Welcome to the 2022 GoActuary Kirk Cousins Stinks NFL Full Season Pick’em Contest.
This game was started in 2009 by @Jables (RIP), and we now head into the 13th season of it.
With the demise of the AO, I only have the first and last pages of most seasons which you may view here:
2015 AO NFL Full Season Pick’em Contest - Arby’s Quest for Numero Three-o - Page 1
2015 AO NFL Full Season Pick’em Contest - Arby’s Quest for Numero Three-o - Page with Final Standings…won by @TheArbitrary
YetAnother 2017 AO NFL Full Season Pick’em Contest - Now With Special Sauce - Page 1
YetAnother 2017 AO NFL Full Season Pick’em Contest - Now With Special Sauce - Page with Final Standings…won by @Funemployed
Way Too Early 2018 SpamLite NFL Full Season Pick’em Contest - w/25% Less Brown Losses - Page 1
Way Too Early 2018 SpamLite NFL Full Season Pick’em Contest - w/25% Less Brown Losses - Page with Final Standings…won by @PatientZombie
2019 Jet Setter NFL Full Season Pick’em Contest-Patience Finally Pays Off - Page 1
2019 Jet Setter NFL Full Season Pick’em Contest-Patience Finally Pays Off - Page with Final Standings…won by @Funemployed.
2020 Rainbows in the Endzone NFL Full Season Pick’em Contest-Tying Arbitrary Records - Page 1
2020 Rainbows in the Endzone NFL Full Season Pick’em Contest-Tying Arbitrary Records - Last Page with Posts
2020 Rainbows in the Endzone NFL Full Season Pick’em Contest-Tying Arbitrary Records now with GoActuary…won by @Jahiegel
2021 GoActuary Jahiegel Memorial NFL Full Season Pick’em Contest…won by Carrie’s Carebears
Now it’s time to start it up again for the 2022 season.
The basic concept is to have a pick’em contest, where all the picks are made before the start of the season, as opposed to a regular week-by-week pick’em league. All of the bets are straight up wins and losses - nothing involving the spread or any of that.
The second post of this thread will have the entire 2021 NFL schedule in it, week-by-week. All you need to do to enter is quote that post and let me know who you think will win each of the (2^4)x17 games in the season. You can either delete the teams you think will lose from each matchup or retype (after the semicolon) the team you think will win. Whoever has the best predictions at the end of the season wins. After each week’s games are over, I’ll make a post showing everyone’s weekly and year-to-date results.
ALTERNATIVE METHOD OF ENTRY: Send an email to actuary1695814 [at] gmail. I will respond with an excel spreadsheet that you can fill out. Send that back to me and you’ll be entered.
Here are some other details that you might find interesting:
Overall Winner Tiebreaker: In the case of an overall tie the winner will be whomever first submitted their picks.
Weekly Awards: In addition, there will be awards for the weekly winner(s).
- Whichever player(s) compile(s) the best record in a given week will be given a chance to improve their standing in the game.
- When two or more players tie for the best weekly record ALL of those players will receive the “Change One Future Pick” award, commonly referred to as a “COFP”.
- The earliest entrant will also receive the (usually) non-negative award as dictated by the schedule.
NEW AWARD FOR THE WEEKLY LOSERS THIS YEAR…introducing, VA’s Lion’s Share Award.
Two things to note about this award:
- You must be the sole last place loser for that week. If there are two or more of you, no COFP for you!
- The COFP must be used in the following week.
Award Declaration Deadlines: A “Change One Future Pick” award may be held until the moment before the last week’s kickoff, but, of course, must be declared before the kickoff of the game it affects. Whereas, the non-negative awards must be declared before kickoff of the next week.
Default Option: For all of the non-negative awards, I will assign a default option that you can overrule by simply declaring how you would like to use the award.
Here’s a full explanation of the awards (which are up for discussion & subject to change until the season starts…and sometimes at my whim)…
Change one future pick: Pretty self-explanatory. Change one of your future picks. Use for any week (including Week 1). Declare before the kickoff of the game it affects. Expires at the end of the season.
more info on the COFP award
A COFP, once declared, should not be changed.
Of course, if you have a COFP left over, you could use that to undo your original COFP.
As with many GoA contests, we run on the honor system (aka the honour system). If you change your mind within two minutes of posting, it’s probably safe and, imo, NOT-UNsportsmanlike to undo your post. If you change your mind within two hours and the intern hasn’t noted your declaration, you can probably get away with it and still have a clear conscience. If you change your mind within two days, well, you’d better have a long, hard look at your life choices and why this game is so important to you.
Further, If, by chance, you’re taking your strategery to a new level for this contest and would prefer that your COFP choices be kept secret, you may PM or email (actuary1695814 [at] gmail) them to me. I will store them in a lockbox and not announce them until the weekly recap. This could prevent another player from mimicking your changes so as to prevent you from making a move on them standings-wise.
You’re Gonna’ Like the Pick You Made…I Guarantee It: This will allow the winner of this award to guarantee one matchup from week 18 as a win.
Lovable Losers: This will allow the winner of this award to guarantee one win from any week for the team they picked to win the least. (If you picked a team to go 0-17 then you’ll need to pick for the next least-winning team.)
Jables’ Home Field Advantage: Jables said that home field is worth roughly 3 points in determining the gambling lines. Winning this award allows you (and only you) to add 3 points to the scores of all the road teams (that you chose to win) for a given week for your picks only. As a result, it could change some of your losses to ties or even wins for you. For those players who went extra heavy on the home teams, I will allow this award to be used to add 1 point to the scores of all the home teams instead (possibly changing a tie to a win, or a loss to a tie).
Random Poster’s Lucky 7: If you win this award you will have seven points to distribute to improve the scores of your chosen teams. You may spread it among as many teams & weeks as you desire. Only whole-points may be used. (E.g., you chose team A to beat team B, team C to beat team D, team E to beat team F, and team G to beat team H. You added 3 points to team A and 2 points to team C and 1 point to team E and 1 point to team G. Team A loses 23-21, team C loses 23-20, team E loses 23-22, and team G wins 42-0. In your case team A would turn out to be a win, team C is still a loss, team E turns out to be a tie, and you wasted points on team G since it was a win regardless.)
Numbers’ Nudge: This is an enhanced version of the RPL7 award. The winner of this award will have n points to distribute in the same way as the RPL7 award. n is determined by the number of wins correctly predicted in the week this award is won. The results of this award affect only the award winner’s results.
Choose Your Own Adventure Award: If you win this award you get to choose one award from a selection of two non-negative awards and two higher-variance, possibly-negative awards:
- Jables’ Home Field Advantage
- Random Poster’s Lucky 7
- The Arbitrary Award - If you use this award you may flip your pick for all non-Divisional games for one team for the rest of the season.
- The Arbitrary’s Lucky 7 Award - If you use this award you will flip your picks for exactly seven games in a week of your choosing.
Nice Little Lead You Got There…It Would Be A Shame If Something Were To [ahem] Happen To It: If you win this award you’ll be able to insure that all of the teams you picked for the week you declare do not blow a seven or more point lead that they had at the end of the 3rd quarter.
AStudent’s GroupThink: No thinking necessary - if you win this award, your record for Week 18 will be the better of Your Picks or that of the Consensus.
Last Week Winner: The winner of week 18 automatically has a week 18 loss turned into a win. (If the winner has a perfect week, then there is, in effect, no award since there is no loss to be turned into a win.)
Perfect Weekly Record: If you should manage a perfect weekly record, you will receive DOUBLE the scheduled weekly award (this wouldn’t apply to week 17 nor 18) and you’ll get that week named after you in perpetuity.
Week 1: You’re Gonna’ Like the Pick You Made…I Guarantee It
Week 2: You’re Gonna’ Like the Pick You Made…I Guarantee It
The Arbitrary’s Week 3: Lovable Losers
Week 4: Lovable Losers
Week 5: Lovable Losers
Week 6: Jables’ Home Field Advantage
Week 7: Jables’ Home Field Advantage
Week 8: Choose Your Own Adventure Award
Week 9: Choose Your Own Adventure Award
Week 10: Choose Your Own Adventure Award
Week 11: Random Poster’s Lucky 7
Week 12: Random Poster’s Lucky 7
Week 13: Numbers’ Nudge
Week 14: Numbers’ Nudge
Week 15: Nice Little Lead You Got There…It Would Be A Shame If Something Were To [ahem] Happen To It
Week 16: Nice Little Lead You Got There…It Would Be A Shame If Something Were To [ahem] Happen To It
Week 17: AStudent’s GroupThink
Week 18: Last Week Winner
AWARDS FOR EARLY ENTRIES:
Early entrants will receive a number of Change one future pick awards depending on how early your selections are made. The number of awards received will be based on a schedule:
Submit before [event, date & time] & receive n COFP awards.
|Event||Date & Time||n|
|Juneteenth National Independence Day||06/19/2022 11:59 PM ET||5|
|United States Independence Day||07/04/2022 11:59 PM ET||3|
|Hall of Fame Game||08/04/2022 08:00 PM ET||1|
After submitting your picks, if you want to make any changes to them you are free to do so. However, you must make a new post. If you edit your old post, I won’t see it, and your change will not be recognized. Obviously, making a new post will result in a new time stamp on your entry sending you to the back of the line, possibly losing your early-entrant-COFP awards, and, even worse, opens you to mockery & ridicule. You also have the option of using any of your early-entrant-COFP awards, should you have any. This will maintain your place in line, and any other early-entrant-COFP awards that you haven’t used, but, most of all, you are still subject to mockery & ridicule.
The season starts with Cowboys @ Buccaneers at 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, September 8, so I’ll need all entries in by then. That gives you plenty of time to submit your predictions. However, I’ll allow entries up until the start of the Sunday games on Sept 12th, but you’ll be given a loss for the Cowboys @ Buccaneers season-opening game.
What’s in it for you? The winner will receive the adulation of many, a permanent seat in the GoA NFL Full Season Pick 'Em Contest Hall of Fame, & the naming rights for the " [fitb] 2023 [fitb] GoActuary [fitb] NFL [fitb] *Full Season Pick’em Contest [fitb]".
Finally, please keep in mind, mistakes and other unforeseen circumstances are going to happen. When they do, we’ll deal with them and move on. Your patience and understanding, especially with my intern (who is prone to the most egregious of errors), are necessary conditions of making this whole thing go. The participants of the GoA NFL Full Season Pick’em Contests have always been known for their good sportsmanship, jovial banter, and above average looks. Let’s continue that tradition.