2023 NFL Football thread

Ok, congrats, Chiefs. Good comeback, shitty officiating, 4 hours of drudgery.

What about 2024? Draft is two months away. Let’s get posting!!

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It would be funny if nobody really wanted to trade up all that much and forced the Bears to use their pick.

Come on Panthers, you got this!

Why did we skip 2023?

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Oops. Fixed.

let’s start w a certainty - Carr is getting released by the raiders before the feb 15th deadline. no one will trade for him and give up value when doing so puts his slaray at 33M/42M/42M for the next 3 years. the acquiring team would have to think they can get him for less than that, right?

trade picks/players for him and lock in 3 yrs, 110M w 40M guaranteed vs free agent signing where they get to structure it out more to their liking?

I read Carr has indicated he will not waive his no trade clause requiring the Raiders to release him and get nothing back. Though, I think you are probably right that no one was going to trade for him anyway. They can simply wait and negotiate a much lower contract without much guaranteed.

Carr at 3 years/117 is not that far off.

Bears staying at 1 would be good thing for them. Get a solid D-lineman. They can get other things with FA.

Wouldn’t be a Sports Thread right after the prior season is over without this:

i think a team signing carr will spread it out over more years than 3. i don’t see the average being above $35M. i think he’ll get some solid guarantee out of it, but he needs to prove there’s more in the tank IMO. there might be some incentives that promote more guarantees or bonuses.

ideally, for the bears, they trade back a few spots and pick up more assets to use. staying isn’t the worst either

There are desperate teams with cap space. QBs will get paid. At this stage, Geno Smith may get 3/105-120.

I imagine Carr, Geno, Garappolo, and perhaps even Mayfield may get paid this offseason. There are lots of teams looking for QB help, and only so many FA and anticipated 1st round drafted QBs to go around.

Geno will definitely get at least 2/74-80 and maybe 3/120 with $70M guaranteed. He does not have the track record of Carr. Baker has a track record that is not great. He should consider taking a one year deal to be a backup in Dal, KC or Baltimore for 6-7. Jimmy wins but can’t stay healthy. He could get something like 3/110-120 or 4/140…

Predictions: Geno resigns with Seattle, Carr goes to Saints, Jimmy to NEP, Baker to KC.

On Carr? I’d be a bit surprised if his annual value is below $35M. He’s clearly the best FA QB on the market and is only 31. I mean the Voodoo they work with signing bonus and base salary can be a nightmare to figure out but I’d guess he’s getting paid.

i think carr had a crap year when he had adams and a great RB. that kind of trend is scary the year after wilson imploded. he won’t get cousins money IMO. the signing team will make sure they have affordable outs, so maybe some sort of bonuses that get earned w yr 1 performance (he will have a lot of NLTBE incentives bc the year was terrible).

that said it just takes on team. if he goes to the saints, then it leans my way I think. his cap hit won’t be under $7M (cheap, I know) but they are currently…$60M OVER the cap. will be real work to get them down under enough to sign him, and he’d have to realize they will be struggling w the cap for another period of time. so if he is smart…not the saints.

Teams that need a QB:

Teams that probably need a QB:
Saints: Jameis is under contract, but I think they want an upgrade
Tampa: I doubt they are going solely with Trask. Will at least look for a veteran backup, but also likely to look for an upgrade
Arizona: Murray may miss a significant part of season, so they probably want an experienced placeholder
Seattle: I think they re-sign Geno, but they need another. Likely to consider either a top draft QB or take a developmental guy a bit later to sit behind Geno. They could re-sign Lock to be the developmental guy, but I think they can probably do better.
Atlanta: I think they grab a low end veteran guy to backup Ridder, but they could go for an upgrade
Titans: Tannehill is getting a bit long in the tooth. He also has a disproportionate cap hit of $38.6M. They may look to upgrade or draft a successor.

I put BAL in their own category. I believe they franchise tag and keep Lamar, but they could trade him if someone is willing to provide a haul of picks.

Did I miss anyone?

Of the above teams, here is where they draft: HOU 2, AZ 3, IND 4, SEA 5, LV 7, ATL 8, CAR 9, TEN 11, HOU 12, NYJ 13, WAS 16, TAM 19, SEA 20, NO 29

HOU, IND, LV, CAR, and TEN will all be kicking tires on top QB prospects. Most rankings only have Stroud and Young as prospects worthy of a top 10 pick, with Levis sneaking in to the top 10 on a few but usually ranked later in the first. Unless they trade up, most of these QB needy teams will not get a top prospect.

We have a ton of QB needy teams, only a few hot QB draft prospects, and only a few quality free agents. For that reason I think even mediocre veterans will likely get paid due to position scarcity. Carr and Jimmy G will get nice deals, and Geno probably will too. While Mayfield has a spotty history, his play with LAR late in the season may still get him a deal. I’d be surprised if he takes a low salary backup deal, mostly because I think he can probably get another shot at starting with a decent salary. He’s not getting anything close to what the 1st 3 guys get, and may not get much in terms of guarantees though.

As a Falcons fan, I hope the Saints do sign Carr given their cap situation. They’ll have to make cuts elsewhere. While I think Carr is a solid QB and the best FA available, he’s not spectacular and I think the Saints will lose other talent that will make them worse.


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Denver is stuck this year. I think they are rolling with Russell due to his dead cap $ and hoping Sean Payton can rehabilitate him.

Still, they need a QB.

And, I was jesting.

i agree with the review of who has QB needs. I agree with the overall position scarcity. and inflation. and bad teams doing dumb things. all of that leads to an overpay. that said, i don’t see the deal getting above “cousins” money. if the max total is above that threshold, then I believe it will be because there are escalators and incentives that have to be met to push it above there. he stunk in 2022 and that tends to have impact.

I still think he will get paid. just not more than $35M a year on avg