For all the talent the Mets have and the money they spent this off season, they sure are making the last playoff spot with the Reds interesting.
The AL seems to be 4 teams playing for 3 spot and Detroit sure has choked away all of their big lead and much of it in the past 10 games.
Not at the top, no…but 3 teams playing for 1 spot is pretty exciting.
The AL has 4 teams playing for 2 spots. The DET/CLE loser will probably be on the outside of the WC but it’s still possible for both to make it if BOS or HOU collapse like DET has recently.
Fangraphs currently has these odds to make playoffs
Boston 90%
Detroit 85%
Houston 66%
Guardians 60%
One of the 4 will be going home. I’m guessing it is which ever of CLE/DET that loses the CLE/DET series.
The NL they give the following
Mets 51%
Reds 42%
Snakes 6%
Only 1 will make it, but only 2 have a real chance.
Equally interesting is that the AL seeding is totally up in the air. No team has clinched first in its division. As you know being the first or second seed is a huge benefit. Jays qualifying for playoffs is small potatoes compared to getting the top seed.
4 teams and 3 spots because of the ALCentral. Either Detroit or Cleveland is in by winning the division.
Also, yeah, there are only 6 games left but, still, it doesn’t take much of a collapse to fall one game (BOS vs CLE) or no games (that is, Hou is currently tied with CLE). Oh, but I guess that depends on the tie breakers, then. Who has those?
OK, I checked. CLE beats HOU in the tie breaker, so effectively, CLE is already a game up on HOU. And with the tiebreaker, CLE is effectively 2 games back of BOS.
CLE is up 2 games in the tiebreaker with DET, but they still have games to play.
Yes but for Boston and Houston, Cleveland and Detroit are guaranteed to lose 3 games between them because of the H2H and one is in as central winner which means the loser is going to fall back in the WC.
Looking at the Probably Starters for the next week… I have no idea how the Mets can be above a 1% playoff probability.
Also worth looking at is the tiebreakers involving the possible top two seeds because of the bye they get.
Jays win the tiebreaker with Yanks, Red Sox, Mariners and Tigers. With the way the Jays have been playing the last week there is a good chance the tiebreaker will be relevant as Yanks have easiest schedule and have a good chance for AL East title. The Mariners are almost a cinch for one of the top two seeds.
Good chance is relative. The Yanks magic number is 9 with 6 to play so even if the Yanks go 6-0 they need some help to catch Toronto. Pretty much if Toronto avoids a sweep against Boston they should be looking good for the AL east.
Detroit has Cleveland and Boston
Boston has Toronto and Detroit
So both teams have 6 games against playoff contenders. That final game of the season could require Detroit to throw Skubal in the final game of the year to try and make the playoffs depending on how their series with Cleveland goes.
Ordinarily I would be relaxed about Jays odds but they only won 1 of their last 5 games and have been playing without their best hitter (Bichette). They will be lucky to split their final six matches and Yanks could go 6-0 playing at home against weaker teams.
Boston throwing out three very good starters against the Jays the next three games and Boston is desperate.
Yeah big game today with Gausman v Gioloto as tomorrow Sherzer v Crochet really favors Boston on paper. Still Yanks need to pick up 2 games over the next 3 days to make the weekend interesting.
I know Chicago is just playing to avoid 100 losses, but last year they were playing to avoid 125 losses and managed to do it.
And they really haven’t looked like a 100 loss team in the 2nd half. I think they’re about 20 games better in the 2nd half than in the first half.
From The Athletic.
MLB’s competition committee approved the introduction of the Automated Ball-Strike system, or ABS, for the 2026 regular season. Every team will begin next year’s games with two challenges of the home plate umpire’s strike zone, and a team will not lose one of its challenges when it gets the challenge right.
They have been better, but not good. .330 before the ASB, .441 since the break. 9-10 in September but they stared out 8-2 and then followed it up with 1-8. Overall their offense is bad being on on the whole 11% worse than league average. They have been exactly average with 100 ERA+ on the pitching side, so they manged to improve from last year despite trading away the guy who is probably finishing 2nd in teh Cy young this year.
Tonight is almost a must win for Jays as Scherzer just doesn’t seem to have it anymore. And TB always gives the Jays a hard time.
Well they did clinch a playoff spot so no game is “must win” for them until the playoff start, but I I do think this is an important game because Max has been pretty terrible in 4 of his past 5 starts. It’s possible the Yankees and Jays are tied after tomorrow. If that does happen, I’ll feel a lot better about the Yankees chances.
tbh, 2 challenges per team is not many. should be a relatively small number since they retain them, but 2 feels light.
the challenge is based on center of the plate only (a 2-dimensional shape) with upper and lower limits based on batter’s listed height and not their “natural stance” as the rule usually states. (precentages of hight frame the top/bottom)
a certain pitch could be correctly called a strike but miss that rectangle bc the stated strike sone is over the whole plate (so a 3-D prism). such a pitch would be overturned on appeal but the overnight processing for umpire evals (if they do it still) would recast it as called correctly.
but more calls made correctly should be ok. i think the article I saw said challenges were like 54% correct.
It’s interesting. Are their eyes good enough that they can take advantage of the differences between the umps and automated system? So 2D effectively shrinks the strike zone and, in particular, can hurt good pitches with a lot of movement? Using listed height will call more high strikes?
Oh my
White Sox let me down. Resigned now to the Yanks winning the division with the resulting benefits. Jays have lost their mojo in the past week.