Fall 2023 Exam 8 Thread

I wish I don’t need to be here, but creating the thread just in case.

Who’s in?

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I’m in

@Mods, if it turns out kadsura passed 8 this sitting, please burn this thread down so he doesn’t jinx everyone who posts in it for next year. :slight_smile:

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It’s gonna be a tall order to jinx everyone here, but ok I’ll see what I can do.

Btw it’s a he

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Do you guys have a guess for what your score will be? It could be a range with a simplified probability distribution.

Last year, my guess was more like 4 (80%) 5 (18%) 6(2%). Ended up with a 4 :frowning:

This year, I think it’s more 4 (20%) 5 (45%) 6 (35%).

What, we are not gonna estimate it with Panjer’s recursive formula?

1 (1%) 2(1%) 3(3%) 4(20%) 5(25%) 6(42%) 7 (7%) 8 (0.99%) 9 (0.01%)

You forgot the possibility that your grade slip will show blank, which it has happened to candidates in the past.

I make the same assumption as Panjers, where there is no loss-free severities

I thought that was single distribution model disadvantage.
Panjers handles low frequency scenarios well so if anything, that’s an advantage.

Yeah I meant Fx(0) = 0. In other words Fs(0) = Fn(0)

Is the underlying Poisson or Negative Binomial?

I’m not sure if I want to forget all this or retain it in case I need to retake it…

NB maybe?

Let number of failures before my eventual success = 3 :grin:

Now I think about it, I feel like the exam did not test much on the “obscure” topics.
Instead, it was on topics that have been tested often but some of the questions were so weird.

I’d be happier if they kept all exams like this sitting of 8. Every exam I’ve sat for in the last ~4 years has had some obscure topics that just demoralizes me. Worst was the Mango - Allen ULAE question on 5. No example in the source at all, just a paragraph describing how to do it.