2021 GoActuary Jahiegel Memorial NFL Full Season Pick’em Contest

[twig93]

@A_Student

I’m perplexed on how Consensus did so bad.

I totally understand how I did so bad.

I decided to look into this because I obviously love to nerd out about sports. My analysis is incomplete, but the first thing to jump out at me was this:

@1695814

Week 1;Chargers@Washington;Washington;10;10

Now at the risk of stating the obvious… it seems a little disingenuous to call that a consensus pick for Washington.

I would argue that the consensus called for a tie. As such the consensus is 6-9-1 which is a little better than 6-10.

I will update if I notice anything else that seems worthy of pointing out.

[twig93]

I should add that I am fully supportive of a rule precluding US from calling ties as that would just overwhelm the poor intern.

But when there are an even number of players and we are evenly split on a game then it seems like considerations ought to be made in the consensus standings.

[Vorian_Atreides]

I don’t think so; since we’re not allowed to pick a tie; so I don’t think that “consensus” should be allowed to pick, either (especially if it’s a “competing” entry).

Defaulting to the home team seems like a reasonable tie breaker.

[twig93]

Huh? How is consensus a competing entry? I thought it was informational only.

Like if the standings were

Vorian_Atreides
zConsensus
Mountainhawk

You’d be of the opinion that MH is in 3rd place?

I’d say she is in second.

[1695814]

@twig93

it seems a little disingenuous to call that a consensus pick for Washington.

Ties go in favor of the home team. zAllHomeTeam’s picks were not otherwise used in the analysis.

[1695814]

@twig93

I would argue that the consensus called for a tie.

There’s no crying in baseball.
There are no ties in the consensus picks.
Like my heart for every girl I had a crush on during high school, ties must be broken.

[1695814]

@Vorian_Atreides

Defaulting to the home team seems like a reasonable tie breaker.

This is a smart guy right here.

[twig93]

@1695814

There’s no crying in baseball.

Since this is football…

Just kidding! But it is one (of several) factors in why the consensus did so badly this week.

[Vorian_Atreides]

I’d also point out that if the “consensus” was allowed to have ties (while we didn’t), there’d be near zero chance of anyone correlating perfectly with “consensus”.

Also, there’s a reason why I put quotes on “competing” in my prior post. That entry just isn’t eligible for prizes (so the next player in line gets to claim it).

[1695814]

@twig93

How is consensus a competing entry? I thought it was informational only.

Simul eustis et pecatur. It is both an entry and informational-only.

Even if zConsensus leads the standings, it won’t win the game.
OTOH, it’s taking up the space of that place so it’s not inconceivable to assign it that number for finishing…and hand the trophy to someone with a soul.

[twig93]

@Vorian_Atreides

I’d also point out that if the “consensus” was allowed to have ties (while we didn’t), there’d be near zero chance of anyone correlating perfectly with “consensus”.

I’m ok with that.

In fact if someone correlated perfectly with the consensus and there was a tie in the consensus pre-tie-breaker, then I would argue that this player didn’t correlate perfectly with the consensus.

But if we’re picking 272 games now… the chances of perfect correlation are basically nil anyway.

TLDR: that’s a feature, not a bug. Plus it’ll never happen.

[Vorian_Atreides]

And it shouldn’t be any surprise that if both MH and I are competing for that top spot, high probability that Consensus will be doing poorly.

[Vorian_Atreides]

@1695814

Your award for your prescience is the You’re Gonna’ Like the Pick You Made…I Guarantee It award: you may guarantee one matchup from Week 18 as a win.

I will exercise this gift to guarantee the 49er’s win over the Rams in Week 17 18

[Vorian_Atreides]

I will also use 1 COFP to have the Giants win over the WFT in Week 2.

I believe that should leave me with 5 COFP to exercise.

[1695814]

Noted.

[A_Student]

[quote="1695814, post:191, topic:]
There’s no crying in baseball.
There are no ties in the consensus picks.
Like my heart for every girl I had a crush on during high school, ties must be broken.
[/quote]

We still think you are an ok person, and an excellent mod.

[1695814]

Noted

@Vorian_Atreides

I believe that should leave me with 5 COFP to exercise.

Yes, and I think your COFP have gained a little of the COVID-19…you should exercise them…after you speak with your doctor before starting a new exercise program.

[1695814]

Here is a STD (um, Season to date) Awards Summary:

Look inside to see what Awards await you won't believe #50!

AWARDS SUMMARY

Wk	Award	Winner	Wk applied to & How used
PS	Change One Future Pick	UltimateAnyone
	Change One Future Pick	UltimateAnyone
	Change One Future Pick	UltimateAnyone
	Change One Future Pick	UltimateAnyone
	Change One Future Pick	UltimateAnyone
	Change One Future Pick	Mountainhawk	Wk 1 Change Saints to Packers
	Change One Future Pick	Mountainhawk
	Change One Future Pick	Mountainhawk
	Change One Future Pick	Mountainhawk
	Change One Future Pick	Mountainhawk
	Change One Future Pick	Ezekial_Cumberland
	Change One Future Pick	Ezekial_Cumberland
	Change One Future Pick	Ezekial_Cumberland
	Change One Future Pick	Ezekial_Cumberland
	Change One Future Pick	Ezekial_Cumberland
	Change One Future Pick	Vorian_Atreides	Wk 2 Change Washington to Giants
	Change One Future Pick	Vorian_Atreides
	Change One Future Pick	Vorian_Atreides
	Change One Future Pick	Vorian_Atreides
	Change One Future Pick	Vorian_Atreides
	Change One Future Pick	OutdoormanNowActuary
	Change One Future Pick	OutdoormanNowActuary
	Change One Future Pick	OutdoormanNowActuary
	Change One Future Pick	OutdoormanNowActuary
	Change One Future Pick	OutdoormanNowActuary
	Change One Future Pick	IPD
	Change One Future Pick	IPD
	Change One Future Pick	IPD
	Change One Future Pick	IPD
	Change One Future Pick	IPD
	Change One Future Pick	PatientZombie
	Change One Future Pick	PatientZombie
	Change One Future Pick	PatientZombie
	Change One Future Pick	PatientZombie
	Change One Future Pick	PatientZombie
	Change One Future Pick	Grizz	Wk 1 Change Saints to Packers
	Change One Future Pick	Grizz
	Change One Future Pick	Grizz
	Change One Future Pick	Grizz
	Change One Future Pick	Grizz
	Change One Future Pick	Funemployed
	Change One Future Pick	Funemployed
	Change One Future Pick	Funemployed
	Change One Future Pick	Funemployed
	Change One Future Pick	Funemployed
	Change One Future Pick	twig93
	Change One Future Pick	TheArbitrary
1	I Guarantee It	Vorian_Atreides	Wk 18 Guarantee 49ers over Rams
	Change One Future Pick	Vorian_Atreides

[UltimateAnyone]

@1695814

If the season ended today, UltimateAnyone would be the winner.

Well, it was fun while it lasted… now we’re back to business as usual!

[1695814]

I don’t normally post news from around the league, but, every now and then, I’ll stick something in here. Don’t expect a ticker and, further, expect what I do post to be biased for NFC North teams (esp GB & MN)

Courtesy of Mr Hoffman:

@Ted_Hoffman

Saints have 8 positive tests. One player in the 8; six are coaches, and reportedly the coaching staff and personnel staff was fully vaccinated.

Something to keep in mind as you make your Sunday picks.

Something to keep in mind as you consider your COFPs.