The White House is starting to push a new “Bidenomics” narrative. Right now a majority of Americans think the Biden admin isn’t doing a good job with the economy. This narrative may be trying to turn that opinion around, but I think this attempt could backfire on Biden.

Points I think the WH will push in the Bidenomics pitch:

The US is doing much better with inflation than the rest of the G7

Inflation pressures at the grocery store continue to drop:

US GDP has rebounded quickly, and exceeds the recovery in the rest of the G7

Biden himself is pushing the low unemployment angle: 16 straight months under 4% unemployment is the longest stretch since the 1950s

Black/White employment gap has vanished.

Why I think the narrative may backfire: gasoline prices have dropped a lot since the 2022 peak, but are still higher than they were during the Trump admin. Don’t know that will change before the election, particularly with the Russia mess.

While grocery inflation is slowing considerably, prices are still meaningfully higher than they were pre-pandemic. Families are still feeling the pinch, even if the pain is not increasing.

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I mean, they did what they were supposed to in raising interest rates. Although when he was VP the administration should have gotten the fed to raise them during the 2nd term because it was clear the economy had recovered and a lot of the startups that emerged since then are unsustainable and are just there to dupe investors (Uber, wework, theranos, etc.).

I wish people wouldn’t blame or credit the president for natural market economy changes.
I don’t think it is the President (or Congress’ or any government official) to control or to keep at some price level the gasoline prices. Or any product or service’s prices.
Just keep us safe from enemies, foreign and domestic and government-controlled. Protect our weakest by taxing the strongest.
It’s not really that hard (well, until the strong use their strength to get you voted out).


To add to what DTNF said . . .

How much of the “grocery inflation” is tied to inflated costs due to supply-chain issues (and subsequent resolution) rather than any particular policy of the current administration?

I don’t disagree, but how the economy is doing seems to have a big effect on election results for incumbents. The only 1 term presidents in the last century got voted out when the economic conditions weren’t great. The economy was far from the only reason each got voted out and may not have been the primary reason for any of them, but it was a contributing factor.

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Yeah, that grocery inflation is temporary, and people should respond by not buying so damn much (or not throwing away so damn much).

To be clear, government should not raise the money supply without a solid process for undoing it THAT THEY WILL GO THROUGH WITH!
I mean, take the example of fucking with interest rates. Someone gets screwed by this going one way or the other, so they raise holy hell about it. and if they are huge donors, well, they’ll get their way, to the detriment of less loud people.

I cannot help fix the stupidity (innumeracy, mainly) of American voters. The opposing candidates know it and seize upon it.
What Biden’s team is doing is showing that nothing is all that bad. It also shows that they did nothing to help nor harm.
I mean, look at the graph of employment ratio. No age-adjustment there, as more white boomers settle in to retirement, while black boomers (I’ll have to check on the existence of such a thing, but note the higher mortality if it does) are less likely to be able to retire. Did Biden do anything? I doubt it. But, it’s important to note that Biden’s team also recognizes the stupidity of American voters. Fight fire with gasoline.

Yeah, obviously Biden has to spin it, but “we did better than Europe” is a nonstarter, since no true American gives a fuck about Europe.

He should just say some dumb shit about quarterly dow growth and do another fake victory lap for ending covid.

I think he has done fine on the economy. Only bone I would pick is the 3rd stimulus round should have either not passed or been substantially smaller. Passing a $2 trillion giveaway into a rapidly improving economic situation kind of kickstarted US Inflation which probably domino’d into the rest of the worlds current problems.

Unemployment is going to be low for the foreseeable future no matter who is President do the macro aging population and not due to anything the government is doing. I would focus on the fact that the % of Americans age 25-54 that have a job has finally gotten past the same metric prior to the housing bust. That means there is opportunity and also incentive to work.


Add manufacturing jobs to the list. And those created by the infrastructure bill.

The world economy was $104 Trillion in 2022. Are you saying a $2Trillion investment over 10 years is enough to seriously move the needle on worldwide inflation?

I mean I can totally see it’s affect on US inflation but I’m skeptical of it having a big impact worldwide.

Straw that broke the camels back. Also that $1.9 trillion over a decade is not how I recall the American Rescue Plan was set up. The vast majority of that was stimulus payments, enhanced unemployment, child tax credit deposits into people bank accounts, small business loans etc. Also a lot of the money allocated to states and municipalities had time limits on and had to be spent by 2025-2026 or be recouped. You may be thinking of the $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Investment & Jobs act that also passed in 2021.

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The EU threw similar amounts at covid over 18-24 months, it all added up globally. Hindsight is 20/20. We can say it was a mistake because of the inflation we had a year later, but having a strong economy where all seem to have an option to participate is also valuable.

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You’re missing an important part here. Biden’s administration is also putting out massive amounts of new regulation. That is reducing, or at least preventing increases, in productivity. That is also adding to inflation pressures and in a much longer term fashion that is harder to undo.

Don’t get me wrong. The 3rd stimulus package and the laughably named Inflation Reduction Act made this worse also. But what can you expect from the same people who brought you the slowest recovery from a recession in US economic history?

I was under the impression that wage gains were the underlying cause in the drop in productivity.

It’s these lazy millennials “working” from home instead of being super productive in offices like they belong!


Perhaps you have a few examples of this you can share.

US might even not enter a recession at this rate.

You guys are actually in a really good economic position at this stage of the economic cycle.

Darn it, now you jinxed it. :laughing:

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This is concerning though: Federal Reserve / FOMC Watch - #52 by ArthurItas