If you are looking for something to distract check out The Queenâs Gambit on Netflix.
Thanks! I might do that. (Or I might wait until I can watch that with my husband. I think weâd both enjoy it.)
Thanks for the inviteâŚIâm more of a âwinner takes allâ kind of predictorâŚI actually donât look at pollsâŚjust futures marketsâŚand they donât give any information about margin of victory.
Regardless, fun little game you got hereâŚenjoy the evening.
Iâve had that one recommended to me by NetflixâŚIâve saved that email because I donât want to forget to watch itâŚYouâve obviously watched it? An endorsement by MayanActuary is a powerful motivator.
Iâm very glad to hear you saved that email. You do not want to lose this deal. Youâll be doubly glad to know that I think you will enjoy it MORE than Lucy, given your affinity for chess. Best chess-themed show/movie Iâve ever come across.
I watched that recently, much more interesting than I expected from a mini series about chess.
| State | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Biden | 3 |
| Florida | Biden | 1 |
| Georgia | Biden | 2 |
| Iowa | Trump | 3 |
| Michigan | Biden | 8 |
| Minnesota | Biden | 9 |
| Nevada | Biden | 6 |
| North Carolina | Biden | 4 |
| Ohio | Trump | 1 |
| Pennsylvania | Biden | 4 |
| Texas | Trump | 1 |
| Wisconsin | Biden | 7 |
Bonus
NE-02 - Biden
ME-02 - Biden
That lands at 351-187 in the Electoral College.
Here are the final entries barring any late stragglers entering in the last few minutes. I wish I knew some way to add color on this site to highlight Blue/Red, but right now B is positive and T is negative.
Best of luck!
| State | Actual | Urysohn | IPD | YankTrip | JoeBlow | LuckyHat | Mayan | Bing | AStudent | soyleche | Twig93 | TedHoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | ? | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| Florida | ? | 3 | 0 | -2 | 2 | -1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 0 | -0 | 1 |
| Georgia | ? | -0 | -1 | -3 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 1 | -4 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| Iowa | ? | -3 | -0 | -4 | -0 | -4 | 1 | -2 | -6 | -2 | -3 | -3 |
| Michigan | ? | 4 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 8 |
| Minnesota | ? | 9 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 9 |
| Nevada | ? | 7 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| North Carolina | ? | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| Ohio | ? | -2 | -1 | -2 | -2 | -3 | -1 | -1 | -5 | -2 | -2 | -1 |
| Pennsylvania | ? | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -0 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 4 |
| Texas | ? | 1 | -1 | -4 | -2 | -4 | 0 | -1 | -2 | -4 | -3 | -1 |
| Wisconsin | ? | 5 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 7 |
| NE-02 | ? | B | B | B | B | B | B | B | T | B | B | B |
| ME-02 | ? | B | B | B | B | T | B | B | B | B | B | B |
And here are the consensus comparisons between GoActuary, 538, and RealClearPolitics-
| State | GoA | 538 | RCP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 1.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| Florida | 0.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| Georgia | -0.5 | 0.9 | -1.0 |
| Iowa | -2.4 | -1.5 | -2.0 |
| Michigan | 5.8 | 8.0 | 4.2 |
| Minnesota | 7.8 | 9.1 | 4.3 |
| Nevada | 3.9 | 6.1 | 2.4 |
| North Carolina | 0.6 | 1.7 | -0.2 |
| Ohio | -2.0 | -0.6 | -1.0 |
| Pennsylvania | 3.3 | 4.7 | 1.2 |
| Texas | -1.9 | -1.5 | -1.3 |
| Wisconsin | 6.0 | 8.3 | 6.7 |
| NE-02 | B | B | B |
| ME-02 | B | B | B |
So, weâre generally pessimistic on Biden compared to 538 and perhaps slightly optimistic compared to RCP. But I think everyone is signaling a Biden victory with LuckyHat having it the closest at (if I have a mapped filled in right) 270-268 and MayanActuary having it a 395-143 blowout.
Evergreen
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The startribune has even more recommendations:
FULL STORY BUT NO PICS
If thereâs a nail-biting thriller about Chinese checkers, I havenât seen it. Chess, on the other hand, continues to provide high drama.
Look no further than Netflixâs âThe Queenâs Gambit,â a riveting new miniseries about an orphan (Anya Taylor-Joy) who conquers the gaming world with relentless ambition and a steady supply of little green pills. Director Scott Frank breaks up the board action with long tracking shots and a toe-tapping soundtrack that makes you feel like youâre watching a new installment of âOceanâs 11.â
âGambitâ joins a roster of other chess movies and specials that are worth streaming:
âCritical Thinkingâ (2020)
John Leguizamo makes an impressive feature directorial debut in this underdog film about a scrappy Florida high school team that took home a national championship in 1998. Leguizamo, who also stars as the teensâ determined coach, does a superb job of capturing urban life and the struggles his heroes face when theyâre not capturing pawns. Amazon
âBobby Fischer Against the Worldâ (2011)
You donât need to know the difference between a bishop and a knight to be sucked into this fascinating documentary about one of Americaâs greatest mad geniuses. Director Liz Garbus deserves an honorary chess master title for making us feel like we know Fischer â whether we want to or not. YouTube
âChess in Concertâ (2009)
Not everything that ABBA touched turned to gold. This musical collaboration between Tim Rice and ABBA members Benny Andersson and Bjorn Ulvaeus never really got off the board (exception: the hit single âOne Night in Bangkokâ). But itâs amusing to see Idina Menzel and Josh Groban interpret songs from this London stage production. YouTube
âSearching for Bobby Fischerâ (1993)
Quite simply, one of the most feel-good movies ever made. Joe Mantegna, Joan Allen, Ben Kingsley and Laurence Fishburne are among the grown-ups who support a prodigy as he tries to balance childhood with championships. Tubi
âThe Coldest Gameâ (2019)
The Cold War gets played out in a sweaty-palm showdown between a Russian grandÂmaster and an American professor who canât move a pawn without being drunk. Bill Pullman pulls out all the stops as the troubled teacher who reluctantly steps into the role of hero. Itâs far from a classic, but itâs a kick to watch the âIndependence Dayâ president pretend that heâs starring in a remake of âBarfly.â Netflix
Rob Lowe and Allison Janney during âA West Wing Special to Benefit When We All Vote.â
âA West Wing Special to Benefit When We All Voteâ (2020)
This stage version of a 2002 episode of the Emmy-winning series uses President Bartletâs mastery of the game as an analogy to how he deals with a growing crisis with China. The special was previously exclusive to HBO Max, but is now free for nonsubscribers through the end of the year. hbomax.com/votebecause
âQueen of Katweâ (2016)
Chess gets the Disney treatment in this family treat about a 10-year-old Ugandan girl who pulls her family out of poverty through her chess skills. Lupita Nyongâo and David Oyelowo are both terrific as the adults who cheer her on. Disney+
AZ margin is a big surprise for me. AZ and PA were both big ??, but I didnt see AZ going biden +5.
Biden Taking AZ = Dems win. Rs machine forgot to show up there.
Lots of 5-8% polling misses from 538âŚamazes me.
McSally on the ballot was a drag. Maybe sheâll run for governor there in '22 and lose the party another prominent office.
AZ has been swinging purple for a while and I guess enough people have moved in from elsewhere + Cindy McCain coming out for Biden + formerly GOP voters leaving = flipping over. Dave Wasserman said it was more likely to go for Biden than WI/MI.
I thought the polls would be off. But not so inconsistently off.
agreed that AZ had a bit of a perfect storm to wash out the Rs
Granted, McGrath was always a longshot, she was double-digits down and needed massive discontent with McConnell that was never going to appear ⌠but Graham was thought to be in serious trouble as polling showed him neck-and-neck with Harrison.
Put another way, almost $200 million bought the Democrats about 2.6 points closer in South Carolina and -5.1 points closer in Kentucky, and Harrison is about 14 points behind Graham right now barring some massive influx of yet-to-be-counted votes that pulls him considerably closer.
Yep, I just posted something similar (well, my own words) in the other thread. I see donations going way down 2 and 4 years from now. Or maybe going down in specific places?
The wasted ad spending seems related to the polling misses though as well. If the polls are better, more money flows to Biden and battleground states/races Iâd think.
The polls consistently showed McConnell with a double digit lead in Kentucky so I donât think you can blame the pollsters for that race.
2 Likes
Fair. Maybe itâs just good collections from candidates then. I saw ads that had âgoodâ polls for Mcgrath - much better than double digits. So probably good marketing. If only they were as effective at targeting and changing voters minds 