If the world gets to this pointe not having Bitcoin will be the least of my concerns IMO. If Bitcoin is a bet on the world falling apart then I am not betting on that.An inflation hedge seems to be a decent defense but real property serves that purpose. Seems like my big house is better for that and I get to live in it. I still haven’t heard a reason that Bitcoin should be worth anything.
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Yeah, I know that is supposed to be the appeal. I suspect crypto is about anonymous as real estate, in other words, not at all. They can track every penny in and out, a lot of the exchanges, and a bunch of secondary signals.
Anonymous is still cash. Not something that leaves footprints on the internet :).
The world probably won’t get to that point. The real appeal is how there are retired 20 year old walking around with 5 houses. You can argue it has no intrinsic value, but other people will disagree. But then you can speculate on how many people agree and bet on that.
The part I don’t get is: when I buy it - who just sold it to me?? And what did I just “buy”??? When I sell bc the price went up, who’s buying it?
I guess it’s like the stock market but tbh I kinda ask those same questions when I’m buying and selling stocks! 
yeah it’s just like buying stocks. buying the coin through an exchange platform kinda of defeats the purpose of it being decentralized, since there are records of purchase and exchange.
I don’t know who actually owns the coins. Like, maybe Robinhood owns them.
Actually yeah I guess it is like buying stocks.
I get dividends through Robinhood. Not sure if I get to participate in shareholder meetings and stuff though. How do I obtain proof??
Beats me. The entirety of my knowledge is contained in this thread. If I make money by owning them it will be on luck.
I get that, but if my view is that it’s overvalued how can I convince myself to buy high?
When I bought Tesla some 5 years ago it was at like $38, and everyone was screaming that it was severely overvalued.
It is now sitting at $738.
You don’t convince yourself. You just do it. Using old school valuation methods will never make you rich.
He’s a lucky guy. Also, once you become famous, your own speculation is a self fulfilling prophesy for the most part. People want to buy what Buffet buys, raising the price. If valuation methods work, the price will simply correct itself so that it no longer works.
To put it simply, there’s only one Warren Buffet. There are millions of investors. He literally can just be a lucky guy winning every single bet he’s ever done.
Berkshire typically buys entire companies, so people can’t really just pile in.
And there are lots of very wealthy hedge fund managers, they’re doing the same thing.
It only takes 27 rounds for a bet of $1 double or nothing to achieve a wealth of 67 million dollars. Chances are low, but there’s only one Warren Buffet.
Which is more likely? That he “figured it out” amongst all these IQ 250 people, or that he just got lucky?
Again, Buffett is just the wealthiest example, but he’s not the only one by far. And the bets were nothing like double or nothing.
And I’m not sure what you mean by he figured it out as if other intelligent people don’t. There are entire departments of security analysis at large investment banks that make loads of money.
again, where there are winners, there are losers.
How do you distinguish success from luck? Are you saying there’s a guaranteed pathway to investment success? Why do people think the market is unpredictable then? How many of these are self fulfilling prophecies and insider trading?
It’s not all zero sum. People have different horizons, life changes, etc.
And success vs luck is determined by risk adjusted returns and track record. And the market is mostly unpredictable because it’s big money to hunt out the inefficiencies.
And if it’s all insider trading then how do you explain the big moves when good news is announced?
it’s obviously more complicated than that.
But still, it’ll be impossible to determine whether market analysis really contributes to anything material, compared to someone who is 100/100 on their investment choices.
I bought some polygon last week along with some DOGE and Ethereum. Just a few hundred bucks total because this stuff seems stupid and is probably just people putting in stimulus checks and it will all crash soon. Polygon is having a nice day today though.
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I am pretty sure the crypto crash last week was 100% a result of me putting in a few hundred bucks, since I have the worst luck at this stuff, it just had to happen.
Other than the two I noted above, I’ve bought based on tips from my brother who reads about them as a hobby.
He texted me last week: I’m gonna stop giving you tips if you keep breaking shit!
I don’t own any DOGE so feel free to buy as it will certainly be the one that pays off.