Israel - Hamas War October 2023

This is an excerpt from the FT.

Looks like they entered on foot. This means that somebody was “probably” not manning their post (the holiday probably had something to do with this) and they were not able to respond quickly.

Israel declares ‘complete siege’ on Gaza - Israel declares ‘complete siege’ on Gaza | Financial Times via @FT

How do we know they missed it?

I don’t see how this doesn’t end with Israel just annexing Gaza. Obviously blood on the hands of both sides but at the end of the day the Palestinians negotiated harder than they should have and I think it’s too late now.

The attack is horrendous and will enable hardliners on both sides. It will end worse for Gaza I think.

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Because the entire fence area is layered with sensors.

For ground incursions, and for tunnels (Hamas is known to dig tunnels under the fences).

The reason why they used paragliders is that sensors can confuse them with birds (same speed). But there really is no way you can miss dozens of people moving around on the ground (and going through the fences).

What I’m saying is just because the event happened, doesn’t mean intelligence didn’t know about it. How do we know if they indeed failed to catch it, or knew about it and let it happen?

You think the Israelis knew it was coming and didn’t have a battalion sitting there waiting?

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I understand what you are suggesting, but that would be an extremely dangerous play.

Someone not paying attention during a holiday makes more logical sense.

Keep in mind that this has happened before. They attacked on a religious holiday and took them by surprise (so there is an element of history repeating itself here).

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:face_with_raised_eyebrow: Like the Israeli version of the “inside job” conspiracy theory about 9/11?

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Hmmm yeah that might be a bit extreme. Would be better to avoid WW3 I guess. Maybe they were paying too much attention to the ice cream allowance.

And I doubt it’s a complete coincidence that this happened immediately after the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur war, which this attack is being compared to.


Well, right-wing Israeli media is now calling for Netanyahu to go, because he failed horribly. So if it was an intentional calculation, they calculated wrong.

We won’t know why they failed for quite a while. I expect we will learn the major causes of the failure, because Israel is a very open society, at least within the Jewish population, and that population writes newspaper articles and posts online. I’m sure some details will remain confidential, but the broad strokes of the failure will come out.


This is basically a shitpost. There is not a problem in Israel with lack of land. The problem is that different people want the same land, and want political authority. And I’m pretty sure you know that.


I agree but there are significant differences between this was and the 1973 Yom Kippur War.

50 years ago it was country against country as the armed forces of most of the other nations in the region attacked Israel. This time it is a terrorist group, Hamas, doing the attack so Iran seems to be the only country supporting the attack. Different tactics this time as many hostages have been seized by Hamas to help protect them from retaliatory attacks.

Will be interesting to see if the conflict erupts on fronts other than the Gaza Strip. Hezbollah is undoubtedly watching this closely.

The only thing I can think of is a failure of imagination. I don’t think even Hamas expected to receive as little resistance as they did.

This will likely be Netanyahu’s Golda Meir moment.

He is forming a unity a government, which the entire Jewish population will rally around, He will conduct a brutal campaign to eradicate Hamas, and likely reoccupy gaza.

When it’s done, the investigation into the intelligence failure will ruin him politically forever.

This if going to get extremely bloody. The gaza casualties will be in the thousands, if not 10s of thousands.

Yeah, with the body count so high already, I would assume Israel is preparing to kill several times that many people in a full war. And that most of the world is bracing its stomach to accept that eventuality.

I guess the question is sort of how do they find they find targets to kill? They are bombarding and sieging Gaza now. Which I guess is an instant humanitarian crisis. What next? Tanks and artillery. And what comes after that? How do they conquer Gaza more than they already have, and how do they do that without just killing 100k random civilians.

My sources say that Israeli news is already full of articles about how this is much worse than Golda Meir’s failure, including right-wing journalists who supported him until the attack.

Did Donald Trump’s sharing of classified information help Hamas plan their attack? Inquiring minds want to know.

Trump’s policies on Israel/Palestine over time:

2017 - Jared Kushner is in charge of Middle East peace (as well as the opioid epidemic and several other things). Quote Kushner:

“Quite frankly, also, when we put out our vision for peace you saw the Palestinian leadership reject it before it even came out – before they knew what was in it,” he said. “So people are getting a little tired with the tactics played by the Palestinian leaders. They want to help the Palestinian people, but they’re not going to allow them to hold back the national interest of all these different countries.”

2018, first quote prior to a press conference, second immediately following at the conference. Just a pile of no policy.

I like two-state solution. I like two-state solution. That’s what I think works best. I don’t even have to speak to anybody, that’s my feeling.

If the Israelis and the Palestinians want one state, that’s OK with me. If they want two-state, that’s OK with me. I’m happy if they’re happy […] It is a dream of mine to be able to get that done prior to the end of my first term. I want to have a plan […] that is solid, understood by both sides, really semi-agreed to by both sides before we start a negotiation. I would say over the next two to three to four months that would be the time that I would like to release the plan

In 2020, the Trump administration finally released a plan for Middle East peace that essentially gave Israel everything they wanted and made it nearly impossible for Palestine to become a state, which Palestine immediately rejected.

Then Trump was voted out, the end. Did I miss anything major?

As Iran is one of the main backers of Hamas, US - Iran relations under Trump should probably be included in Trumps Israel / Palestine policies. Between pulling out of the JCPOA and assassinating Soleimani, relations with Iran definitely worsened. Iran resumed their financial support of Hamas in 2017.