Data, graphs, etc

I’ll try to scrape some stuff to put here.


Financial Times has great stuff:

So does The Economist

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RT-live has interesting stuff

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I like 91-divoc for visualiztions:

provinces vs states graph over time:

Pretty cool visual representation.

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Trying something out:


Data issues

Interesting method to estimate COVID deaths in Khartoum, Sudan when there is poor official data collection:


  • A mitigated COVID-19 epidemic (slowing but not stopping epidemic spread) occurred in Khartoum between April and September 2020.
  • In order to predict the trajectory of the emerging second wave, we estimate the level of mortality detected during the first wave and subsequently infer levels of immunity.
  • Between April and September 2020, we estimate that 2% (sensitivity range 2% - 5%) of deaths due to COVID-19 were reported in official reported mortality numbers.
  • We estimate there were 16,090 (95% CI: 14,300 - 17,990) undetected COVID-19 deaths up to 20 November.
  • We estimate high levels of immunity after the end of the first wave of COVID-19 in Khartoum with 38.0% (95% CI: 35.0% - 41.1%) infected by 20 November 2020.
  • Reductions in COVID-19 incidence during the first wave were due to both the implemented interventions and increasing immunity in the population.
  • Interventions lead to a reduction in R from 3.5 to 1 by 20 April.
  • The effective reproduction number continued to fall after 20 April, falling to 0.8 at the beginning of July due to increasing immunity.
  • The ending of stringent suppression measures in July resulted in transmission increasing, with continued increases in mobility resulting in R rising above 1 during September.
  • In the absence of further increases in transmission, we predict that the second wave will peak before the beginning of 2021.
  • We project the second wave to be similar in size to the first wave sustained in the summer if transmission is maintained at current levels.
  • If instead mortality under-ascertainment is at the upper end of our range (5%), then we estimate a smaller first wave. This means that fewer people will be immune and hence we would project a larger second wave.
  • In the absence of implementing new suppressive measures, continued shielding of high-risk individuals is important to help reduce mortality during the second wave.
  • Historic mortality investigations are needed to help confirm the level of mortality missed and to inform the trajectory of the second wave and how long shielding should be maintained.

Key Points

Question What proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread is associated with transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) from persons with no symptoms?

Findings In this decision analytical model assessing multiple scenarios for the infectious period and the proportion of transmission from individuals who never have COVID-19 symptoms, transmission from asymptomatic individuals was estimated to account for more than half of all transmission.

Meaning The findings of this study suggest that the identification and isolation of persons with symptomatic COVID-19 alone will not control the ongoing spread of SARS-CoV-2.

Wholly Shit!

I think we might need a few more months on those graphs.
Any other pro-active edicts (enforcing “must wear mask” “lockdowns,” etc.) going on in Israel to make the drop after the peak?

More on Israel:


Hmmm, trying:

I see that the Covid Tracking Project is shutting down 3/7

The COVID Tracking Project | The COVID Tracking Project

I have been using that site for work as well as my own personal “enjoyment” tracking Covid and creating graphs for my state and others that interest me.

Does anyone have a good replacement site that lists test, cases, hospitalizations by day by state?

WTH Iowa? 27K cases on Friday vs daily numbers running less than 1K for a while? I can’t find any explanation for this data bomb. Anyone closer got any insight? The daily totals on the IA DPH don’t add to the total cases reported.

On thing to keep in mind, daily cases are generally on a “paid” basis, not an “incurred” basis. So there just could have been a reporting backlog. Was Iowa affected by the winter weather? Or it could just be garden variety government incompetency.

What I am saying is the sum of the daily claims “paid” doesn’t equal the total claims “paid”. Someone is pocketing the $ :wink: (except in this case the sum daily is much higher than total).

Reporting lags happen, but when they have been substantial in my state the DPH has noted receiving a backlog.

I think they made changes to their website (they noted adjusting positivity rate comps to match CDC this past week), but broke something. I didn’t visit IA’s site before, so I am not sure.