I wish I don’t need to be here, but creating the thread just in case.
Who’s in?
1 Like
I’m in
@Mods, if it turns out kadsura passed 8 this sitting, please burn this thread down so he doesn’t jinx everyone who posts in it for next year. 
2 Likes
It’s gonna be a tall order to jinx everyone here, but ok I’ll see what I can do.
Btw it’s a he
1 Like
Do you guys have a guess for what your score will be? It could be a range with a simplified probability distribution.
Last year, my guess was more like 4 (80%) 5 (18%) 6(2%). Ended up with a 4 
This year, I think it’s more 4 (20%) 5 (45%) 6 (35%).
What, we are not gonna estimate it with Panjer’s recursive formula?
1 (1%) 2(1%) 3(3%) 4(20%) 5(25%) 6(42%) 7 (7%) 8 (0.99%) 9 (0.01%)
You forgot the possibility that your grade slip will show blank, which it has happened to candidates in the past.
I make the same assumption as Panjers, where there is no loss-free severities
I thought that was single distribution model disadvantage.
Panjers handles low frequency scenarios well so if anything, that’s an advantage.
Yeah I meant Fx(0) = 0. In other words Fs(0) = Fn(0)
Is the underlying Poisson or Negative Binomial?
I’m not sure if I want to forget all this or retain it in case I need to retake it…
NB maybe?
Let number of failures before my eventual success = 3 
Now I think about it, I feel like the exam did not test much on the “obscure” topics.
Instead, it was on topics that have been tested often but some of the questions were so weird.
I’d be happier if they kept all exams like this sitting of 8. Every exam I’ve sat for in the last ~4 years has had some obscure topics that just demoralizes me. Worst was the Mango - Allen ULAE question on 5. No example in the source at all, just a paragraph describing how to do it.
How does everyone feel about the exam 8 material change? It makes me want to skip this fall and take it next year as reinsurance won’t be tested.
The thought has crossed my mind. Would rather try and get the credit out of the way as soon as possible I think. I’m getting too old for this.
1 Like
idk how old you are but I’m def growing tired of studying.
Mid-30s, 2 young kids. Priorities are shifting rapidly. My problem is a motivational one. When I study, I’m alright. Beyond the promise of a bigger paycheck though, I get no utility from passing, and I’m already pretty happy from an income perspective. It’s a tough spot personally after a late start on exams.
Same Same Same
In the exact same spot as you, started late, had kids, progressed in my career where the return from getting my fellowship would only be helpful if I leave my company for a new job.
Motivation is at an all time low and these transitions make it feel like Lucy with the football.
If I interpret the transition message correct:
Similarly, the CAS will evaluate whether these topics can be offered in another format outside of the examinations to the subset of candidates who are along the FCAS journey and may not be assessed on this material due to this transition.
I’m in the subset where if I pass 9 this spring, fail 8 again, I may not get my FCAS in 2024 because I wasn’t “assessed” on the Reinsurance/Cat pricing. The next line says no additional requirements are being added but it seems vague as to if it applies in general or just to those people described above.
1 Like
I actually missed that blurb about the topic assessments. That also sucks.
1 Like