OK, I’ve been back for less than a week, and have had multiple people ask about this, so let’s do this. Some of the confederations have started already, so the 2022 version is going to be slightly abridged. We’ll contest the CONCACAF, UEFA, and OFC regions, plus the international playoffs. 416 games are scheduled to be played. If it goes well, we’ll go back to the full 6 confederation version for North America 2026.
Scoring Rules
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I will be using the FIFA Men’s World Football Rankings to calculate the probability of winning. The FIFA rankings will be locked down when I open a block of game for projections. The probability of the home team winning the game is: 1 + (10^({homerating+100-awayrating}/600)+1). If the game is neutral site, then the 100 point bonus does not apply.
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Points awarded for correctly predicting the favorite to win the game is 10* (1 - (1-winprob)^2). The points awarded for correctly predicting the underdog is 20 - favorite points.
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If you correctly guess the score of a team, you gain bonus points of:
3 if the teams win probability was less than 15%, 10 if the teams win probability was greater than 85%, or 7 otherwise. -
Your predictions of the games will also be used to create predicted standings of the various groups. You will gain bonus points as follows:
75 points if you correctly predict a team to qualify for the World Cup from a group stage 50 points if you correctly predict a team to advance to a future round 50 points if you correctly predict a team to win a playoff tie to qualify for a World Cup 25 points if you correctly predict a team to qualify for a playoff tie
Other Rules
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Matches will be live for prediction for approximately one month. I will make a post in the thread when new matches go live, and when there is around one week left to make a prediction. Unless you state otherwise, I will tag people missing predictions in the warning post.
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You may change predictions at anytime while the predictions are live, but to do so you should make a completely new post.
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To make predictions, please use the template I post below in this post.
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In the event of match postponements or cancellations, I will make judgement on what is the fairest course of action.
Current Scores
Stay Tuned!
Matches currently available for prediction
None. Next expected match update is 1 February 2021
Google Sheets with results and calculations (view access only):
