I heard a guy at my gym telling his friend Russian propoganda as though it was true. Had to struggle not to get involved because I knew it would escalate quickly.
I wonder how many Russians are true believers. If I were Russian and some journalist asked me what I thought about the invasion and knew I was gonna be on TV for all the secret police to see, I would be extremely tempted to just sound like an idiot and pretend.
Just read the cue cards, like the man demanded.
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Of course, but the folks that I watched spoke out of conviction rather than any fear of retribution. There are, of course, many in the latter camp as well.
I don’t think it’s really knowable currently. Maybe if Russia has a revolution then it’ll become clear but as it stands now no sane Russian is going to be bad-mouthing the war unless they’re intentionally protesting.
I’d take this with a grain of salt, given the control exercised by the government there, but…
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/08/russia-public-opinion-ukraine-invasion/
Edit: I thought I read elsewhere that domestic support of the war in Russia had seemingly increased in recent weeks, but I can’t find a link.
Yikes.
DESPITE a police operation to collect them, corpses were still scattered over Bucha’s streets. The local authorities say that over 300 have been buried in a makeshift mass grave. On April 4th about 30, some in black bags, were still left unburied. A day earlier, reporters had seen bodies, apparently of civilians, littering the roads, up to 20 in one street. As investigators collect evidence of war crimes, The Economist was able to verify reports of what appears to be a summary execution.
Nine bodies lay at the side of a builder’s yard that had been used as a Russian base, and another two on the road linking Bucha with Irpin, two aspiring suburbs of the capital, Kyiv. All had gunshot wounds to the head, the chest or both. At least two of the victims had their hands tied behind their back. From the sweet, putrid smell of the decomposing bodies, they had been there for some time—giving the lie to Russian claims that the killings were carried out by Ukrainian forces, which liberated Bucha on March 31st.
Serhiy Kaplichny, director of the municipal burial service, says he knew one of them. His friend, Andriy Dvornikov, worked as a driver. “His only crime was not immediately accepting Russky mir [the Russian World],” he said, fighting back tears.
Mr Dvornikov’s common-law wife, Yulia Truba, found out about his apparent execution from pictures of the grisly scene published on Facebook. “I recognised his trousers, his trainers, and his tattoos; and it was his back.” That was on April 1st.
The last contact she had with her partner was a phone call four weeks earlier, on March 5th. In hushed tones, he had told her he was in trouble. He’d been caught at a checkpoint when it came under artillery fire. The Russians had encircled them, and he was taking shelter in the basement of a local home along with the seven men manning the checkpoint.
One of the men, Vanya Skyba, described what happened next. Russian soldiers found the group later that evening, and hammered down the door of the shelter. They asked if any had fought in the Donbas or were serving soldiers. “We said no, we were builders. But they moved us to a base on Yablonska street 144. They made us take our clothes off, lie face down, and then they searched our telephones and bodies for symbols and tattoos.”
As an example, to make the group talk, the Russians then killed one of the men—“a short, bespectacled guy from Ivano-Frankivsk,” in Mr Skyba’s words. It worked: one of the rest admitted that he was a member of Ukraine’s territorial defence. Mr Dvornikov, who was no longer a serving soldier, had fought in Donbas in 2015-16. But he had a paratrooper’s tattoo and that would have given away his past.
Mr Skyba, speaking to us on April 4th, says that he and the other men were beaten and tortured, and after a few hours an order was issued to kill them. Some of the soldiers had Asian eyes and strong accents, he said, which led him to assume that they were from Buryatia, in eastern Siberia.
The execution order was itself issued by a man who spoke with a standard Russian accent. “The Buryatis asked what they should do with us. The Russian answered that they should ‘yebashit’ us [‘fucking do them in’]—but to do it away from the base.”
Mr Skyba says that they were led to the side of the building and shot. He took a bullet in the side, but it went through his body. He survived by playing dead on the concrete floor. As soon as he heard there were no voices, he fled over a fence to a nearby home. Some Russian soldiers later found him there, but they were from a different unit, and believed a cover story that he was the owner of the home.
Remarkably, they then led him back to a bomb shelter in the cellar of the same base where he had been shot. Mr Skyba stayed there, along with a dozen or so women and children, for a few days before the soldiers released them. He travelled back to Kyiv on March 9th or 10th, when humanitarian corridors opened.
Many of those in Bucha say that the Russian soldiers were polite. “Some of them even said sorry,” says one. Military defeat may have changed that. On the road linking Bucha with nearby Irpin, the charred remains of a column of Russian hardware stands to this day, the result of a devastating Ukrainian drone and artillery attack. Vehicle engines and detached tank barrels are visible 10 metres either side of the road. A local resident claims that Russian soldiers were later brought to the scene to inspect the carnage.
In the centre of Bucha an elderly woman queuing for food and medicine at the central hospital on Energetykiv Street cries as she remembers the worst of five weeks of Russian occupation. “We tied white ribbons to our arms so they wouldn’t shoot,” she says.
Sounds like 23% like Siberian winters
Just heard an interview with someone in South Trasnistria.
IGOR KOLSA: (Through translator) Yeah, for sure. I always support the Russian.
LANGFITT: Why?
KOLSA: (Through translator) Because they are honest and they are right.
LANGFITT: And what do you think is the best argument for the invasion?
KOLSA: (Through translator) To take out Nazism and fascism in Ukraine.
LANGFITT: Kolsa’s referring to President Putin’s false claim that his soldiers went to Ukraine to denazify by the country. He’s surprised that I don’t seem better-informed.
KOLSA: (Through translator) You don’t see on TV how the Nazis are dealing with the people, how they treat them?
LANGFITT: Give me some examples.
KOLSA: (Through translator) While they were manning the bomb shelters, they manning the roads, they didn’t let the people, you know, to get out of the war. And Russia does opposite. They’re bringing the humanitarian help.
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Sweden and Finland considering abandoning traditional neutral status for NATO membership. Russia replies accordingly.
So, Russia’s offer is “If Finland doesn’t join NATO, we’ll guarantee we won’t put short range nuclear weapons (aka nukes in artillery shells) close to the Baltic and Finnish borders.” ? And, that guarantee will enforced by …
Right, how would this not make Finland rush faster towards NATO?
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“Would be shame if something should happen…”
Any bets on where the war goes from here?
Will Russia win territory in Donbas? Will Russia lose Donbas?
Will Ukraine try to take territory, eg. Crimea? Or otherwise attack Russia?
Will Finland/Sweden/Ukraine join NATO?
Will Europe actually maintain defense spending?
Will Europe/US reduce dependence on Russian oil/gas?
Will Russia continue invasions in 5? 10? 20 years?
Will Russia’s lose grip on the states it occupies/influences?
Will Putin retire/be assassinated?
Will WMDs be used?
Can Taiwan rest easy after this?
Will China step in to take more trade/control/power from Russia?
etc.?
One humorous factoid to come from this mess:
Russia might have lost a piece of the Cross when the Moskva sank.
I mean, I guess some people might not find it that funny. But it’s hilarious to me that folks would choose to put a piece of the cross on board a missile cruiser. So perfectly stupid and typical of humanity and our relationship with God. And the more I think of it the more stupid and absurd and funny it gets.
I’m not sure just how “stupid” a combat multiplier would be.
To illustrate, military chaplains are generally high on the list of individuals to “take out” (not far behind high ranking officers) because of their impact on assuaging the conscience of many soldiers/sailors/marines/airmen to kill another.
I can’t resist.
Yes. No
No, at least not successfully. Not beyond some missile/drone strikes.
Yes. Yes. No.
Temporarily. They need to replace stuff.
Yes, but Europe will be dependent on other nasty places. The oil market will do some musical chairs, Europe finds sources, Russia finds buyers. The US isn’t dependent on Russia.
Looks like “No” for 5-10. My crystal ball refused to comment on 20.
Not in terms of anybody breaking away.
Unfortunately, 50/50
No, absolutely not.
Sure.
Tomorrow, the weather may be different and I may have different answers.
Maybe, I think the lines will probably end up close to where they were when the war started unless something dramatic happens domestically in Russia
I don’t think they’ll take territory but they’ll definitely attack Russia (they already have)
Finland/Sweden yes, Ukraine no
They’ll maintain spending at slightly less embarrassing levels. Honestly the bloody cheek of Germany tying itself to Russian energy WHILE underfunding it’s military more pisses me off than something like the French where they just underfund. Germany was/is royally taking the piss.
Yeah US is done with Russian energy, but it wasn’t much of an ask. Europe will be done with Russian energy over the next couple years, unless Russia throws a tantrum and does it for them first.
Russia won’t do any invasions in/near Europe because they’ll be gutted. Maybe they’ll play in Asia though.
I don’t think Russia will lose its grip on current occupied territories outside of Ukraine
I think there’s a material (25-50%) chance Putin is assassinated in the next 2 years
I think it’s incredibly unlikely WMDs get used
I think Taiwan is sweating, but less so than the first week of the war
China is tough to predict, they’ll do whatever they think politically benefits China. Probably siding with Russia to eat their scraps, as they’ve been doing.
I think my thought process went:
- It’s stupid to put the most valuable thing you own on a missile cruiser.
- It’s idolatry.
- It’s stupid stupid stupid stupid stupid to think the King Of Peace wants to be a literal physical figurehead in our turf wars.
- If Christians gave a fuck about Jesus, they would put the cross ANYWHERE BUT a missile cruiser. You might as well piss on it. In fact pissing on it would be way less offensive than sticking it on a warship.
I get that the Russian Orthodox take is that God blesses their wars and that Jesus gives them super combat powers. And that’s exactly how Christianity (and every religion) has been used in numerous wars and crusades and genocides throughout history. Like Allah, Jesus is the great justifier for murder. But this particular story is just SO profoundly backwards that it’s impossible for me not to laugh.
“They say Jesus died on the cross for our sins, so I guess the cross gives us bonus sinning powers???” ~humanity