If you zoom in (I have my browser set at 200%), you will see in the various legends that there are child groups: 0-4 [a brownish yellow], 5-17 [grey].
They’re at the tippy top of the stacked column graphs and you can see them in the June 2021 column… because really, their rate hasn’t changed much, but the rate of the old folks has plummeted.
Yes, it would be nice to know the base rates of comorbidities in the general public to compare against, but I think there’s some clear patterns. That a high percentage of younger adults in the hospital with COVID are obese… that’s interesting. Perhaps these obesity comorbidity results are coming from the under-age-65 crowd, and not so much from the old folks.
Re: diabetes, I know that diabetes incidence generally increases with increasing age (so does obesity, btw), in the general public. That hypertension rate for the old folks … that seems extremely high to me. Not sure what’s going on with that.
Y’all should go over to that dashboard and play around - I didn’t share the other conditions that you can slice by, mainly bc I picked the ones that looked the most interesting.
A while ago, someone, maybe the nyt, published a covid risk calculator, where you could enter your age, sex, BMI, whether you had diabetes, and a few other major comorbidities, and it would spit out a risk of death or hospitalization for you, and show it on a graph showing average risk by age and sex.
What jumped out to me is that obesity was an enormous risk factor for the young, but made almost no difference as you got older. It mostly went away around 60, iirc, although maybe the age was slightly different by sex.
They didn’t publish the methodology, at least, not in any easy-to-read way. But the numbers looked plausible, and i spent a fair amount of time playing with it. I wish i could find it again. I’m sure it’s out-of-date, though.
NYT had a few visualizations/tools they kept updating with data, but some they abandoned.
Interesting how that dark blue part (50-64yo) has stayed fairly consistent while the red and light blue have made such wild swings.
A few notes:
@meep also posted the rates by age here:
Yeah, which is what I found interesting. That while the total number has changed significantly over time and the Old and Young have changed fairly significantly as a percentage of the whole during those times, that the middle group has stayed a fairly consistent % of the whole over the entire time.
Eh, old people get vaccinated and stop having so many cases. Young people keep doing their thing, middle is somewhere in the middle so doesn’t change very much.
I was at the doctor today (just allergies) and she said she is seeing a lot of people with their 2nd Covid infection. Ugh.
My state is at the late January level of Covid hospitalizations. 50 kids hospitalized with or due to Covid (they don’t specify).
Were the 2nd round of COVID people vaccinated or not? Did she think the natural infection breakthrough rate was higher than the vaccinated breakthrough rate?
You can get one doctor’s opinion.
Or:
Didn’t we discuss this else where? Someone suggested this tended to indicate that the vaccine gave previously infected people a little more than a 50% boost in immunity while it seems to give never infected people greater than 90% boost in immunity.
And does that tell me that having recovered I am more or less protected than someone who only has the vaccine?
Well, we could believe that people who have gotten the virus are different from people who have not gotten the virus.
How different? Lifestyle, job, health status, attention paid to avoiding the virus, naturally more conducive to getting this and/or other viruses, etc.
These factors might increase the P(getting COVID | having had COVID AND full dose of vaccine) over P(getting COVID | having had full dose of vaccine) for the overall population.
Similar to how car insurers view people who’ve been in an accident: they tend to get in more accidents.
Is this true for COVID? Who knows?
Does any of this apply directly to you? I do not know.
Your focus seems to have been:
What is the difference between:
P(getting COVID | having had COVID AND full dose of vaccine)
vs
P(getting COVID | having had COVID AND no vaccine) ?
'cause I remember you being quite against getting the vaccine 'cause you thought you were immune. And, maybe you ARE immune – to the one strain of COVID you got. Listen up, buddy-boy: there are other strains.
And maybe the REAL focus should be severity of that second COVID with vaccine vs w/o vaccine. If you’re Lamar Jackson, a famous athletic person who got COVID twice, maybe you’ll be OK.
I get what you are saying and as you should know, I will be fully vaccinated in about 3 weeks.
I wouldn’t have characterized myself as “being quite against getting the vaccine 'cause you thought you were immune.” I was trying to get someone to convince me that getting the vaccine was going to give me a huge increase in protection over my then state. I’m not sure I ever suggested that getting the vaccine after recovering from COVID would be of no use.
They were throwing out numbers for the vaccines of 90-95% protection. But some studies had suggested those numbers for natural immunity. And, of course, initially there was serious reservations whether the current vaccines would have much protection against the new variants, just like there was serious reservations whether natural immunity would have much protection against the new variants.
Sure, I’m still wondering what the difference is between:
P(getting COVID | having had COVID AND full dose of vaccine)
vs
P(getting COVID | having had COVID AND no vaccine) ?
But being in the former, it is less of a serious concern to me as it might have been before, now more of a curiosity.
And I am taking more precautions with the increased rates of COVID around. Even if I believe almost as protected as I might ever be.
And yes, I wish the other half of the US population than can currently be vaccinated would do it so that we can knock down the virus to just the few breakthrough case that we will probably see for a very long time. I hope that we don’t see this become something that we have to get revaccinated against every 6 months, 12 would be bad enough.
I suspect that recovered + first dose vaccine is similar to two doses of vaccine.
ISTR that Brazil had an ugly wave because folks recovered from the first strain were reinvented by what was originally called the Brazilian strain (not sure which Greek letter it was mapped to).
Anecdote in lieu of evidence: My recent minimal breakthrough bout of COVID was probaby my second time. At least I had something with COVID like symptoms last fall, but a comedy of lab errors caused me to not get a conclusive verdict.
Article about an Israeli Study of natural immunity vs vaccinated immunity.
Coronavirus patients who recovered from the virus were far less likely to become infected during the latest wave of the pandemic than people who were vaccinated against COVID, according to numbers presented to the Israeli Health Ministry.
Health Ministry data on the wave of COVID outbreaks which began this May show that Israelis with immunity from natural infection were far less likely to become infected again in comparison to Israelis who only had immunity via vaccination.
More than 7,700 new cases of the virus have been detected during the most recent wave starting in May, but just 72 of the confirmed cases were reported in people who were known to have been infected previously – that is, less than 1% of the new cases.
Roughly 40% of new cases – or more than 3,000 patients – involved people who had been infected despite being vaccinated.
With a total of 835,792 Israelis known to have recovered from the virus, the 72 instances of reinfection amount to 0.0086% of people who were already infected with COVID.
By contrast, Israelis who were vaccinated were 6.72 times more likely to get infected after the shot than after natural infection, with over 3,000 of the 5,193,499, or 0.0578%, of Israelis who were vaccinated getting infected in the latest wave.
According to a report by Channel 13 , the disparity has confounded – and divided – Health Ministry experts, with some saying the data proves the higher level of immunity provided by natural infection versus vaccination, while others remained unconvinced.
Infections will happen across all groups. When does it stop causing severe disease at high rates and when can the world go back to normal?
When you have a little bit of time read the following 4 articles. They come from what can reasonably be called MSM. You might not consider them all MSM but there are plenty of folks who are getting their news from these sources. I got these from a site called AllSides which attempts to rate sources as Right, Leans Right, Center, Leans Left and Left. I think it is fairly obvious how people only getting their news from one or 2 sources that when they read don’t make them feel they are getting stupider, can be coming to such different ideas.
Here is their current chart of news sources.
If that was responding to me…I get it, I’m not all that worked up if someone had covid and skipped the vaccine, and I think most vaccine rules should take that into account. At some point some critical threshold of both has been met and this is just an endemic cold virus. How far off is that? How do we measure that? Infections is not the right measure.
