Oh yeah, we got the full tower of grandparents with an aunt/uncle aggregate built in if need be.
Man, that drop down coverage is nice
I would try to get it done before.
How likely does this overall reserve MSE calculation from the Mack 1994 paper seem? This calculation is ridiculous and isnāt even explained/shown in the source text. It has never been tested before either to my knowledge. It seems extremely difficult to learn with extremely low ROI.
Of course by saying this, the exam committee is probably going to ask it now so i better learn itā¦
See my other thread below. Iāve updated my take on the calculation, but not sure if itās right.
I think there is a cookbook problem that has part of it as a question.
I would look at Excel examples, makes it easier to understand.
I donāt think the overall reserve MSE calculation is too likely since itās so complicated. Itās probably a low ROI calculation to learn/memorize.
However, I think the concept that the overall Reserve MSE is greater than the sum of the individual accident year Reserve MSEs is important to know. The reason is that the same LDFs are used across AYs, so the loss reserve estimates by AY are positively correlated. The reserve estimates are not independent between accident years.
As act_123 mentioned, itās helpful to see Excel examples. I have a Mack (1994) Excel workbook posted that shows the full MSE calculation both for the Mack (1994) 10-year triangle and a smaller 4-year triangle. Itās located here if youād find that helpful:
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Thank you Steve!
Thank you Steve for the clarification. I see where I got it wrong now.
Finally started.
Mack2000 analysis: āHere do some algebraā. Ok thx.
eta: Is there anything in here that wasnāt actually covered on exam 5 somewhere?
For those that are using Casual Fellow, would you say the videos are worth it?
I assume the difference between the CF āOnline Seminarā and āStudy Guideā is just the seminar has videos?
Not worth it. The Tia videos are better. The cf manual is better though
Where is everyoneās progress at now? No matter how many times I go through some of these papers (Taylor, Brehm, and many others), I donāt think Iām ever going to feel prepared to handle the exam questions on them.
I am really curious what they will include now theyāve update the CBT FAQ, I wonder how familiar you need to be with Linest, and MMULT & MInveserā¦ I still think doing a hat matrix adjustment seems a bit unfair under exam conditionsā¦ but I could be wrong on this.
Yuck. Earliest date I could get was May 2. Part of me says bail now and donāt waste my time.
I doubt that knowing how to use MMULT/MINVERSE and some of the more complicated Excel functions is expected since theyāre not covered in the syllabus papers.
However, knowing how to use some of those could potentially save a lot of time on a problem or two.
Thanks Steve, that make sense. Hopefully they are not going all crazy with the formulasā¦ (again, the Hat Matrix being my biggest fear. Though I probably would just take the hit if they ask in the exam).
I hope the question writer/someone at CAS tests how long it would take to answer a question under Pearson Vue environmentā¦ I find a few of the questions are a pain to do in Pearson Vue environment (like the Venter Factors)
I find the whole CBT thing ironic since itās suppose to āmimic real life work environmentā. However, the exam excel interface can only be described as mimicking either Excel 3.0 from back in the 90ās. Itās really a tortureā¦ I find myself deliberately not using f4 at work since I worry that it would negatively impact my exam performance. But I digressā¦
F4 and the horrible mouse really were the worst
I wonder if you can petition to bring your own mouse.
This thread is so quiet. Can people share their progress and what they are currently focusing on? Which problems are people working right now?
Iām currently reviewing Brehm. I still have no idea how to be prepare for this since there is so only so much space in my head, I canāt memorize it all.
You should start by clearing out useless facts in your head to make room, like wifeās birthday, anniversary day, kids birthday and upcoming appointment time etc. 
, then maybe what happened yesterday, last week, last year etcā¦
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I know a ton on useless info from exam 6. I still havenāt deleted that from memory