COVID mortality

Drowning would be the primary dx. Falling on ice would be secondary.

Cause of death is often messy. There are lots of cases where a cascade of things go wrong, and pinning the death on any one of them is dicey.

The thing is, if he hadn’t had fallen, he wouldn’t have drowned.

If his wife didn’t tell him to shovel the snow…

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Sounds like a solid case for manslaughter.

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Well I’m thinking in terms of a medical claim. The primary “injury” was drowning so that’s what would be primary dx. I’m much less familiar with death certificates.

This was post “666”, and it was about death. What are the odds of that? Must be a sign.

In a thread about mortality? Probably pretty close to 1.

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thanks for the replies on elderly deaths. i see it is more complicated than I may have guessed.

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I think your link requires a NYT subscription, here is a link anyone can read. I think.

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The summary is:

Early in the pandemic we were doing as well as or better than many other wealthy nations. But we have fallen behind, and we’ve now exceeded our peers in total covid mortality. We’ve done vastly worse with omicron than other wealthy nations, with higher death rates and higher hospitalization rates.

For all the encouragement that American health leaders drew from other countries’ success in withstanding the Omicron surge, the outcomes in the U.S. have been markedly different. Hospital admissions in the U.S. swelled to much higher rates than in Western Europe, leaving some states struggling to provide care. Americans are now dying from Covid at nearly double the daily rate of Britons and four times the rate of Germans.

Deaths have now surpassed the worst days of the autumn surge of the Delta variant, and are more than two-thirds as high as the record tolls of last winter, when vaccines were largely unavailable.

the share of Americans who have been killed by the coronavirus is at least 63 percent higher than in any of these other large, wealthy nations, according to a New York Times analysis of mortality figures.

This is probably driven largely by our abysmal vaccination numbers. (Comparisons given in article.) Despite an early lead, we trail most wealthy numbers in total vaccinations, vaccinations among those over 65, and booster shots. We are also fatter (but not older) than other wealthy nations.

Also, in our wish to “get back to normal” we’ve stopped other mitigation measures:

While infection levels remain high in many states, scientists said that some deaths could still be averted by people taking precautions around older and more vulnerable Americans, like testing themselves and wearing masks

And

“We’ve normalized a very high death toll in the U.S.,” said Anne Sosin, who studies health equity at Dartmouth. “If we want to declare the end of the pandemic right now, what we’re doing is normalizing a very high rate of death.”

I saw another article about a key factor of how well a country weathered the pandemic was the level of trust in the government. So, pretty easy to see the dumpster fire in the US with that.

I grabbed a few of the graphs:

And, as I’m finding with our huge increases in some non-COVID causes of death, I bet we’re leading with that as well.

do other parts of the world have the unexplained excess mortality we have too? Or some of it?

I have no idea, mainly because I am unfamiliar with other countries’ mortality databases.

I am full of WONDER:

Hmmm, I need to edit some more videos I recorded, but haven’t put together yet…

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I’m going to drop this here, because I just recorded a video (but it’s going to take me a while to edit, hold your horses)

the SOA released this:

Here is a key table:

So much ugliness in that 2019-2020 change column.

The only CODs with reduction in age-adjusted death rate:
Cancer
Pulmonary
Suicide

That’s it.
But if you dig into Suicide, you’ll see that it got worse for young adults/teens/kids. Woo.

“Assault”, of course, is homicide, and that’s not evenly distributed over age, sex, or race. It got bad in 2020, and it did not improve in 2021.

Oh and I see drug overdoses aren’t in that particular table - I mean, they’re inside “accidents”, but you have to go farther in the report:

page 23:

This is hideous. It was bad before 2020, but this is just horrifying.

mini-rant

we are 2 years into a frickin pandemic

these data dashboards are STILL using when-reported for COVID deaths as opposed to when-occurred

It seems that JH is showing deaths by reporting date (blue), and not by death date (orange).
There were changes in the dashboard’s back door to the data, but now deaths (by death date) are reported in a new json.

I like to look at both. Date-occurred is always biased down in recent data, and I’m usually most interested in recent data. My state’s primary dashboard shows date occurred, and i routinely download their larger data set so i can look at the more reliable (for my purposes) report-date data.

Yes, it’s bumpy. Yes, it’s zero on weekends and holidays. Yes, you occasionally see weird reporting glitches. But it’s not uniformly biased.

I look at both report date and accident date data for insurance reserve reviews, too