Qatar 2022 World Cup Qualifying Prediction Contest (abridged version)

OK, I’ve been back for less than a week, and have had multiple people ask about this, so let’s do this. Some of the confederations have started already, so the 2022 version is going to be slightly abridged. We’ll contest the CONCACAF, UEFA, and OFC regions, plus the international playoffs. 416 games are scheduled to be played. If it goes well, we’ll go back to the full 6 confederation version for North America 2026.

Scoring Rules

  1. I will be using the FIFA Men’s World Football Rankings to calculate the probability of winning. The FIFA rankings will be locked down when I open a block of game for projections. The probability of the home team winning the game is: 1 + (10^({homerating+100-awayrating}/600)+1). If the game is neutral site, then the 100 point bonus does not apply.

  2. Points awarded for correctly predicting the favorite to win the game is 10* (1 - (1-winprob)^2). The points awarded for correctly predicting the underdog is 20 - favorite points.

  3. If you correctly guess the score of a team, you gain bonus points of:

     3 if the teams win probability was less than 15%,
    10 if the teams win probability was greater than 85%, or
     7 otherwise.
  4. Your predictions of the games will also be used to create predicted standings of the various groups. You will gain bonus points as follows:

    75 points if you correctly predict a team to qualify for the World Cup from a group stage
    50 points if you correctly predict a team to advance to a future round
    50 points if you correctly predict a team to win a playoff tie to qualify for a World Cup
    25 points if you correctly predict a team to qualify for a playoff tie

Other Rules

  1. Matches will be live for prediction for approximately one month. I will make a post in the thread when new matches go live, and when there is around one week left to make a prediction. Unless you state otherwise, I will tag people missing predictions in the warning post.

  2. You may change predictions at anytime while the predictions are live, but to do so you should make a completely new post.

  3. To make predictions, please use the template I post below in this post.

  4. In the event of match postponements or cancellations, I will make judgement on what is the fairest course of action.

Current Scores

Stay Tuned!

Matches currently available for prediction

None. Next expected match update is 1 February 2021

Google Sheets with results and calculations (view access only):

1 Like

OMG - how did I miss this. You just made my day. If my Member-Member didn’t start Friday, it would have definitely made my week, so I’ll note my week so far!

Just bumping to see if there is interest. Need to start working on the March window matches this week if there is some interest!

1 Like


Looks like it might be just me and you, but I’ll put together the March matchday’s prediction sheet this weekend.

I’ll join. Others might straggle in yet.

1 Like

There will be others. Let me ping another thread.

OFC delayed the start of their qualifiers to the June window, so it’ll just be CONCACAF and UEFA matches to predict in February - March.

I can’t seem to edit the first post — but I changed the format slightly so the line above doesn’t make sense, so you won’t get that.

I’ll play, with the caveat that my soccer knowledge is limited to watching the US and Mexico play in the World Cup every four years.

The first match is Antigua & Barbuda vs Montserrat. None of us have a damn clue what is going on — what is fun about this contest is the sheer randomness and length of it.

Can’t get the file at work or I’d play. Many restrictions on downloads and all that these days.

Wait I can open it on my phone… going to see if I can figure out the rules and join in!

You won’t need to access the file to play — it’ll just make it easier to see how it’s being scored. I’ll make a post with the matches to predict and you can predict them in this thread.


MH, please tell us what we have to do, and by when.

Oh wow just saw this. Im in

I’ll be posting the first round of games to project in the next few days. I think the first games a 3/24, so the deadline will probably be 3/22 to make score projections.

Cool. Thanks.

Bump, for more potential interest.

Oops — forgot to do this last weekend. I’ll get this up in the next day or two. How is it March already!!!