Israel - Hamas War October 2023

I agree with both of the comments above. There is also a third issue: the right of return. In past episodes of mass expulsion/exodus of Palestinians during times of conflict, Israel has denied them the right of return after the dust settled. This article discusses that perspective:

I like to think that I was a liberal during my university years and it was a time of great unrest (1968 to 1972). I also like to think my liberal outlook has not been diminished by my subsequent years of real world experience. :grinning_face:

Somehow the Palestinians are the only group that has multi-generational right of return. No other refugee group has had this. That happens to include the roughly 750k-800k Jews (and their descendents) expelled from Arab countries in the time around the 1948 war between them and Israel.

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Given the history that Palestinians have been denied any right of return if they flee from conflict, you can understand why other countries would be unwilling to provide temporary assistance to refugees as it almost certainly would become permanent.

Seems that the EU has now reached a rare agreement on their response to the current humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

Its evident that there needs to be some sort of evacuation (too much infrastructure has been destroyed), but I just don’t see where (as posted by others it seems unlikely that Egypt and Jordan will take them in).

You mean other than usually supplying them with free water, fuel, electricity? While they elect a group that has pledged to terrorize civilians to destroy Israel?

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Thats not really how it works.

Those “supplies” are strictly controlled by Israel. So the folks in Gaza are effectively on a leash.

If you turn this around and ask yourself: would any sovereign entity tolerate having their critical infrastructure controlled by another group (who could turn it off with a few buttons)?

The answer is no. It would never be tolerated.

Case in point below. Now you will very likely see many more people die because of water-borne diseases (from sewage and lack of sanitation), given that they will spread given the high levels of population density.

Want to make it clear here: the entire world (US included) will turn against Israel politically if 50,000+ people die from disease because it was 100% avoidable. This is a choice Israel made and they will be held culpable for the consequences.

According to Al Jazeera, Dahdouh’s family members were killed by an Israeli airstrike that hit Nuseirat Refugee Camp, located in an area of Gaza where the military had encouraged people to go to stay safe. It said a number of other relatives were still missing, and it remained unclear how many others were killed.

It appears, after a little time’s now passed, Israel likely did not target the family of this correspondent. There was speculation after the US pressured Al Jazeera to report Israeli activities less critically and Israel has threatened to have Al Jazeera shut down. From what I see there is no proof of targeting the family.

It does appear to be a bombing by Israel of a refugee camp they designated as safe to flee to.

In case you are wondering where I am getting the 50,000 number.

The CFR for Cholera is 2-4% mortality in non-western developing countries.

Latest outbreak in Nigeria had a CFR of 3.5%

Case study from Nigeria (also young population)

Yes, “usually supplying” water in an area Palestinians are forced to live in where 95% of the water is considered unfit for human consumption.

Edit: I should clarify my statement. They used to, and in the sense that it’s non-zero still do help innocent Palestinians. I wasn’t really considering providing basic necessities of life after creating the condition of having no such necessities as “helping”, more “allowing to generally not die.”

Just to throw another wrinkle into the whole aid into Gaza situation, it appears that there are supplies in Gaza. Just not for civilians, and I am sure that the Israeli govt is going to be wary of sending in supplies that Hamas can co-opt.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/27/us/politics/palestine-gazans-hamas-food.html?unlocked_article_code=1.50w.RhkO.DxhtNqilIicl&smid=url-share

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Not sure how Hamas stockpiling crap is relevant. It’s already accepted that Hamas is bad. Why does that inform Israeli actions?

Again, I think the solution lies in making it a world problem not an Israel problem. Before you dismiss the potential there,consider the international efforts surrounding Sarajevo in the 90s.

Long,long, basically ancient animosity. Fed by religion. A prickly international setting, where it was at risk of becoming “Slavs” need our help (Russia) in place of ME Muslims. Have to get them to be at least silent, and at best agree with the peace keeping mission. Lotta parallels.

The IDF released images of Hamas fuel stockpiles. The concern being if you provide fuel Hamas will just take it.

The IDF also released phone calls where Hamas members mention how one of their headquarters is in the Al Shifa hospital.

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I was born in the US because when my family fled the Tsar and the pogroms, the US provided asylum. I feel that that was a good outcome for my ancestors, for me, and for the US.

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Because if Hamas stole a lot of the supplies that went into Gaza before, they seem likely to do the same now. That makes supplying desperately needed fuel to power desalinaiton plants less than a slam dunk.

Remember, Hamas has a lot of control over distribution in Gaza, and it’s to their BENEFIT if a lot of Palestinians die.

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Pretty much mirrors my thinking on the matter. A piece from Richard Haas.

Gift link via FT.

Israel’s war must distinguish between Hamas and the people of Gaza - https://on.ft.com/40bqhPD via @FT

Yes, Hamas benefits.

Which is precisely why Israel should not walk straight into that particular trap.

I would be very careful before making any conclusions from signals intelligence.

If they cannot confirm it via a secondary source it is speculative.

I don’t understand why people continually under-estimate Hamas. These are not people in caves (Afghanistan), they are much more sophisticated operators with backing (Iran).

As I posted a while ago, that only works if the US forces the issue.

Only the US has the power to force Israel to compromise.

Otherwise, it just isn’t going to happen.

I didn’t make any conclusions. It certainly possible that the IDFs intelligence is wrong.

I posted that more because someone asked if Hamas uses hospitals as shields for headquarters. I responded that the belief is they do. This just further adds to that unsubstantiated belief.