Looks like abortion is about to get outlawed across America

I doubt it. Unless you went to my high school…

Ok, I wasn’t sure if you were referring to Glee. Except Quinn had to quit cheerleading, not show choir, IIRC.

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Possibly. I don’t remember the time of year or whether that would have been much of an issue.

I seem to recall that her parents took her out of the school, but like I said, I didn’t know her well.

But the chart shows that our abortion rate is still lower than Bulgaria, Seychelles, Mongolia, Hungary, China, Cuba, Latvia, Ukraine, Romania, Belarus, Estonia, Kazakhstan, Vietnam and Russia!

What a terrible heat map. Anyway, I think it’s hard to make a lot of sense out of given big variances in race, income, culture, and population density. Certainly it’s not great.

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BTW, I went ahead and made a post for this tangent:

A pretty misleading graph, IMO. It give the impression that abortion rates are “higher” than birth rates, when the case is that the “lowest point(s)” of birth rates are well above the “highest point(s)” of abortion rates.

I thought it was obvious… but… maybe not for everybody.

Not sure which of the graphs you’re looking at but I didn’t see anything stating that abortions exceeded live births? I agree live births exceed abortions.

He was referring to my graph, which has a split-axis for birth-rate and a normal axis for abortion-rate. It is definitely a weird graph.

I agree heat map is pretty bad but there are some other interesting graphs.

Looking at the variations by country made me think about why different countries ranked the way they did. All the factors you mention come into play in different ways for different countries. I would add public health measures to your list as there is a wide range between countries on pregnancy education and provision of contraceptives, etc.

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Thanks. I failed to notice who was referring to whom’s post in this very active thread. Agreed it is a weird graph.

I think we are having some confusion over the word “should”.

I think you are saying that you don’t believe it’s right for the termination of a pregnancy to be used by law enforcement as probable cause of a crime.

I was reading it that you didn’t think in our current system of laws that the termination of a pregnancy would quality as probable cause.

I think you underestimate how many people think gay marriage is ana abomination.

Completely unsurprising.

Before this ruling, we didn’t face that issue. Now we do. Thanks new justices.

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I think it has to be some mixture of these three. It’s not like ethics is completely personal while law is not. And both are intimately connected, both historically, and within specific judgement.

Throwing away precedent by the supreme court is always going to an exercise in personal power by the justices.

My point is that to argue this is ok because it will allow some kind of better political consensus- an empirical claim that i doubt, by the way- in no way justifies overturning precedent. Either the precedent was bad law, or it was not. And it’s status of law will. have to depend on whether it is just, which will depend on ethics. You cannot argue the politics.

What this particular leaked opinion seems to do is to act as if the law of abortion is clear. This makes it seem even more like this particular overturning of precedent is an exercise in personal political power.

The rumored approach of john roberts, to “hedge roe” back and only allow a 15 week ban without completely overturning roe, would have at least given lip service to the idea that there is some rational synthesis of the two sides. It might have allowed some degree of the suspension of disbelief to continue that judges just “call strikes and calls.”

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plus, let’s not pretend people were on board with interracial marriage after it was legalized

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Not to completely gang up on you…but… IMO Brown V Board reflected a huge and permanent cultural shift across the country. While here the culture hasn’t changed, but rather a couple Justices were promised to a minority of voters to deliver this specific result.

This seems much more like a political maneuver than a reflection of anything permanent, and more open to flip-flopping if the Rs ever lose scotus power. And even if the Rs keep SCOTUS power for decades, there’s the fact that religion is dying in the US, and with it the desire to criminalize abortion.

I think the US can live with this decision, but the next generation is going to scratch their head at it, to say the least.

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You are probably right about Brown. That cultural shift certainly didn’t cover the entire country but you could easily account for 60% or more.

With Roe the legal shift happened before the cultural shift reached that level. It also went farther than the cultural shift even came close to reaching. Something like 75% of the country now thinks there should be restrictions on abortion even in the 2nd trimester. Casey has problems because viability has become earlier by a lot due to improved medical technology. I think those issues are a large part of the reason abortion is still such a big issue. Roe cut off almost any debate with substantial ramifications other than in front of SCOTUS.

From a legal standpoint the reasoning that underpins Roe was exceptionally weak for such an important decision. Roe doesn’t stand well on its own as a matter of law and overturning it is from a strictly legal standpoint probably the right thing to do. From an ethical standpoint, I believe woman should have a right to choose with some reasonable restrictions regarding timing. From a political standpoint, this sucks. The Democrats were well on their way to getting epically hammered in the midterms and a certain 1-term POTUS run. This gives them an issue to rally around. I would have preferred that didn’t happen.

I think I agree broadly, except I don’t see how this will fix anything. It’s not a solution, just a point scored. And I think the idea of Stare Decisis is you need to do more than that?

It’s so wild to me that before 1995 most people were against interracial marriage. I had no idea it was the recent. It really harms people who make the argument that racism hasn’t been a problem in America for long time.

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You are correct that most Americans think there should be some restrictions on second trimester abortions, but that’s only part of the story. A very small minority believe abortion should be completely illegal or illegal in most cases, but that’s where we are headed in a large part of the country. A fairly substantial majority believes abortion should be largely legal in the first trimester.