Random Thoughts

Even thought I have no interest in sports, and no interest in betting, I made my first wager just now in at attempt to make some arbitrage profits.

Starting small with my first opportunity, I put $100 on one side with one betting site and $74 on the other another side with another betting site and I think I am guaranteed to win $18.

#retirementincome

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can i invest in your inevitable blockchain-enabled sports betting arbitrage conglomerate?

Free money is good.
Curious though, if you don’t like sports, nor betting, what were you doing on not one, but two betting sites?

A single site is not going to be likely to devise odds that subject itself to arbitrage frequently. But multiple sites will have different odds and opportunities may arise. Anytime you think of arbitrage you would buy from A and sell to B right? You would expect two players to be involved. There are sites out there that consolidate the information and make it easier to find these opportunities.

Yeah, I see two different sites offering more opportunity, just surprised you would find it if you aren’t generally into sports betting. The last sentence of your post makes sense though. Consider my curiosity sated.

One site is pricing in a 52.2% probability that a team will score less than X. I bet $100 on that with a payout of $192. A different site is pricing in a 38.5% probability that the team will score more than X. I bet $74 on that with a payout of $192. So I spent $174 and guaranteed a payout of $192.

Getting the money in the betting sites didn’t take too long, and there could be six of them involved. I only have money in two so far. I’ll add more accounts as the opportunities arise. I have a simple sixty-second spreadsheet set up to calculate the bets and from here on once I find something it takes like two minutes to purchase the bets.

So you’re lose both bets if they score exactly X. Isn’t that the house advantage and the missing piece of your arbitrage? I’m guessing that’s worth the $18 you’re supposedly guaranteed.

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also, if this goes well and we’re all just dumb-dums who don’t get the new math, you could be the next Sam Bankman-Fried!!!

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So are you (self) limited in bet size?

Unfortunately I am in a no online gambling state, so I can’t take advantage.

TGIF.

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I didn’t realize one of my roles in life would be eating/drinking stuff so it ā€œdoesn’t go to waste.ā€

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Fatherhood, amirite?

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Never give up on your wildest hours and dreams. After all, someone wrote ā€œThe Bee Movieā€ and got paid - probably good money - for doing it.

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This is like the roulette wheel when people bet on both red and black and then get really mad when it comes up green.

I remember working the roulette wheel at a charity event and repeatedly having to explain this to people. :woman_facepalming:

Not sure exactly what his bet is here, but typically if you hit the exact number on an over/under bet it’s a push and there is no winner. Money gets returned.

I’m watching a show about illegal stuff, on Netflix. One of them was on gun running from the us to the drug cartels.
Two interesting points.

First their claim was that the US is itself causing all the illegal immigration. Mexico and Central America aren’t running to the US, they’re running from all the violence caused by US guns in their country.

Secondly, apparently a lot of those guns are coming directly from street level police in the US. Police confiscate a gun, and it immediately gets sold to a runner.

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Let’s call in the Closer to finish this one out!

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One important item missing from this sentence is the US war on drugs. We exported both guns and the drug war to neighboring countries

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I feel spacey.

He’s apparently done that a lot

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