Interesting article on a scenario where Georgia and Texas both end up with only one loss but neither makes the SEC Championship game.
I also read something that said the same type thing could happen in the Big 12, with 4 teams finishing with only 1 loss in league play and KSU and Colorado ending up in the championship game over ISU and BYU.
Seeing headlines, need to read some of the stories but it seems that the new coach to player communications in College Football isnāt using encrypted communications and some teams might have gone from stealing signs to just listening to their opponents.
If ya aināt cheatinā, ya aināt tryinā!
Sagarin uses a predictive model.
Imbedded in the data is that home field is a 3 point advantage.
Oregon beat OSU by 1 at home.
On a nuetral field, OSU beats Oregon by 2.
At the horseshoe, OSU wins by 5.
I donāt see ranking OSU higher as āno predictive valueā
So is it possible that 2 G5 conference champions get into the playoffs and that one of them manages to get a bye?
Just watched Harvard beat Dartmouth (from yesterday). Pretty exciting game, the Crimson needed two late touchdowns in the comeback win and Dartmouth had a hail Mary play at the end that was close but failed. The result leads to a three-way tie between Harvard, Columbia and Dartmouth in the Ivy League title chase. Harvard 31-27 Dartmouth (Nov 2, 2024) Game Recap - ESPN
Do you mean 2 NON-G5 conference champions?
Is it possible? Yes.
How likely is it? About as likely as flipping a fair coin and it landing on its edge.
In another year, it might be a more possible. It would require two teams from lower rated conferences simultaneously breaking into the top 10 and one of the power 4 (I am relegating the defacto-defunct Pac10 in this instance) conferences being so balanced that the conference winner has 2 or maybe 3 losses.
For those two teams to break into the top 10, they would need very impressive non-conference wins over power conference schools, since beating the snot out of every team in their non-power conferences is not likely to propel them into the top 10 alone. (There is hope, as for example Gonzaga accomplishes this in basketball quite often)
So is it possible? I think so. But a lot of things would have to happen perfectly for it to happen, which makes it quite unlikely.
After Week 10:
Three Big 10 (four in the top 11)
Three SEC (four in the top 11)
One ACC (one in top 11)
One Big 12 (one in the top 11)
One ND, now at #10 and a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way.
Highest not Power 4 team/champion (BSU at the moment)
Two other highest-ranked Power 4 teams, which are right now an SEC and Big10 team.
We can start talking rest-of-season, the big opponents:
Ore: no one.
UGA: Ole Miss and Tenn.
tOSU: IU
Da-YU: no one
UT: A&M, finally
PSU: no one
UTenn: UGA
IU: tOSU
BYU: no one
ND: USMA
'bama: LSU
BSU: no one
Those are just the ranked opponents. Sure, 'bama-OU will be a big-name game, but should not be difficult for 'bama. The score bug will be all red, though.
I mean 2 Group of 5 (Non-P4) conference champs.
Looking at this year what happens if the ACC championship is between an undefeated Miami and a 2 loss unranked Clemson and Clemson wins. And the Big 12 championship is between an undefeated BYU and a 2 loss 20 something ranked Colorado and Colorado wins.
And Boise is in the to 10 and wins the MWC and Army is ranked better than 15 and wins the AAC?
Then you would have 2 G5+ champions ranked higher than 2 P4 champions so the SEC and B1G would get 2 of the bye and AAC and MWC would probably get the other 2 and only one of the BIG 12 and ACC champs would get in. And there would be a decent chance that Miami or BYU would drop out of the top 10 and get left out of it all together so there would be a possibility that a P4 conference could be shut out of the first expanded CFP.
Iām sure the ranking committee would manage to get at least one team from every P4 conference by the rankings, probably by dropping (or more likely keeping) Army out of a higher rank and/or keeping BSU down as well. That first ranking tomorrow night will be very telling.
I now get the question much better.
I still think it is not likely. You canāt focus on the rankings at this moment. Any 2 loss P4 team that wins their conference championship will immediately vault upward in the rankings and displace any G5 pretender.
Now, officially, the rankings will not be the AP Poll nor the coaches (USATODAY) poll, they will be ranked by an NCAA committee. And you can bet that such a committee will take license to select the teams it prefers, which is to say which teams will make the system most profitable. The country would rather see a 4th place SEC team against a 3rd place B10 team that gets great ratings than a G5 team against anybody. And Boise Stateās strength of schedule was not strong enough to make it a top 10 team even if it wins out.
I might wonder about Army though. I think Army could be an unusual draw vs anyone, even if they end up getting blown out.
Gotta beat ND, though.
Saw a post of BNK on Fox analystās predictions for the first CFP poll and Matt Leinartās had Oregon #1 with a bye, Georgia #2 with a bye, Ohio State #3 with a bye and Miami #4 with a bye.
I commented that his isnāt even possible and it has now been changed and my comment is gone.
Now he has Oregon #1 with a bye, Georgia #2 with a bye, Miami #3 with a bye and BYU #4 with a bye.
Chris Fallica (the Bear) that 1-3 the same but is putting Boise State #4 with a bye. I guess he expects BYU to not win the Big 12 and for the Big 12 champion to be ranked lower than BSU. BTW, he has Iowa State as the only Big 12 team in at #12. Obviously he is looking at year end rankings and not today rankings.
for the big poll results tonight
the orange guy won
I didnāt think Syracuse was very good this year.
Hereās a bunny with a pancake on his headā¦
I should have made clear the red font of sarcasm. There was really no need to bring his picture into a sports thread. Everyone knew what you meant and you just kinda ruined a thread.
Though the committee kinda ruined the poll if you ask me. They really should have had BYU higher than 9. They are undefeated and have one of the hardest rated schedules according to ESPNās rankings.
New America!
People in power shall NOT be questioned!!
And now, back to your regularly-scheduled College Football Discussionā¦
Better now?