I remember going on a date with a woman a while back and she was a phd student in epidemiology and I asked her “what’s epidemiology?” Now everybody knows.
Did she return the favor by asking you what an actuary is?
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Doesn’t matter because mask wearing will still be compulsory indoors until you sit down and eat.
Don’t see that going away for a long while.
MA implied the indoor mask mandate may go away as early as 8/1 (which is the date all other restrictions end), but that the indorr mask mandate isn’t certain to go away.
At nine days, not all that safe. But by 2 weeks or so after your first dose, you begin to have significant immunity. The response to the second dose is faster, and you get most of what you will get from it in a week.
This article reports on the results of a few different studies, including Pfizer’s preliminary data and real world data from Israeli HMOs.
an HMO found no decrease in the odds of developing covid from 5-12 days after the first shot, but found a 33% decrease 14 days after the first shot.
Another study found a 60% decrease in risk after 14 days.
A small study where they actually drew blood and looked at antibody levels found that after a week, only 1% of people had enough antibodies to matter, but after 14 days, 50% did. (Which sort of demonstrates that it may not be that YOU are x% less likely to be infected, but that the odds are y% that you will be z% less at risk…)
The NEJM published a very nice study based on Israeli experience, with a lot of people and carefully matched controls. It didn’t analyze the data prior to 14 days, because they didn’t expect meaningful results. But they did publish some nice graphs.
Here’s the link to the article. Look in the results, figure 2.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2101765
They studied the Pfizer vaccine, and the predominant variant of virus during their study was B.1.1.7 (the “UK” variant.) There was also some “original strain” running around, but not much B.1.351 (“south african”) variant.
Other data suggests the Pfizer vaccine is less effective against the B.1.351 variant.
How are their insurance carriers going to allow them to do this?
They tried this sort of thing with soccer here (many clubs are hurting for money), but the response was a resounding no. Only limited capacity until all fully vaccinated. They are also still arguing about how you actually prove this at the door.
By and large, liability insurance doesn’t cover “caught an infectious disease” in the US. So their insurer may not care.
Soccer? Hm, strike two for me.
Sounder are offering vaccinations at “all eligible home games” starting this Sunday. Also the story says “all players and staff are considered fully vaccinated”.
Yup, I saw that news. Hopefully most people attending will already have at least one shot. But if they’re able to reach people who haven’t had a shot yet and are willing to attend a sporting event, that’s great. Especially if they give them the single dose J&J, which will be available.
Wow I feel much more informed about the after 1st before 2nd limbo period I’m in. Thanks for the info. I’ll wait until 14 days this Tuesday before I say and act as if I have partial protection.
Now that it’s been two weeks since my second shot, I feel safe doing any of these activities without wearing a mask-
- Gathering with friends and family
- Going to the gym and working out
- Going to the movie theater
- Eating indoors at restaurants
- Going to church
- Going to a giant outdoor event
- Going to a giant indoor event
- Basically, anything I would have done before the pandemic
Now to be 100% transparent-
I have been doing #s 1-4 since May 2020 and without wearing a mask during those activities. But now I won’t worry about getting COVID while doing those activities.
Almost every day at lunch, I go for a walk. If somebody else walks my way, I completely cross the street and walk on the other side. There have been times when it’s crowded and there’s a lot of car traffic, where this became an awkward game of Frogger. But, now that I’m partially vaxxed and 75% of adults in my zip code have at least one shot (my county publishes great data), I don’t think I need to do that anymore. I’m not sure I ever did.
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Playing human Frogger was certainly more risky than crossing paths with another walker.
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What can I say? Human beings, even actuaries, are very bad at evaluating risk.
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Why would you do 1-4 since May 2020?
Seems pretty crazy.
Just asking to get infected.
I thought I would probably get it, but was okay if I got it. But I didn’t thankfully.
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I like that it has become socially acceptable to avoid getting within arms reach of people when passing them. Never mind Covid, if you’re walking a dog, I’m crossing to the other side.
Oh yes. I just love all the antisocial behavior being learned during this pandemic, which some people may not unlearn.
So, today I took my first steps back into normalcy. My husband booked me a hotel downtown, so I invited a friend to meet me at the hotel bar for dinner and drinks. It felt really weird at first to be indoors, dining without a mask, but by the end of it, it just felt nice to be doing something normal again without feeling anxious the whole time.
I’m getting my nails done tomorrow and walking to get some coffee. I would go out to dinner tomorrow night (husband is coming to meet me), but all the restaurants were booked for reservations so I’m just going to do carry out. Steak, I think. It’s been a while since I had a great steak.
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