Innumeracy

This kind of reminds me of the Five Guys “free burger” life hack.

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I know a guy who goes to Chipotle and asks for extra rice, extra beans, pretty much extra everything but extra meat, in a burrito. Plus an extra tortilla, he says they don’t charge him. Then he breaks it down and makes two burritos.

And no, he’s not an actuary.

Not sure I believe the meat. Don’t they offer that as an option you can pay for? Not really seeing the extra tortilla happening either.

And those things would be kind of a mess to take apart and put back together.

He doesn’t get extra meat. And I’m sure it’s messy, but he doesn’t make much money so I can see him dealing with some mess to stretch meals.

Ah - didn’t see the “but”

:slight_smile:

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There’s also the theory that the young person spooning in the meat reacts to the proportions and forgets that the single spoon holds exactly the right amount (per management), and so heaps more meat on top to blend in with the larger amounts of the base.

i used to eat a whole burrito for a single meal. Now a bowl is 2 meals (w no extra stuff).

I don’t go to those extremes, but I will frequently get a bowl with extra rice, and beans on the side, and I share it with my wife. She is thin and doesn’t eat a lot, and she gets the beans plus about 40% of the bowl, and I eat the other 60%.

That may sound cheap, but I’m not thin and if I have an opportunity to eat only 60% of what a restaurant gives me, it’s probably a good thing. Lunch for two for $8.

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I’m getting better!

You’re not fooling anyone

Help me out…something to do with the numbers are different…got smaller/bigger/something…when it’s obvious that since more time has passed they couldn’t possibly have done what they did?

2 things:

  1. Both the total infections and total symptomatic illness estimates for age 0-17 decreased (the former dramatically) between May and September. These are the estimated burden from Feb 2020, so that shouldn’t be possible, especially in light of the Delta wave & all the hoopla about kids being infected more over the summer.
    Also, all other age groups increased by 10-12 pp in the same period (e.g. 18-49yo increased from ~44% to ~55%)

  2. The September symptomatic illness estimate (both the point estimate & uncertainty interval, although there’s overlap in the ranges) is higher than the total infection estimate.

Rochelle Walensky really shooting for that Pfizer sales trophy.

The true infections should be greater over a longer period (I don’t even think that “or equal to” is reasonable when tacking on an extra 4 months.)

But couldn’t estimates go down?

Aren’t they basically saying “oops, we think our estimate was too high before” ??

That doesn’t seem like anything nefarious… quite the opposite.

Or did these two estimates come out at the same time?

Yes, that’s possible, but seems a bit unlikely, especially when every other age group increases by 10-12 pp in 4 months, except the one group they’ve been harping on all summer, which goes down by 7pp. It would mean that their previous estimates were off by about a factor of 2.

Also, you didn’t address the 2nd thing (symptomatic greater than total infection estimates in the Sept report for 0-17), which is clear self-contained innumeracy.

These are your public health “experts.”

Oh, yeah that’s bonkers.

Probably an Excel error. Maybe should cross-post in that thread.

I don’t know what kinda training they give to Chiptole employees. But they must spend a month training how to fit an elephant into that tortilla

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Yahoo News - " * Vermont, for example — the most vaccinated state in the U.S. — has seen a significant spike in cases. It’s now averaging just over 50 cases per capita per day."

That’s a lot of cases per person.

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:llol:

natural immunity aint what it used to be

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I got solar panels installed this summer. That may/may not be part of the problem.

Comparing last year’s usage to this year’s, my electric company’s app tells me that “Your usage is 116.42% lower than last year.”

They must be giving me the “net-usage”…i.e., not only having I produced all of the electricity that I need right now. I’ve produced 16.42% more than what I used last year.

Thanks for letting me talk it out. It’s not innumeracy. In the end, it’s just poorly “explained” by the app.

Do you live somewhere where your panels contribute to the power grid and you get money for generating it?