- Iran has more friends than you think. And, don’t discount that Russia will provide support as a counter-balance to American interests.
- Israel will find out very quickly who its friends are, and who its transactional acquaintances are. It’s got less of the former and more of the latter after the last ~10 months.
- Europe isn’t going to come rushing to Israel’s defense in a regional conflict, and I suspect the U.S. will provide “military advisor” support and perhaps naval surveillance, and that’s about it. We’re not committing troops for a war someone else started for “national security” that’s gone way beyond that and has decimated and dehumanized a group of people; we’ll do that 100x over for Ukraine as part of preserving democracy in Europe before we wade into Israel’s hot shitty mess.
- I don’t think Iran would have killed anyone in senior Israeli leadership before. I think that door is wide open now.
- If Israel had better security, October 7 wouldn’t have happened … unless, you want to argue that Bibi and/or senior Israeli intelligence knew about what was going to happen and allowed it in order to facilitate marching into Gaza as part of ethnic cleansing going after Hamas - which, if that’s the case, that says so much more than you realize, both looking back and looking forward.
- If people in Iran were going to overthrow the current regime, it would have done so a few times in the past. They haven’t, because the current regime holds that much power and we’re not doing a repeat of 1953. And, as has been noted several times now, once Iran is attacked people will rally around the regime no matter how much they don’t like it, because national pride > national humiliation and it’s going to be vast numbers of times so when Israel is on the other side.
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Canadian dual citizenship has always been popular with the Lebanese so there are an estimated 50K to 75K Canadians living there. Creates huge logistical issues for a small country like Canada to evacuate them so Canadians had also been advised to get out earlier rather than later.
Iran has announced that Hezbollah will purposely be targeting civilians in the upcoming attacks.
Oh, what has Israel done to deserve this??
Europeans have now been advised to leave before today (Sunday) if possible. Monday at the latest.
Looks like the retaliation will likely happen next week and Iran won’t be telling the US & others via back-channels what they intend to do.
So I assume it won’t be like last time where most missiles and drones where intercepted because the US and others had time to pre-position all of their military assets.
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Seems like they have already shared some level of what to expect.
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Obviously you are being sarcastic, but nobody deserves to be targeted by attacks, even if they’re a supporter of raping prisoners of war.
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Israel responded to Iran, saying that if they target any civilians, it will result in the immediate and complete destruction of all Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Lol. Israel doesn’t have that capability anymore.
ETA Iran put most of their stuff inside mountains, it’s just not an option.
Sadly they do have that capability. It involves weapons everyone knows they have but no one had confirmed until Carter opened his mouth a few years ago.
This needs to stop already.
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Awesome, dick-waving our way to a hot war, amazing work.
Could Israel have access to Iran’s nuclear networks such that they could render them inoperable?
The bombs have been planted for months, people are saying…
I wonder if Iran’s weaponry is similar to the Soviet Union before it collapsed - they talk up a big game and put on a show of power, but really the stuff is all broken down and doesn’t work right.
Sounds like Israel best hope that’s the case.
It doesn’t really matter if that is the case because they can send more missiles and drones than the counter-force capabilities (interceptors like Iron Dome) that Israel posseses.
This is also the reason why the US has moved more assets nearby. Israel doesnt have enough launchers and missiles to stop all the missiles and drones that could potentially come their way, so the US and others will be helping there.
Worth stating this again:
This is all Bibi’s and the hard rights (Smotrich and Ben-Gvir) fault for giving the go ahead for a political assasination in Tehran.
The US would have told them “no” (for obvious reasons).
If it had only been the Beirut target, Iran would not have been responding this way. It would have only gone via Hezbollah.
If Iran cuts Hezbollah loose on Israeli civilian centers that is an existential level threat for Israel. That means full open war. No one sane wants that. The Mullah’s need to back off.
Targeting a legit target in Tehran is not new. This is not some red line Israel crossed, its just embarrassing to the regime.
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It doesn’t matter what we think from our chairs in North America about what Iran should consider a red line for Iran.
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