2025 (6?) Playoff Point Spread/Survivor Pool

Pick each game against the spread.
You can add (or subtract) integer points to the posted spread.
If you lose one pick you are out.
The winner is the person who lasts the longest, and if there are multiple people who last to the same level, the winner is the one who has the lowest total point total.
(Note, if the last people go out on the same playoff round (ie championship weekend) they are considered to go out at the same time, even if they go out in different games.)

LAR (-10.5) @ CAR

GB (+0.5) @ CHI

BUF (-1.5) @ JAX

SF (+4.5) @ PHI

LAC (+3.5) @ NE

HOU (-3.5) @ PIT

EDIT clarification to rules for the remainer of the pool -

The winner is the person who gets every game right through the super bowl with the lowest moved total.

In the event that all remaining participants are eliminated in a given round -

1 - each game sequentially by kickoff will be used so the player that last the longest shall be declared the winner. That is if all but one player is eliminated by the first 3 games of the divisional round and the last player loses the final game of the divisional round (the Sunday Night game) that player shall be declared the winner.

2 - If all remaining players are eliminated in the same game, then points for that week on adjusted line total will be recalculated through the game before all players were eliminated (the games where the final remaining participants had survived) to determine a winner on points.

To clarify how one should post their pick . . .

Suppose I wrote “LAR (-10.5) @ CAR -2 pts” . . . this is me saying LAR (-12.5)? I get a -2 to my tally for the final tie breaker?

And for those who may not deal with these sorts of spreads often, I assume that LAR (-12.5) means that LAR has to win by at least 13 points for me to win this “bet” . . . correct?

Furthermore, GB (+0.5) is essentially no different than GB (-0.5) since this is the playoffs and ties are not in play?

Best way would be like this

LA +3.5 (+14) - this would be Rams getting 3.5 moving spread 14 point in your favor.

CAR +7.5 (-3) - this would be Caroline getting 7.5 moving spread 3 points against you.

I yes you are correct that there are no ties in the playoffs, but I just grabbed the spreads from some site and posted and will continue to post lines in 0.5 increments to avoid the question of pushes.

apologies to @Ezekial_Cumberland if you were planning on running this, I grabbed an old one with the search function.

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LAR -6.5: 4 pts
CHI -1.5: -1 pts
JAX +3.5: 2 pts
PHI -2.5: 2 pts
LAC +0.5: -3 pts
HOU -2.5: 1 pt

Total: 5 points

I think this works.

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LAR (-10.5) @ CAR - Car (+14.5) (4pts)

GB (+0.5) @ CHI - GB (+3.5) (3 pts)

BUF (-1.5) @ JAX - Jax (+7.5) (6 pts)

SF (+4.5) @ PHI - SF (+7.5) (3 pts)

LAC (+3.5) @ NE - NE (-.5) (3 pts)

HOU (-3.5) @ PIT - Hou (+3.5) (7 pts)

26 pts

Totally forgot about this one!

always confused the hell out of me

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LAR -6.5 (4 points)

CHI +3.5 (4)

BUF +3.5 (5)

PHI +3.5 (8)

NE +3.5 (7)

HOU +3.5 (7)

35 points

Last iteration of this pool looks like 2021 w ldancer winning in first week.

77 total

So I’m interpreting things correctly . . .

LA +3.5 (+4) is the equivalent of LA +7.5

CAR +7.5 (-3) == of CAR +4.5

and

LA -1.5 (+4) == LA +3.5

CAR -7.5 (-3) == CAR -10.5

Not exactly.

Here’s a picture. Let’s say you want to pick the Rams, and you want to make it more likely you win.

image

You spent fourteen points to change 14 blue boxes to yellow boxes, meaning the Rams now win if they win or lose by 3 or less, instead of only winning if they win by 11 or more. (just realized there is technically a 0 box that I forgot — pretend it is there.

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LAR -6.5 (4)

GB +7.5 (7)

JAX +7.5 (6)

SF +10.5 (6)

NE -0.5 (3)

HOU -2.5 (1)

27 points

This is one where people try to get too cute and minimize the points, not realizing that you have to win every game to move on! I’m probably guilty of that myself every time we’ve played, and may be again this year, even with 35 points used!

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I do the same thing I do on the strikes game … I’ll take some risks early. If I get all 6 right I have a huge advantage with 7 games left. If I don’t I only spent 1 week playing.

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If LA +3.5 is the Vegas line . . . which I’m interpreting as “LA is expected to lose by at least 4 points” so taking this bet means that I win if LA wins or loses by 3 or fewer points . . . I think your labels of the two lines are reversed I see that you’re using YankeeTripper’s OP as the starting point; so your picture is correct!.

And it appears that LA +3.5 would almost be the equivalent of “CAR -3.5” except that in this case, I win only if CAR wins by at least 4 points.

What I’m trying to wrap my head around is being clear on how the “point shift” should work.

LA +3.5 (+14) == LA +17.5 (I win unless LA get massacred)
LA +3.5 (-3) == LA +0.5 (I win only if LA wins)

CAR -3.5 (+14) == CAR +10.5 (I win only if CAR wins or loses by 11 or fewer points)
CAR -3.5 (-3) == CAR -6.5 (I win only if CAR wins by at least 7 points)

Is this correct?

To be clear, LA - 10.5 is the Vegas line – that’s what you are moving off of.

LA + 3.5 and CAR -3.5 are the exact same line. CAR would have to win by 4 or more to win the bet.

All your examples look right.

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LAR -13.5 : -3 pts

CHI -2.5 : -2 pts

JAX -0.5 : -2 pts

PHI -5.5 : -1 pts

NE -6.5 : -3 pts

HOU -3.5 : -0 pts

Net -11 points

I invented this game a while back. Inspired by Ultimate Anyone?’s fantasy survivor game and wanting to come up with something novel. I think I ran it for a year or two before I didn’t want to spend the time. Glad to see it lives on. I guess I should play.