The paper found that:
- 10-year mortality rates, absent direct COVID deaths and long COVID, will likely be lower in 2021 than anticipated in 2019.
- However, these differences are small, ranging from a decline of 0.4 percentage points for people in their 60s to 1 percentage point for those in their 90s.
- The small difference is in spite of the fact that COVID mortality was, indeed, very selective, with mortality declines exceeding half the maximum possible declines, holding total COVID deaths constant, for every age group.
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The policy implications of the findings are:
- That declines in mortality due to COVID selection likely will not impact overall population mortality substantially enough to affect Social Security cost projections.
- Any impact of selection effects on Social Security costs will likely be swamped by ongoing mortality increases directly attributable to acute and long COVID.
Just a case of âThat which does not kill meâŚâ?
Or, basically that COVID simply killed people in 2020 instead of natural causes that would have killed them in 2021?
There seems to be some evidence, in that >100% of the increase in 2021 mortality compared to 2019 for those over age 85 is attributable to COVIDâŚ
âŚwhich I would interpret as⌠they wouldâve died of something else, most likely.
It looks like heart disease, chronic lower respiratory disease, and Alzheimers are the âwinnersâ
To be sure, thatâs only a 35% overlap. Itâs not like all the COVID deaths were âthey would have died of something else in 2021 anywayâ
Oh no, not everyone. Just a large enough group of people who died a year early to affect Mortality Rates as a whole. Maybe COVID, maybe COVID-adjacent (couldnât get critical care because hospital was filled with COVID patients, etc.)
Just simple math. Numerators and Denominators changed, and not in the same ratio.
Yay, they fixed the bogus death spike problem
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NY Times has piece today about how Covid mortality had a greater than average mortality impact on native Amercans, who began with worse than average life expectancy compared to blacks, whites, hispanics, and asians.
Yes, that was in the CDC life expectancy report⌠but it wasnât just COVID.
Hmmm, maybe I should do a split out by race/ethnicity, and Iâll use age-adjusted death rates by COD.
The queen may have died of long covid
âBased on what we know about COVIDâs activity with regard to the heart and the vasculature, that means clotting, and I donât know what variant of COVID she might have had, whether it was the Omicron or the Delta â and the Delta is still going around. That could have been the source of her demise,â said Lahita.
The bottom line
âŚ
While a cause of death has not yet been released, experts say her previous infection with the coronavirus may have contributed to her death.
Or maybe she had a stroke or something else. Who knows.
She was 96. Lots of things can kill a 96-yr-old.
To extract from my blog post:
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MEEP,
What is the life expectancy of a 73 year old, twice married monarch?
are you expecting his 2nd wife to murder him?
No, just wondering when his son can expect to succeed him.
But it was a serious question. I thinking like 12 - 14 year, right?
Well, I mean, being 96 is almost certainly the primary cause of death, whatever the proximate cause was. But itâs pretty common for people whoâve recovered from acute covid to have new heart/vascular problems, and a 96 year old doesnât have a lot of resiliency if the heart or blood vessels are damaged.
well, that makes my dad an âage 96â survivor
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I mean, U.S. mortality isnât UK mortality, but the Actuaries Longevity Illustrator isnât a bad tool to get the range of possibilities:
https://www.longevityillustrator.org/
Using his bday and I assume âretirementâ on his next bday in November:
median of 14 years more years, and we can also check out the percentilesâŚ
Again, this is using U.S. mortality tables, projections, yadda yadda, but it gives you some reasonability ranges.
But keep in mind how long his parents lived. Itâs not just that his mom lived to be 96, but his dad lived to be 99. So, he stands a good chance to make it to 100, I think.
also lives a pampered, yet active lifestyle. actually rather ideal
Heâs also had Covid though, so that might result in a shorter life, right?
None of us have a clue.
I mean, if it actually caused him damage â heart damage, lung damage â maybe.
Sure, but Iâm thinking that people with known Covid infections (unfortunately including me) would probably on average have worse mortality than people who donât, all else equal.
Also itâs supposedly very stressful to be monarch*, so that combination of high stress job plus recovered from Covid might have an adverse impact on his mortality. Iâd probably knock his health down from âexcellentâ to whatever is second-best. JMO, of course.
*The demands on your time are exorbitant, I believe. They say the stress of being king contributed to the early demise of Charlesâ grandfather.
