Bridge: 2024 MSC discussion

                       A     B     C       D     E            F       G         H
procrastinator                                                                  
oirg                   P    3N    3C      2S    5C            2H      4H        HQ
SW                     P    3N    3N      3C    4C            2H      3S        HK
Klaymen                                                                         
ST                                                                              
BTDT                   P    3N    3N      2D    4C            P      2C        H8
NN                     P    3N    3D      3C    4C            P      3N        SJ
veni vidi vici         P    3N    3D      2N    5C            2H      2C        HQ
Abstract Actuary       P    3N     P      2D    4C            2H      2C        HQ
Leading                P    3N                  4C            2H      2C        HQ

NN didnā€™t change any of the leaders, but I had failed to notice before that AAā€™s switch on G created a leader there.

A) 3NT. I assume 2S would have been natural as well, and already shown a very strong hand. Partner must have a rock. Pass close second choice.
B) 5C, with little conviction.
C) 3 hearts. Keeping the go high trend from the first two problems going.
D) 2NT, a little temped by 1NT given what counts as an opening bid these days.
E) 5 clubs. First one that seems clear to me in the set.
F) Pass. Donā€™t expect it to score well, but what I would do at the table. Seems like a misfit deal, happy to be on defense.
G) 3NT Footnote seems to describe what I have. Perhaps a bit strong for the bid, but a bit lopsided for 4D, nothing else appeals.
H) Heart king. I do not like this club holding on this auction. Perhaps I should lead a low heart, hoping for Jx from pd, as if RHO has AJx(x), I do not like our chances, but will be boring. Spade lead seems like it needs too much.

Wow, all alone on first three problems, does not bode wellā€¦

                       A     B     C       D     E            F       G         H
procrastinator        3N    5C    3H      2N    5C            P      3N        HK
oirg                   P    3N    3C      2S    5C            2H      4H        HQ
SW                     P    3N    3N      3C    4C            2H      3S        HK
Klaymen                                                                         
ST                                                                              
BTDT                   P    3N    3N      2D    4C            P      2C        H8
NN                     P    3N    3D      3C    4C            P      3N        SJ
veni vidi vici         P    3N    3D      2N    5C            2H      2C        HQ
Abstract Actuary       P    3N     P      2D    4C            2H      2C        HQ
Leading                P    3N                  4C            2H      2C        HQ

Still lacking a leader on two of them. BTW, on H I now think itā€™s pretty clear that the consensusā€™s HQ is better than the HK. On a double-dummy basis there canā€™t be any difference between those two. and if we win trick 1 we should be better placed on how to continue if we know partner does not have the J, or if partner plays the J to trick 1. Most likely partner will overtake with Ax on either lead, if dummy does not have the J. (If dummy does have the J and partner has the A, we will wish we had led small. and small could be right, but I donā€™t think we are going to do that.)

From 4Sigma by e-mail (I had only sent him the problems and indicated that C and D were currently tied, with the current results on those two)

                       A     B     C       D     E            F       G         H
procrastinator        3N    5C    3H      2N    5C            P      3N        HK
oirg                   P    3N    3C      2S    5C            2H      4H        HQ
SW                     P    3N    3N      3C    4C            2H      3H        HK
Klaymen                                                                         
ST                                                                              
BTDT                   P    3N    3N      2D    4C            P      2C        H8
NN                     P    3N    3D      3C    4C            P      3N        SJ
veni vidi vici         P    3N    3D      2N    5C            2H      2C        HQ
4Sigma                 P    3N    3N      3C    4C            2D      3N        HK
Abstract Actuary       P    3N     P      2D    4C            2H      2C        HQ
Leading                P    3N    3N      3C    4C            2H      3N        HQ

4Sigma breaks both of the previous ties, but creates two new ties.
On G, Iā€™m currently breaking the tie in favor of 3N, my second choice (and which is an additional factor in the scoring, since my current vote was not for either of the leaders).
On H, Iā€™m currently breaking the ā€œtieā€ in favor of the HQ. Unfortunately 4Sigma had not read the discussion so far, and from his comments it doesnā€™t look like he thought about K vs Q. Either way, I (tabulated for HK, my initial choice) had already said I think HQ is better, so that ones not really a tie any more.

I expect to submit those this evening, unless Runewell or ST votes and changes things. (Or perhaps if someone posts thoughts about breaking the tie on G). Must submit something by midnight.

Those leading choices submitted

                  A           B        C        D        E        F        G        H        Total
procrastinator    3N      70  5C   30  3H   100 2N   50  5C   100 P    60  3N   90  HK   90  590  
oirg              P       100 3N   100 3C   0   2S   100 5C   100 2H   100 4H   70  HQ   100 670  
SW                P       100 3N   100 3N   60  3C   90  4C   50  2H   100 3H   0   HK   90  590  
Klaymen                                                                                           
ST                                                                                                
BTDT              P       100 3N   100 3N   60  2D   70  4C   50  P    60  2C   80  H8   80  600  
NN                P       100 3N   100 3D   80  3C   90  4C   50  P    60  3N   90  SJ   70  640  
veni vidi vici    P       100 3N   100 3D   80  2N   50  5C   100 2H   100 2C   80  HQ   100 710  
4Sigma            P       100 3N   100 3N   60  3C   90  4C   50  2D   70  3N   90  HK   90  650  
Abstract Actuary  P       100 3N   100 P    0   2D   70  4C   50  2H   100 2C   80  HQ   100 600  
Submitted         P       100 3N   100 3N   60  3C   90  4C   50  2H   100 3N   90  HQ   100 690  


                                                                                  
                  P       100 3N   100 3H   100 2S   100 5C   100 2H   100 4D   100 HQ   100   
                  3N      70  5C   30  3D   80  3C   90  4C   50  2D   70  3N   90  HK   90       
                                       3N   60  2D   70           P    60  2C   80  H8   80       
                                       3C   0   2N   50                    4H   70  SJ   70       

The Submitted 690 tied for 47-55 in the Honor Roll, the lowest score making the roll. VVVā€™s 710 was the only individual score which would have made it, in a tie for 27-33.

A: 3D. Would be good to know what 2D, 2H, 2N, 3D, 3H and 3N all mean. Presumably 2D and 2H are too weak here. Likely 2NT is as well. Assuming 3D shows the right strength, I like this as our best chance to figure out if we have a heart fit.

B: 4S. Iā€™d like to know what 4H means. If it is a cue bid and implies enough strength, I may jump straight to blackwood, because we really just need to know about AKQ of spades. If 4H is natural, shows 5-5, or shows strength, but not enough to explore slam, then that could lead to 4S or pass.

C: 2C. The simple game force seems simple enough and gives us the most room to explore.

D: 2H.

E: 4C. Presumably 4C is Michaelā€™s implying 5/5 in the majors and strength. Maybe implies a little too much strength for the hand, but Iā€™m leaning aggressive here even though weā€™re vulnerable. My majors holding is too good to pass up. If 4C isnā€™t Michaelā€™s, then I would go 3S.

F: 3NT. Seems worth the risk.

G: 3NT. Hmmm. With double stops in opponents long suit, no risk there. And partners strength plus my support in 2 of the other suits feels like enough to make 3NT.

H: DA. Also considered the 6 of Clubs which I believe would be the bot lead. With 3 little spades, I think opening the Ace of diamonds with the hopes to ruff a third diamond trick feels optimal. Once you lead the ace can then look at Dummy and potentially change plans.

A. 2D. Close second choice 2NT.
B. 5H. Extremely subtle, maybe too subtle. The clearest thing is that this must show some control in each minor. With a control in only one minor, we surely would bid it, and with a control in neither we would just bid 4S. Does it show both aces? Not totally clear.
C. 2N. We donā€™t have quite enough to force to game. If we were sure that 2C would do a better job than 2NT for getting us to the right denomination, that could tip the scales in its favor, but 2C is mainly catering to partner having 3 hearts but not enough to bid over 2NT.
D. 2H, though fairly likely I would just pass at the table.
E. 4C. It think the system notes say this shows both majors.
F. 3D. Not bidding 3H on a doubleton 10. Not going past 3NT.
G. 4S. And hope.
H. Club 10. Anything could be right. The only suit Iā€™m sure I wouldnā€™t choose is diamonds.

For my personal schedule, I may need to submit by Friday, Aug 23. So please try to get your votes in much earlier than normal.

October guesses:

A. 2N
B. pass
C. 2N
D. 2Hā€™
E. 4C
F. 3S
G. 3N
H. spade 2

                       A     B     C       D     E            F       G         H
procrastinator                                                                  
oirg                  2N     P    2N      2H    4C            3S      3N        S2
SW                    2D    5C    2N      2H    4C            3D      4S      C 10
Klaymen                                                                         
ST                                                                              
BTDT                                                                            
NN                                                                              
veni vidi vici                                                                  
4Sigma                                                                          
Abstract Actuary      3D    4S    2C      2H    4C            3N      3N        DA
Leading                                   2H    4C                              

2 with 3-way agreement, but 4 with not even 2 voters agreeing.

A) 2D
B) 5H
C) 1N
D) 2H
E) 4C
F) 4C
G) 3N
H) Club Ten

                       A     B     C       D     E            F       G         H
procrastinator                                                                  
oirg                  2N     P    2N      2H    4C            3S      3N        S2
SW                    2D    5C    2N      2H    4C            3D      4S       C10
Klaymen                                                                         
ST                                                                              
BTDT                  2D    5H    1N      2H    4C            4C      3N       C10
NN                                                                              
veni vidi vici                                                                  
4Sigma                                                                          
Abstract Actuary      3D    4S    2C      2H    4C            3N      3N        DA
Leading                                   2H    4C                  3N          

Now with 3 leading choices, but still with 2 with no agreement.

For my personal schedule, I may need to submit by Friday, Aug 23. So please try to get your votes in much earlier than normal.

Still would be nice to submit by Friday Aug 23, but doesnā€™t look like thatā€™s likely.

A. 2NT. Thought about 2D, but worried partner will not expect this much, too easy to miss game.
B. 6 spades. May not score well in a contest, but what I would bid IRL. Hard to construct a hand where slam is worse than a finesse, and donā€™t see how to find out when spade jack and heart queen are both important pieces.
C. 3 Hearts. Heart 98 convince me.
D. 2 hearts. Passed hand, including no weak 2, partner should know I donā€™t have great hearts.
E. 4 clubs. Could be convinced 4 spades is better, partner needs a pretty big major suit disparity for hearts to play better.
F. 4 clubs. Qx of hearts I might bid hearts, but Tx not enough. With partner bidding 3C instead of 2S, do not think 3NT is likely to be right, so ok bypassing it.
G. 3NT. Hammanā€™s rule.
H. Heart 6 (or 8 if BWS convention is 3rd and low). No logic, just gut reaction.

Just digging in here as responses are coming in.

I see all others are falling into the 2 range. Is this a difference of opinion with level of strength? Or am I incorrect that a 2-level bid shows a weaker hand. E.g., 2H or 2N both could get passed.

Can someone help with what partnerā€™s 4H means. I like the idea of exploring slam, which feels where others want to go. Maybe I mean to change my bid to 4NT.

2NT (my choice) is invitational, so can be passed, but shows a decent hand.
2D and 2H are both not forcing. 2H is relatively likely to be passed, and 2D is often either passed or corrected to 2H.

On B, I think it is slam exploration and not a cue bid, but rather shows ā€œwhere he livesā€. Maybe AQJxx AQxxx Kx x. Others may not agree and think it is a cue bid (I play natural more than most), but think it being a slam try will find wide agreement.

Yes, 2H and 2N could get passed. Not necessarily a bad thing. If 2N is passed I donā€™t think we would want to be in 3N, though itā€™s conceivable we would want to have been in 4H.

Thereā€™s also a question of what 3D shows here. We are a passed hand. Are we going to have a game forcing hand when partner only rebid his suit? Very unlikely. So maybe 3D is natural, highty encourging but not forcing. Or maybe 3D should imply a club fit (since otherwise we are getting the auction pretty quite high with potentially no fit).

Itā€™s certainly expressing interest in slam, since otherwise he would just bid 4S since he knows we have a spade fit. (With some hands he would just have passed 3S, but once he goes on anything besides 4S is expressing some slam interest.) We obviously have a super hand for him, about the best we could have for this sequence. I would FAR rather bid 6S than 4S over 4H and will not be at all surprised if 4S gets a 0. The challenge here, in my opinion, is whether our side has a reasonable way to choose between 6 and 7.

                       A     B     C       D     E            F       G         H
procrastinator        2N    6S    3H      2H    4C            4C      3N        H6
oirg                  2N     P    2N      2H    4C            3S      3N        S2
SW                    2D    5C    2N      2H    4C            3D      4S       C10
Klaymen                                                                         
ST                                                                              
BTDT                  2D    5H    1N      2H    4C            4C      3N       C10
NN                                                                              
veni vidi vici                                                                  
4Sigma                                                                          
Abstract Actuary      3D    4S    2C      2H    4C            3N      3N        DA
Leading                                   2H    4C                  3N