So uh, do you guys think Putin will invade Ukraine or what

/r/Conservative and /r/Republican are the prominent safe spaces for Republicans on Reddit, but they’re also brigaded by liberals.

However, I’ve observed their control slipping over the years. Back in the 2016-20 heydey of Trump being a shiny new thing, you’d get banned for not being 100% for Trump in every case.

It’s a little more varied nowadays. Conservative has implemented a rule, "No editorialization of links’, which allows them to selectively ban people who might post the above with commentary questioning whether it was appropriate. Of course, they’ll allow commentary in support. However, the sheer number of malcontents still shows through, and my interpretation is it’s a mixture of brigading, true MAGA discontent, and simply MAGA leaving Reddit.

Both places but especially the safer Conservative space have been trying to crack down, but it’s plugging a thousand holes.

These guys have truly lost their minds.

Zelenskyy is never going to sign it.

Well, we fixed that.

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Silly me getting confused on who started the Ukraine-Russia war.

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so yeah he needs to shut the fuck up

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Out of curiosity… are there credible polls in Ukraine? You’d think that fighting the Russians would make Zelensky a hero, but maybe that’s my American way of thinking.

The guy really doesn’t know when to shut up.

Was hilarious when Tangen (the head of the Norwegian SWF) shut him down and he threw a bit of a fit. See below (sorry ran out of FT free articles)

I just don’t think anybody in his orbit in the US tells him no

Add in X to the mix as a platform, and his ego is spinning out of control as he just uses it to amplify his narcissism.

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A lot of Ukrainians of fighting age (25 onwards) have died so there is also a lot of anger. Most of it towards Russia, but also to the corruption that Ukraine had a lot of (this has improved but it was pretty bad when the war started).

I will try to dig out some polls but his ratings have been coming down over time due the amount of losses that have been happening on the Ukrainian side (personnel and territory)

The quoted 50-55% sounds about right now.

Thing is, what Trump and Musk are now doing (trying to take their sovereign resources) is very much bound to drive those numbers up. Not down.

Also, the US wanted Ukraine to reduce the draft from 25 to 18 and Ukraine refused (this drove numbers up as well)

Wwnnsnmsnm

https://archive.ph/dEJJ5

ai summary
Musk vs. Tangen Dispute: Elon Musk clashed with Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norway’s oil fund, after the fund voted against his $56bn Tesla pay package.
Norway Oil Fund’s Stance: Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), managing $1.7tn in assets, opposed the pay package at Tesla’s 2023 annual meeting.
Declined Dinner Invitation: Tangen invited Musk to a dinner with executives from Ferrari, Novo Nordisk, Nestlé, DoorDash, and Adidas, but Musk declined.
Musk’s Response: Musk told Tangen he wouldn’t do him favors unless Tangen made amends, adding, “Friends are as friends do.”
Released Messages: NBIM published the messages after a freedom of information request, revealing Musk accused Tangen of having political ambitions.
Pay Package Controversy: Musk’s $56bn stock-based pay package, awarded in 2018, was struck down by a Delaware judge in early 2024 and again in December.
Tesla’s Response: Tesla is appealing the ruling, arguing it undermines shareholders’ authority over corporate decisions.
Stock Surge: The package’s value has grown to over $100bn due to a 40% rise in Tesla’s stock since the U.S. election.

I think I saw somewhere that Zelenskyy’s approval numbers had dropped from the 70’s to the low-mid 50’s over the past couple of years, which (just pulling a possible explanation out of thin air) I was attributing to war fatigue.

I do think it is worth remembering that given the conditions associated with war, it is probable that we see a biased picture from our armchairs, and that it’s reasonable to wonder how accurate polling might be.

But if the polling were being “influenced”, I would have expected the current approval ratings to be a bit higher. If approval ratings were the determinant of legitimacy, then Zelenskyy’s at least as legitimate (probably more) than Trump.

I know Zelensky’s approval took a hit last year when he dismissed the popular General Zaluzhnyi, replacing him with General Syrskyi (aka the “Butcher”), but that’s old news now. Certainly over the war Zelensky’s approval has fluctuated, and if memory serves at some points it has dipped below 50%.

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There is a professor over here at the University of Manchester that has been doing Ukraine polling since 2014

She has it at 63% now (this is the update from the 57% that is being quoted in a lot of articles)

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Oh, of course.

And as for the corruption, I recall making a post within a few months of the Russian invasion saying that it would be a mistake to think of the Ukrainians as “the good guys” but that in no way means that they don’t have the right to exist.

If any corruption had been rooted out in the name of fighting Russia then good for them… I hope it continues after the war is over.

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Only Ukraine is in a war, Russia is in the midst of a special operation.

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Sorry. I really have to get my “facts” straight.

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Why’d you make that guy try to kill you in Pennsylvania? And that other guy on that golf course?

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People need to keep comparing tRump to Chamberlain, IMO.

Might backfire when he says that Chamberlain did the right thing.

Not a surprise, I suppose.

image
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/02/21/donald-trump-us-putin-zelensky-ukraine-russia-war-tribunal/

One thing that doesn’t seem to enter into the picture in Russia-Ukraine negotiations is the stress the war is having on Russia. Russian defence spending has gone from 3% to 7% of GDP and that spending does not benefit the average Russian. Official inflation is 9% (might be higher…) and interest rates are 21%. Russia’s oil exports are being sold at discounted prices to India and China and oil prices in general have fallen a bit. The human toll of young men dying in the war is huge.

Trump could put some further heat on Russia to settle the war more favourably for Ukraine through tougher sanctions and embargoes but will he? I think we know the answer given he has already given Russia pretty well everything it wants.

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