Seems to be a bit of pushback from top Euro teams allowing their players to travel by plane to Africa and South America, then when they return have to isolate for 10 days.
I think summer would be a better time for qualifiers instead of Euro and Gold Cup and Copa America, if this turns out to be a major issue.
(It would be another thing if players (all of them) jumped the line for vaccinations. It IS essential for soccer to go on, isn’t it??)
(And it might affect my entries in this contest.)
I’m really sorry about the delays. Had some personal issues to get through.
Here are the March matches for projection. Deadline is March 22, 2021 at 11:59 pm EDT.
You can make your projections in this thread or via Private Message to me. Please include the MatchID and a score of the format X-X — you can include other information if it’s easier for you, but I need at least those two pieces of info.
Thanks and good luck!
Round
Group
MatchID
Neutral Site?
Date
Home
Away
CONCACAF1
A
0001
N
3/24/2021
Antigua and Barbuda
Montserrat
CONCACAF1
B
0011
N
3/24/2021
Suriname
Cayman Islands
CONCACAF1
C
0021
N
3/24/2021
Guatemala
Cuba
CONCACAF1
D
0031
N
3/24/2021
Dominican Republic
Dominica
CONCACAF1
E
0041
N
3/24/2021
Nicaragua
St. Lucia
CONCACAF1
F
0051
N
3/24/2021
St. Kitts and Nevis
Puerto Rico
UEFA1
A
0123
N
3/24/2021
Portugal
Azerbaijan
UEFA1
A
0124
N
3/24/2021
Serbia
Republic of Ireland
UEFA1
D
0183
N
3/24/2021
Finland
Bosnia and Herzegovina
UEFA1
D
0184
N
3/24/2021
France
Ukraine
UEFA1
E
0203
N
3/24/2021
Estonia
Czech Republic
UEFA1
E
0204
N
3/24/2021
Belgium
Wales
UEFA1
G
0253
N
3/24/2021
Turkey
Netherlands
UEFA1
G
0254
N
3/24/2021
Gibraltar
Norway
UEFA1
G
0255
N
3/24/2021
Latvia
Montenegro
UEFA1
H
0283
N
3/24/2021
Cyprus
Slovakia
UEFA1
H
0284
N
3/24/2021
Malta
Russia
UEFA1
H
0285
N
3/24/2021
Slovenia
Croatia
CONCACAF1
A
0002
N
3/25/2021
El Salvador
Grenada
CONCACAF1
B
0012
N
3/25/2021
Canada
Bermuda
CONCACAF1
C
0022
N
3/25/2021
Curaçao
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
CONCACAF1
D
0032
N
3/25/2021
Panama
Barbados
CONCACAF1
E
0042
N
3/25/2021
Haiti
Belize
CONCACAF1
F
0052
N
3/25/2021
Trinidad and Tobago
Guyana
UEFA1
B
0143
N
3/25/2021
Spain
Greece
UEFA1
B
0144
N
3/25/2021
Sweden
Georgia
UEFA1
C
0163
N
3/25/2021
Bulgaria
Switzerland
UEFA1
C
0164
N
3/25/2021
Italy
Northern Ireland
UEFA1
F
0223
N
3/25/2021
Israel
Denmark
UEFA1
F
0224
N
3/25/2021
Moldova
Faroe Islands
UEFA1
F
0225
N
3/25/2021
Scotland
Austria
UEFA1
I
0313
N
3/25/2021
Andorra
Albania
UEFA1
I
0314
N
3/25/2021
England
San Marino
UEFA1
I
0315
N
3/25/2021
Hungary
Poland
UEFA1
J
0343
N
3/25/2021
Germany
Iceland
UEFA1
J
0344
N
3/25/2021
Liechtenstein
Armenia
UEFA1
J
0345
N
3/25/2021
Romania
North Macedonia
CONCACAF1
A
0003
N
3/27/2021
US Virgin Islands
Antigua and Barbuda
CONCACAF1
B
0013
N
3/27/2021
Aruba
Suriname
CONCACAF1
C
0023
N
3/27/2021
British Virgin Islands
Guatemala
CONCACAF1
D
0033
N
3/27/2021
Anguilla
Dominican Republic
CONCACAF1
E
0043
N
3/27/2021
Turks and Caicos Islands
Nicaragua
CONCACAF1
F
0053
N
3/27/2021
Bahamas
St. Kitts and Nevis
UEFA1
A
0125
N
3/27/2021
Republic of Ireland
Luxembourg
UEFA1
A
0126
N
3/27/2021
Serbia
Portugal
UEFA1
E
0205
N
3/27/2021
Belarus
Estonia
UEFA1
E
0206
N
3/27/2021
Czech Republic
Belgium
UEFA1
G
0256
N
3/27/2021
Montenegro
Gibraltar
UEFA1
G
0257
N
3/27/2021
Norway
Turkey
UEFA1
G
0258
N
3/27/2021
Netherlands
Latvia
UEFA1
H
0286
N
3/27/2021
Russia
Slovenia
UEFA1
H
0287
N
3/27/2021
Croatia
Cyprus
UEFA1
H
0288
N
3/27/2021
Slovakia
Malta
CONCACAF1
A
0004
N
3/28/2021
Montserrat
El Salvador
CONCACAF1
B
0014
N
3/28/2021
Cayman Islands
Canada
CONCACAF1
C
0024
N
3/28/2021
Cuba
Curaçao
CONCACAF1
D
0034
N
3/28/2021
Dominica
Panama
CONCACAF1
E
0044
N
3/28/2021
St. Lucia
Haiti
CONCACAF1
F
0054
N
3/28/2021
Puerto Rico
Trinidad and Tobago
UEFA1
B
0145
N
3/28/2021
Georgia
Spain
UEFA1
B
0146
N
3/28/2021
Kosovo
Sweden
UEFA1
C
0165
N
3/28/2021
Bulgaria
Italy
UEFA1
C
0166
N
3/28/2021
Switzerland
Lithuania
UEFA1
D
0185
N
3/28/2021
Kazakhstan
France
UEFA1
D
0186
N
3/28/2021
Ukraine
Finland
UEFA1
F
0226
N
3/28/2021
Denmark
Moldova
UEFA1
F
0227
N
3/28/2021
Austria
Faroe Islands
UEFA1
F
0228
N
3/28/2021
Israel
Scotland
UEFA1
I
0316
N
3/28/2021
Albania
England
UEFA1
I
0317
N
3/28/2021
Poland
Andorra
UEFA1
I
0318
N
3/28/2021
San Marino
Hungary
UEFA1
J
0346
N
3/28/2021
Armenia
Iceland
UEFA1
J
0347
N
3/28/2021
North Macedonia
Liechtenstein
UEFA1
J
0348
N
3/28/2021
Romania
Germany
CONCACAF1
A
0005
N
3/30/2021
Grenada
US Virgin Islands
CONCACAF1
B
0015
N
3/30/2021
Bermuda
Aruba
CONCACAF1
C
0025
N
3/30/2021
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
British Virgin Islands
CONCACAF1
D
0035
N
3/30/2021
Barbados
Anguilla
CONCACAF1
E
0045
N
3/30/2021
Belize
Turks and Caicos Islands
CONCACAF1
F
0055
N
3/30/2021
Guyana
Bahamas
UEFA1
A
0127
N
3/30/2021
Azerbaijan
Serbia
UEFA1
A
0128
N
3/30/2021
Luxembourg
Portugal
UEFA1
E
0207
N
3/30/2021
Belgium
Belarus
UEFA1
E
0208
N
3/30/2021
Wales
Czech Republic
UEFA1
G
0259
N
3/30/2021
Gibraltar
Netherlands
UEFA1
G
0260
N
3/30/2021
Montenegro
Norway
UEFA1
G
0261
N
3/30/2021
Turkey
Latvia
UEFA1
H
0289
N
3/30/2021
Cyprus
Slovenia
UEFA1
H
0290
N
3/30/2021
Croatia
Malta
UEFA1
H
0291
N
3/30/2021
Slovakia
Russia
UEFA1
B
0147
N
3/31/2021
Greece
Georgia
UEFA1
B
0148
N
3/31/2021
Spain
Kosovo
UEFA1
C
0167
N
3/31/2021
Lithuania
Italy
UEFA1
C
0168
N
3/31/2021
Northern Ireland
Bulgaria
UEFA1
D
0187
N
3/31/2021
Bosnia and Herzegovina
France
UEFA1
D
0188
N
3/31/2021
Ukraine
Kazakhstan
UEFA1
F
0229
N
3/31/2021
Austria
Denmark
UEFA1
F
0230
N
3/31/2021
Moldova
Israel
UEFA1
F
0231
N
3/31/2021
Scotland
Faroe Islands
UEFA1
I
0319
N
3/31/2021
Andorra
Hungray
UEFA1
I
0320
N
3/31/2021
England
Poland
UEFA1
I
0321
N
3/31/2021
San Marino
Albania
UEFA1
J
0349
N
3/31/2021
Armenia
Romania
UEFA1
J
0350
N
3/31/2021
Germany
North Macedonia
UEFA1
J
0351
N
3/31/2021
Liechtenstein
Iceland
2 Likes
Can you help me with this formula? It seems to be giving probabilities > 1. Also clarifying - is the homerating the total point with FIFA, or the rank of the team? Maybe you can do an example of the probability for Antigua and Barbuda vs Montserrat so I can follow it?
Here is a few lines of the spreadsheet:
Round
Group
Game #
Neutral Site?
Date
Home
Score
Away
Score
FIFA Rank Hm
FIFA Rank Rd
WinHome
WinRoad
Home Pts
Road Pts
HomeScPts
RoadScPts
CONCACAF1
A
0001
N
3/24/2021
Antigua and Barbuda
Montserrat
1127
921
76.39%
23.61%
7.21
12.79
7
7
CONCACAF1
A
0002
N
3/25/2021
El Salvador
Grenada
1344
1015
83.84%
16.16%
5.42
14.58
7
7
CONCACAF1
A
0003
N
3/27/2021
US Virgin Islands
Antigua and Barbuda
844
1127
33.13%
66.87%
11
9
7
7
CONCACAF1
A
0004
N
3/28/2021
Montserrat
El Salvador
921
1344
22.45%
77.55%
13
7
7
7
CONCACAF1
A
0005
N
3/30/2021
Grenada
US Virgin Islands
1015
844
73.89%
26.11%
7.72
12.28
7
7
The exact formula in the sheet is:
=1/(10^(-(K3+if(D3=“N”,100,0)-L3)/600)+1) [K3 is FIFA Rank Hm, L3 is FIFA Rank Rd), D3 is neutral site? y/n)
If it is helpful I can post all the probabilities that are being used, but I thought that might be overwhelming.
Got it now - thanks! The formula in post one said 1 + at the start instead of 1 / so I was confused. I match your numbers now
Interestingly, these two games on 3/24 have the exact same probabilities-
Suriname vs Cayman Islands
Guatemala vs Cuba
Yeah, I can’t edit post one anymore, sorry about that.
Last question - draws. Do I get any points if I correctly pick a draw? Or do I need to pick a winner one way or the other to get those points?
Yes, I had a plan for draws and I apparently never posted it. I’ll try to find it tonight and post it ASAP. I believe it was scaled from something like 5 points for a correct draw if the teams were exactly 50/50, up to 15 points for a correct draw prediction if it was more than 75/25 one way or the other.
Draw points awarded for correctly guessing a draw (M and N are the probabilities of winning for each team)
if(max(M3:N3)>0.75,15,5+10*(max(M3:N3)-0.5)/0.25)
Seems that CONMEBOL is discussing playing matches in Europe. In short, some leagues are more important than others, and their players’ matches post-travel are more important.
Also, The God is back on SWE team. Please make a note of it.
IPD
March 22, 2021, 3:51pm
39
|MatchID|Neutral Site?|Date|Home|Away|Score|
|0001|N|3/24/2021|Antigua and Barbuda|Montserrat|3-1|
|0011|N|3/24/2021|Suriname|Cayman Islands|5-0|
|0021|N|3/24/2021|Guatemala|Cuba|1-1|
|0031|N|3/24/2021|Dominican Republic|Dominica|0-0|
|0041|N|3/24/2021|Nicaragua|St. Lucia|2-1|
|0051|N|3/24/2021|St. Kitts and Nevis|Puerto Rico|1-0|
|0123|N|3/24/2021|Portugal|Azerbaijan|3-0|
|0124|N|3/24/2021|Serbia|Republic of Ireland|1-1|
|0183|N|3/24/2021|Finland|Bosnia and Herzegovina|2-1|
|0184|N|3/24/2021|France|Ukraine|2-0|
|0203|N|3/24/2021|Estonia|Czech Republic|0-2|
|0204|N|3/24/2021|Belgium|Wales|1-0|
|0253|N|3/24/2021|Turkey|Netherlands|1-1|
|0254|N|3/24/2021|Gibraltar|Norway|0-4|
|0255|N|3/24/2021|Latvia|Montenegro|1-2|
|0283|N|3/24/2021|Cyprus|Slovakia|1-2|
|0284|N|3/24/2021|Malta|Russia|1-3|
|0285|N|3/24/2021|Slovenia|Croatia|1-1|
|0002|N|3/25/2021|El Salvador|Grenada|1-1|
|0012|N|3/25/2021|Canada|Bermuda|3-0|
|0022|N|3/25/2021|Curaçao|St. Vincent and the Grenadines|1-1|
|0032|N|3/25/2021|Panama|Barbados|4-0|
|0042|N|3/25/2021|Haiti|Belize|1-2|
|0052|N|3/25/2021|Trinidad and Tobago|Guyana|2-1|
|0143|N|3/25/2021|Spain|Greece|2-0|
|0144|N|3/25/2021|Sweden|Georgia|2-1|
|0163|N|3/25/2021|Bulgaria|Switzerland|0-0|
|0164|N|3/25/2021|Italy|Northern Ireland|3-1|
|0223|N|3/25/2021|Israel|Denmark|2-2|
|0224|N|3/25/2021|Moldova|Faroe Islands|1-0|
|0225|N|3/25/2021|Scotland|Austria|2-0|
|0313|N|3/25/2021|Andorra|Albania|2-4|
|0314|N|3/25/2021|England|San Marino|8-0|
|0315|N|3/25/2021|Hungary|Poland|2-1|
|0343|N|3/25/2021|Germany|Iceland|3-1|
|0344|N|3/25/2021|Liechtenstein|Armenia|2-3|
|0345|N|3/25/2021|Romania|North Macedonia|1-1|
|0003|N|3/27/2021|US Virgin Islands|Antigua and Barbuda|0-3|
|0013|N|3/27/2021|Aruba|Suriname|2-2|
|0023|N|3/27/2021|British Virgin Islands|Guatemala|1-3|
|0033|N|3/27/2021|Anguilla|Dominican Republic|0-1|
|0043|N|3/27/2021|Turks and Caicos Islands|Nicaragua|0-2|
|0053|N|3/27/2021|Bahamas|St. Kitts and Nevis|1-1|
|0125|N|3/27/2021|Republic of Ireland|Luxembourg|1-0|
|0126|N|3/27/2021|Serbia|Portugal|0-1|
|0205|N|3/27/2021|Belarus|Estonia|1-1|
|0206|N|3/27/2021|Czech Republic|Belgium|2-1|
|0256|N|3/27/2021|Montenegro|Gibraltar|2-0|
|0257|N|3/27/2021|Norway|Turkey|2-1|
|0258|N|3/27/2021|Netherlands|Latvia|2-1|
|0286|N|3/27/2021|Russia|Slovenia|2-0|
|0287|N|3/27/2021|Croatia|Cyprus|3-0|
|0288|N|3/27/2021|Slovakia|Malta|2-1|
|0004|N|3/28/2021|Montserrat|El Salvador|0-3|
|0014|N|3/28/2021|Cayman Islands|Canada|1-3|
|0024|N|3/28/2021|Cuba|Curaçao|0-1|
|0034|N|3/28/2021|Dominica|Panama|1-2|
|0044|N|3/28/2021|St. Lucia|Haiti|1-2|
|0054|N|3/28/2021|Puerto Rico|Trinidad and Tobago|1-2|
|0145|N|3/28/2021|Georgia|Spain|0-2|
|0146|N|3/28/2021|Kosovo|Sweden|1-1|
|0165|N|3/28/2021|Bulgaria|Italy|0-1|
|0166|N|3/28/2021|Switzerland|Lithuania|2-0|
|0185|N|3/28/2021|Kazakhstan|France|0-3|
|0186|N|3/28/2021|Ukraine|Finland|1-1|
|0226|N|3/28/2021|Denmark|Moldova|5-0|
|0227|N|3/28/2021|Austria|Faroe Islands|3-0|
|0228|N|3/28/2021|Israel|Scotland|2-2|
|0316|N|3/28/2021|Albania|England|1-2|
|0317|N|3/28/2021|Poland|Andorra|4-0|
|0318|N|3/28/2021|San Marino|Hungary|0-3|
|0346|N|3/28/2021|Armenia|Iceland|0-1|
|0347|N|3/28/2021|North Macedonia|Liechtenstein|0-0|
|0348|N|3/28/2021|Romania|Germany|2-3|
|0005|N|3/30/2021|Grenada|US Virgin Islands|1-1|
|0015|N|3/30/2021|Bermuda|Aruba|2-0|
|0025|N|3/30/2021|St. Vincent and the Grenadines|British Virgin Islands|1-0|
|0035|N|3/30/2021|Barbados|Anguilla|3-2|
|0045|N|3/30/2021|Belize|Turks and Caicos Islands|1-2|
|0055|N|3/30/2021|Guyana|Bahamas|2-2|
|0127|N|3/30/2021|Azerbaijan|Serbia|1-2|
|0128|N|3/30/2021|Luxembourg|Portugal|0-4|
|0207|N|3/30/2021|Belgium|Belarus|1-0|
|0208|N|3/30/2021|Wales|Czech Republic|2-2|
|0259|N|3/30/2021|Gibraltar|Netherlands|0-3|
|0260|N|3/30/2021|Montenegro|Norway|2-0|
|0261|N|3/30/2021|Turkey|Latvia|1-1|
|0289|N|3/30/2021|Cyprus|Slovenia|0-0|
|0290|N|3/30/2021|Croatia|Malta|3-0|
|0291|N|3/30/2021|Slovakia|Russia|2-0|
|0147|N|3/31/2021|Greece|Georgia|1-0|
|0148|N|3/31/2021|Spain|Kosovo|3-0|
|0167|N|3/31/2021|Lithuania|Italy|1-2|
|0168|N|3/31/2021|Northern Ireland|Bulgaria|0-1|
|0187|N|3/31/2021|Bosnia and Herzegovina|France|0-2|
|0188|N|3/31/2021|Ukraine|Kazakhstan|1-1|
|0229|N|3/31/2021|Austria|Denmark|0-1|
|0230|N|3/31/2021|Moldova|Israel|2-3|
|0231|N|3/31/2021|Scotland|Faroe Islands|2-0|
|0319|N|3/31/2021|Andorra|Hungary|1-3|
|0320|N|3/31/2021|England|Poland|2-1|
|0321|N|3/31/2021|San Marino|Albania|0-4|
|0349|N|3/31/2021|Armenia|Romania|1-0|
|0350|N|3/31/2021|Germany|North Macedonia|3-1|
|0351|N|3/31/2021|Liechtenstein|Iceland|0-1|
I don’t know how to format on this site…