Israeli data shows that the child infection rates falls off a cliff when the adult vaccination rate gets high enough, so I think that’s fine. Maybe total population is more clear, but the target would be lower for when it becomes ‘safe’.
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As a total number, MA will be 60% all population of 2-doses received.
Both denominators make sense:
- including kids in denominator gives a better sense of herd immunity in total population
- excluding kids makes sense when evaluating progress among “those eligible for vaccines”
Agree that numerator should include both infection- and vaccine-induced immunity (without double counting)
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I think they are trying to put “out of those who can currently be vaccinated” as the denominator. Yeah it makes things look better if they did it out of the total population (and there are some that do), states with higher percentages of kids who can’t be vaccinated look even worse.
Also, while those who have been infected have some immunity as well, currently the government and most “medical experts” are discounting naturally acquired immunity and are recommending even those who have immunity from having had the virus still get immunized because they currently believe the vaccine has proven to be a better protector.
I believe that when the data is all in, they will advise those who recover from covid to get a booster shot, but not two doses of vaccine. People who have recovered from covid seem to have a very wide range of natural immunity, with some showing more markers of immunity than those vaccinated, and others showing essentially no markers of immunity.
But for herd immunity, all that really matters is averages. Even though you, recovered person, will have a more reliable immune status if you get vaccinated, on a population basis, recovery and a single shot of vaccine are both pretty decent.
Utah’s dashboard, currently indicated 34.8% of all Utahns are fully vaccinated while 43% of age 12+ population are currently vaccinated. Though Johns Hopkins currently has it as 26.9% of full population fully vaccinated. That seems like a huge discrepancy. And for other states I have been looking at the Johns Hopkins page here Understanding Vaccination Progress - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center which caused me to be a little confused how people were saying MA was getting close to 60% or would be at 70% by the end of the month.
MA has 4.1M of people who had a 1st shot, so in 3 weeks, they would all have their second shot. The total population of MA is 6.8M, so that’s around 60%.
Also, within a week or two of the first shot, you are MUCH less likely to spread COVID or get criticially ill. Not “fully protected”, but it still counts towards lowering R under 1, at which case there is no reason for any restrictions.
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The MA state data doesn’t show “adults” (it shows over 20+ and 16+ if you add the pieces) but page ten of this report:
MA weekly covid vaccine report
shows that 4.085M of 6.964M MA residents have at least one dose of vaccine. That’s more than 58% of the total population. Most of those people will finish their vaccination series. It seems to be updated weekly, so it’s slightly out-of-date.
Or this is more user-friendly:
COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker: How Many People Have Been Vaccinated In The U.S.? : Shots - Health News : NPR
it shows MA at 47% fully vaccinated, and 62% with one dose. It also shows Utah with 29% fully vaccinated and 42% with at least one dose.
I’ve been estimating 3.5 weeks. Guessing 50/50 between Moderna and Pfizer.
No significant immunity kicks in until about 12 days after the first dose. But that’s a quibble. I agree that anyone with at least one dose is is lowering the R, or will be soon.
That is a large discrepancy. I’ve been following a handful of NE states, and all the numbers I’ve seen (state dashboards, Johns Hopkins, NPR, etc.) have stayed pretty close.
The weirdest state I’ve been following is NH. They are near the front of the pack, as states go, in first doses. But they are low-mid in fully vaccinated. They almost seem to have followed the UK/Canadian strategy. I have no idea how they did that. But even though they don’t have a lot of fully vaccinated people, yet, I figure their near-future prospects are pretty good. All those partially vaccinated people pulling down the R, and most of them will likely be fully vaccinated in another week or two.
They have a nice clean dashboard, though. 
Vaccination | NH COVID-19 Response
Yup, I always just assumed it was to only report percentage of eligible population. Although my county’s vaccine tracker still reports % of 16+, even with expanded eligibility. I wonder if that’ll change with this afternoon’s update.
The benchmark for removing all restrictions in my state is still 70% of 16+ adults (or June 30). I suspect in that case, it is just padding the number. The governor, I’m sure, wants to make lifting restrictions as easy as possible.
I think going by percentage of folks eligible to be vaccinated, or by age tranche, is probably a more effective mechanic for the peer-pressure aspect of the campaign to get more people willing to be vaccinated, as well as tracking progress given that doses were originally allocated to the states based on the size of subsets of the population, rather than population in total.
But if the concern is messaging as regards to when the pandemic will be “over”, when it will be safe to unmask, etc… I don’t entirely disagree. My inner libertarian could comment on the extent to which public health orders should go as compared to questions about risk to the public health system (e.g. vaccination rates are highest among those most susceptible; thus at some point the risk of the public health system being pushed beyond the brink should be diminished), but…
I was WFH for years before the pandemic, so I’m a little out of the loop.
My company has promised that employees generally won’t be required to be in-office before the start of next school year, but offices were expected to start re-opening in coming weeks/months for employees who wanted to voluntarily go back to the office.
No word yet on how close to pre-pandemic norms we will return. I suspect that “new normal” will be closer to “old normal” than I might have expected 10-12 months ago, but pre-pandemic there had been talk of expanding what we now think of as “hybrid” work due to employee interest and real estate costs…so it’ll be interesting to see.
I’m also interested to see what the new norms regarding business travel are, and the extent to which some conferences remain online / become “hybrid” events. I was on the road for work and family reasons about 50% of my time pre-pandemic. I have 3 non-work trips booked, starting soon, and I’m looking forward to the change in scenery…but I wouldn’t hate not going all the way back to the ways of the “before times”.
Add Target, CVS, and Starbucks to the no mask required list (unless mandated by govt)
Target, CVS and Starbucks update mask policy for vaccinated customers (cnbc.com)
Yeah, We had a tentative date of 7/1, but they’ve recently rescinded that. The only guidance is “Some time in the fall with at least 3 weeks notice.” However, many people will likely choose to remain remote full time or opt for a hybrid schedule. We’ve already hired 2 fully remote employees and another team member has already converted to full time remote. I’d like a hybrid office/wfh schedule but I will likely request to be full time remote for child care reasons. At least through the coming school year.
So, I went to a couple of stores this weekend. I wore my mask. I walked around the city yesterday because it was such a beautiful day. There were a lot of people out and about, so I started out with my mask, but eventually took it off. I also went to a soccer game and rode the light rail, in each case, the mask was required.
So, I think I’m done wearing a mask outside unless required or I’m asked. I don’t think it’s necessary anymore. I’m going to follow CDC guidance to the T and continue wearing my mask inside public places until I hit my 2 weeks, then, if I can, I will.
So, next Tuesday, I plan on being more or less done with masks in situations not required. I’ll keep one with me when I’m out and about for the foreseeable future.
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Target has also released their [“vaccinated”] employees from mask requirements [unless required by law].
Makes sense, yeah I’m hoping for a hybrid structure. Got a little worried at my friend’s EY full time back, although I wonder if that’ll also apply to the actuaries. Still pretty radio silence from my firm, I heard another go back to 3/wk.
Yeah, hybrid is what I want, after my childcare issues get resolved. Funny story. I was told I could choose 2 WFH days a week if I wanted at my interview. Then, before my start date, a veep was hired and she ended that policy. So, thanks COVID, for giving me the benefit that I thought I was going to get all along.
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