No “surprises” (for me) so far in the results. If AZ does go blue, well, I had it red, but it was 50-50 going into the night.
That is weird. Even if Biden got 100% of the presumed remaining vote based on the counts so far, he would lose the state.
It doesn’t sound so likely that there are that many mail in ballots sent in the past couple of days…
So assuming trump wins nc, ohio, florida, ga and biden wins minnesota. Between michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania how many would they each need to win?
I think Biden needs to flip NC to win. Else, it’s gonna be super hard for Biden to win based on the current vote count on google.
The electoral map I’m looking at shows Biden with 209 and if he takes AZ, ME, MN that gets him 25 more to 234. MI = 16, WI = 10, PA = 20. 234+46=280.
Someone might have brought this up… But this looks like polls were wrong two elections in a row… Thus far at least. I think pollsters need to rethink their methodology…
PA and MI are heavily leaning towards Trump tho.
PA has 400k mail in ballots that will be counted tommorow. The expectation is 72% mail in is biden.
538 simulated an 89% chance of a Biden win, often by hundreds of electorcal votes if the graphic is representative
They had a similar prediction in 2016.
Ah I see. Makes sense - I don’t know how many mail-in ballots there are per state.
NE2 sounds like it will go for Biden.
If Biden can get WI+MI but loses ME2 and everything else from '16 that’s not largely acknowledged as being the final result holds, that’s 270 and then PA is a bonus.
WI will reportedly need until tomorrow to count everything in Milwaukee. PA will be counting votes for a couple days. If you stay up all night waiting for “final” results, you’re going to have a long Wednesday. Not concerned unless MI or WI get away.
It depends on state florida counted mail in ballots first. I think Michigan said it would take a few days to count them… PA started counting them but stopped.
So it depends on the state and how many left they have to count.
Nope, it was around 70/30 in 2016.
Looks like RI voters have rejected changing the name of the state. May be the only vote I cast for a winner this year.
https://www.ri.gov/election/results/2020/general_election/races/624.html
Oh really thanks! So this is much worse…
weird thing to vote on. I’d probably be in the “I don’t care” camp.
Does 538 do probabilities right now? I can’t find anything…
I’m bracing myself for all the whining about how Joe Biden won the popular vote…