Seems like turnout is going to be astronomical this year. In Indiana we had 2.5 million votes cast in 2016 for President. We have already had 1.7 million early ballots in 2020 and the line at my normal polling place was twice as long as it was in 2016. Nationally they are predicting going from 135 million votes to 150-160 million votes. What does it mean? Could this change the electoral map in weird and unexpected ways? Could Trump win the rust belt and lose the sunbelt?
TBH, I doubt that it’ll change the electoral map all that much except for those key swing states.
Hopefully younger people turn out. If they wanna be social media puppets, follow the orders!
I do wonder how the popular vote will end up looking like in some of the states that are “definitely red” and “definitely blue” that have large population center.
For example, in CA, it’s been generally declared to be a blue state w/o question. I’m sure that many red-voters will likely not bother voting because “why bother” when the majority of people in those larger cities are going to dominate the popular vote anyway.
I’ve seen a similar attitude present in IL when the population of the Chicago area (~7.8m for 5 counties) is more than 1/2 the total population of the state (~12.7m) and it’s been historically a solid blue voting block.
I somewhat agree, but Indiana would certainly fall in that basket for Trump and we have higher turnout projected right now.
Based on what I know about Hoosiers . . . they’re in the Pence bucket. He’s just currently attached to Trump.
If you vote for Trump you are a Trump supporter.
I’m working the polls in a red state. Seeing lots of young people.
We use a touch screen to check people in and they need a stylus. So there are a pile of them individually wrapped in plastic. There are red ones, blue ones and black ones. I’m trying to keep a balance of colors on the table. But I keep running out of blue ones.
I have hope! Bollier for senate would just make my whole week!
My state will go for Biden regardless. So I wrote in Rubio/Romney. Looking forward to 2024.
I understand the sentiment, but personally I would like to see Biden win the popular vote by 20 points, so even if my state were certain one way or the other, I would go Biden.
Interesting. Back when I voted in person, I never touched anything when I checked in, until they handed me my ballot.
High turnout usually favors the Dems, although Trump did kind of hone in on normally complacent Republicans in 2016. Hard to imagine that he has substantially more supporters than those that voted for him in 2016 but then it’s hard for me to imagine how people who aren’t openly racist can support him either.
Huge turnout could make this a landslide, I suppose either way, but I think more people are sick of Trump and those who stayed home last time will make an effort to show up.
Eh, it’s not going to be a Trump landslide. If Trump has a great night he could win. But it won’t be a landslide. I think Trump’s best case scenario is:
Biden 253 (picks up MI, WI, NE-02)
Trump 285 (picks up NV)
That would be essentially saying that the polls are off by more than 6% but less than 7%.
Obviously 285-253 is not a landslide. I don’t think Trump can win MI or WI this time and the only poll I saw for NE-02 had Biden way ahead so I’m assuming that means he’s also got that sewn up too, but I’ve admittedly been following NE-02 much less than the others.
I am just thinking when you go from 55% turnout to 70% turnout, there could be any number of surprises.
November 3rd elections have been quite good for Democrats. 92 Clinton 64 Johnson and 36 Roosevelt.
As a part time pastor I am fascinated on how this will shape the politics of Christians. I don’t see any support for the old religious right movement from the younger than 40 crowd at our church. None of them care about homosexuality or abortion. (They may care about abortion as in they think it is generally wrong, but they understand why someone would choose to do it and do not think it should be outlawed) I really think Trump could be the deathblow for younger people of faith thinking that Republicans are the standard bearer for morality. It took him to remove my blinders so maybe I am projecting but it will be fascinating to see where it goes.
the next big issue with bipartisan youth (18-40) support from both sides is drug legalization. The first party to position themselves as the pro-drug party (and thus force the other side to be the anti-drug party) will dominate.
I waited 1.5 hrs (all but 5 mins outside) to vote. Line had shrunk to 45 mins wait time (based on where I was standing) by the time I was going in to vote. Weather was cooperating, which probably drove turnout higher. 8 registration checking stations (choke point), 2 ballot dispensers. They had processed over 2500 (maybe 3000+) voters in 6 hrs. Longest line since I started voting in presidentials there in 1996 was 2008. This dwarfed it.
What do you think it means? It is hard to believe there are so many people still showing up on Election Day with 100 million early votes cast. They were projecting 150 million total votes cast so that would mean 50 million more to be cast today. That meant there shouldn’t hardly be any lines at all today.
I generally agree with that. There’s enough edge cases where even religious people who generally think it’s sinful say “oh, well abortion should be OK in that scenario” that I don’t think there’s the push among younger religious folks for it to be illegal. They also don’t know any different as they weren’t even alive pre Roe.