So when you worked as an actuary you were never wrong with your projections?
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With enough actuaries and assuming random forecasts surely thereās at least one of us who remains flawless!
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Theyāre like Genworth on LTC levels of off on their projections.
They were off by half on the most severe level and a quarter on the next most severe.
Tricky to make a good prediction when your prediction affects your assumptions.
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IFYP
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I think maybe you misread? The reports includes both Current and Projected amounts.
I think the numbers you are talking about are the current amount in March, and the current amount in June.
They are estimates, of course, in that itās a war zone. By their best estimates, people are going without food but not many are starving to death.
I mean that their projections were off in large part because food shipments increased in March and April. Which I suspect is because Israel knew they would lose public (and military) support if they let lots of children starve to death. At least that was my prediction.
I do recommend reading the report, if you feel like sitting around a bit. It is interesting from an actuary perspective, if depressing from a humanitarian perspective. I donāt get the sense of a simple political narrative, as they try quite hard here to disprove their previous findings.
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The main issue with the report (other than what you stated) is that they look at reported truck shipments going through the various crossings.
A truck āgoing through a crossingā is not the same things as a āfull truck of food going through a crossing and getting to the people that are starvingā
They had been clearly gumming up the checks so that less food got to the intended recipients. The situation got so bad they decided to increase the number of trucks that were allowed to go through each crossing (and also made very loud media proclamations about doing so), but they still gummed up the checks so that the intended recipients were literally starving to death (my own view of this is that it was by design).
Its interesting how the IPC folks look at the mortality data (we do not see an āofficialā famine because not enough people have died (yet) even though data collection has to be improved in some areas).
Did you find any confidence intervals for their projections? (Because I sure didnt. I skimmed it last night)
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Great that food shipments increased in March and April. That surely instantly reversed the ā¦ [does teh actuarials] 5 months of war that increasingly compressed people into progressively smaller spaces, with progressively fewer resources.
Itās like watching days of heavy rain cause extensive flooding and threaten to wipe out a large dam, then the rain stops and someone proclaims yay, the flood is over, the dam is going to be fine! Thereās a hell of a lot of damage baked into the situation thatās still going to be realized.
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So does that apply to the several thousand pallets of aid sitting waiting at the end of the US built and controlled dock too?
Or maybe, possibly, the Israeliās have a point that the real bottleneck is distribution? There certainly was a bottleneck in supply. That seems to have been significantly solved, which revealed a problem in distribution that has not been solved. That oneās on the UN.
And lets not bother with ātoo many strikes near aid facilitiesā. If Hamas didnāt use areas adjacent to aid facilities for strikes the Israeliās wouldnāt have to conduct operations near them.
On another note Poly. This report blows a BIG whole in ICC charges against Israel and its leaders.
A report from the Director of National Intelligence says that anti-Israel protestors on college campuses and other places were paid by the Iranian government.
Avril Haines, DNI who is herself Jewish also said that most protesters are unaware of their interactions with these infiltrators and that Iranās activities shouldnāt be used to taint legitimate protesters or stifle speech. Iām unsurprised that bad actors infiltrated the protests, though my guess would have been Israel funding them.
I was quite discouraged by the protesters who did things like block Pride parades, but now I wonder how much of that was foreign influence.
So, how do i go about getting some of that sweet Iranian cash?
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Will protest for food
Heck, I say stupid stuff for free, why not get paid?
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Why would Israel fund anti-Israel protests that push Biden to act against their interests? You have got to check your biases with logic.
That is not a rule on this forum.
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which interrupt Pride parades, harass innocent people, tear down American flags, spray-paint graffiti, etc.
The thought isnāt āIsrael would fund anti-Israel protests.ā Itās āIsrael would fund infiltrators to go into anti-Israel protests and make them disruptive and counterproductive.ā
Israel would clearly have a motive to make anti-Israel protesters looks like immature assholes. Iām not claiming anything here, that would have just been my assumption if I had to guess.
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Because they might view the situation as Biden isnāt acting in their interest in the first place, so theyāre going to work to place him in the worse possible light that they can.
I donāt think ālogicā is a consideration when politics are concerned. At least, the rules of logic in a political setting donāt jive with similar rules in all other contexts.
Iām thinking it would be similar in logic to conservativesā claims that Antifa infiltrated the Jan. 6th protests. They were āthereā to make conservatives look bad. In these cases, perhaps Israel is hiring people to make the anti-israel protestors look bad and turn off potential supporters.
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