Contest! Predict the 2020 Swing State Winners and Margins!

The Sandbox Political Topics
43

I swung for a polling error towards Biden, but the error went the other way!

As for initial results… sorry for the delay but counting up your guys’ score is taking a long time :wink: I’ll probably wait until tomorrow so we can get closer to the actuals.

44

:popcorn:

45

Preliminary results as of 5pm ET on 11/5. I just took results as-is, though margins will keep changing and we might have results flip in a few states - look for YankeeTripper to take the lead if/when Pennsylvania flips to Biden. Though depending on state margin changes, AStudent isn’t far behind.

Scoring Actual Urysohn IPD YankTrip JoeBlow LuckyHat Mayan Bing AStudent soyleche Twig93 TedHoff
Arizona 2 9 9 9 10 0 6 10 9 10 0 9
Florida -3 0 0 9 0 8 0 0 10 0 7 0
Georgia -0 10 9 7 0 8 0 0 6 0 9 0
Iowa -8 5 2 6 2 6 0 4 8 4 5 5
Michigan 3 9 4 8 6 8 5 5 8 5 8 5
Minnesota 7 8 5 8 7 6 7 9 9 9 9 8
Nevada 1 4 7 10 7 9 5 6 9 5 9 5
North Carolina -1 0 0 10 0 10 0 0 8 0 10 0
Ohio -8 4 3 4 4 5 3 3 7 4 4 3
Pennsylvania -1 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0
Texas -5 0 6 9 7 9 0 6 7 9 8 6
Wisconsin 1 6 4 7 6 9 1 1 5 5 7 4
NE-02 B 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 2 2 2
ME-02 T 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 57 51 89 51 91 29 46 86 53 78 47
Player Score
LuckyHat 91
YankTrip 89
AStudent 86
Twig93 78
Urysohn 57
soyleche 53
IPD 51
JoeBlow 51
TedHoff 47
Bing 46
Mayan 29
46

If the only state to flip from here on out is PA and all other results hold, YT will have correctly predicted each state and only missed on ME-02.

47

I would not mind one bit if in the end I get Georgia wrong.

48

stop the counting!

Anyone that is still counting after I am in the lead is cheating.

49

Looks like things changed considerably over the last 24 hours, which is good because I did really poorly.

50

Update! Georgia and Pennsylvania have flipped directions, and a few margin shifts in other states have put A Student on top for now, but the race is still too close to call!

Scoring Actual Urysohn IPD YankTrip JoeBlow LuckyHat Mayan Bing AStudent soyleche Twig93 TedHoff
Arizona 1 10 10 10 9 0 5 9 10 9 0 8
Florida -3 0 0 9 0 8 0 0 10 0 7 0
Georgia 0 0 0 0 10 0 8 9 0 9 0 8
Iowa -8 5 2 6 2 6 0 4 8 4 5 5
Michigan 3 9 4 8 6 8 5 5 8 5 8 5
Minnesota 7 8 5 8 7 6 7 9 9 9 9 8
Nevada 2 5 8 9 8 8 6 7 10 6 10 6
North Carolina -1 0 0 10 0 10 0 0 8 0 10 0
Ohio -8 4 3 4 4 5 3 3 7 4 4 3
Pennsylvania 0 8 7 8 9 0 5 4 9 4 7 6
Texas -6 0 5 8 6 8 0 5 6 8 7 5
Wisconsin 1 6 4 7 6 9 1 1 5 5 7 4
NE-02 B 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 2 2 2
ME-02 T 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 57 50 89 69 72 42 58 90 65 76 60
Player Score
AStudent 90
YankTrip 89
Twig93 76
LuckyHat 72
JoeBlow 69
soyleche 65
TedHoff 60
Bing 58
Urysohn 57
IPD 50
Mayan 42
51

Man, getting AZ wrong hurt me in this contest. Oh well, happy to be wrong in that direction.

52

Woohoo!

Lock those results up.

54

Final Results! Congratulations to @A_Student for the win!

Scoring Actual Urysohn IPD YankTrip JoeBlow LuckyHat Mayan Bing AStudent soyleche Twig93 TedHoff
Arizona 0 9 9 9 8 0 4 8 9 8 0 7
Florida -3 0 0 9 0 8 0 0 10 0 7 0
Georgia 0 0 0 0 10 0 8 9 0 9 0 8
Iowa -8 5 2 6 2 6 0 4 8 4 5 5
Michigan 3 9 4 8 6 8 5 5 8 5 8 5
Minnesota 7 8 5 8 7 6 7 9 9 9 9 8
Nevada 3 6 9 8 9 7 7 8 9 7 9 7
North Carolina -1 0 0 10 0 10 0 0 8 0 10 0
Ohio -8 4 3 4 4 5 3 3 7 4 4 3
Pennsylvania 1 9 8 9 10 0 6 5 10 5 8 7
Texas -6 0 5 8 6 8 0 5 6 8 7 5
Wisconsin 1 6 4 7 6 9 1 1 5 5 7 4
NE-02 B 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 2 2 2
ME-02 T 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 58 51 88 70 71 43 59 89 66 76 61
Player Score
AStudent 89
YankTrip 88
Twig93 76
LuckyHat 71
JoeBlow 70
soyleche 66
TedHoff 61
Bing 59
Urysohn 58
IPD 51
Mayan 43
55

Yay! I’m the middlest!

56

Man, I finally won a contest, and it is one I put no thought in and have little knowledge. Why can’t I do this in the football contests?!?

Thanks for running it mod.

57

You’re mean, or pretty close…

58

I’d like to object on the ground there was fraud.

Well, there wasn’t fraud but the results were manipulated.

Well, not really manipulated but they’re wrong because I wasn’t present when all the calculations were made and I shouldn’t have to do them myself to verify if they’re really accurate.

And even if I did and they matched, they’re not what I want to believe to be true.

59

So you’re saying that the person that lost the contest should have actually won?

I can get behind that.

60

CNN still hasn’t called Arizona. Biden’s lead is down to 11,537. It seems unlikely that there’s that many remaining ballots, but the ones that have been coming in have a heavy Trump lean.

They also haven’t called North Carolina or Georgia but both of those seem far more clear cut to me.

They did finally call ME-02 (which I honestly think they forgot about) and AK for Trump.

If AZ flips then that brings my point total up to 86 and AStudent to 80 and YankTrip to 79.

Seems unlikely at this point, but it’s a big swing if it happens.

61

Only if you promise to name me your running mate - though I’d settle for Secretary of Defense.

62

The batches were coming in 55-58% Trump. All that’s left to count now are provisional ballots. Assuming all those get counted (they won’t) Trump needs 84% of those to make up the deficit. Not going to happen.

However since it’s within 0.5% I’m assuming CNN won’t call until it’s certified, similar to Georgia.

63

Of course I say this and then cnn calls it