Well went to bed at 10, woke up and went through news around 2 AM, went back to sleep, awake now and have gone through everything.
Thoughts: This is going exactly how I really hoped it wouldn’t.
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Iatp, except I went to sleep at midnight, it’s now 4, and I shouldn’t have checked when I woke up 
unlikely to sleep anymore.
This is so close looks like 50/50. Arizona was taken away from Biden, still looks like he will win.
All of these states are really close.
What’s the prediction of when we will know who the next President is? Today, tommorow,.next week, or a couple of weeks? Or longer?
Crap…
Where are you seeing that trump has Arizona? I see biden won Arizona.
I think he’s saying that some network had called Arizona for Biden, and have switched back to saying it is too early to call. (I’m not sure what network that is)
Oooh okay, cause when I went to bed at way too late an hour, it hadn’t been called for anyone. Now I see it for biden.
Yeah sorry. I wasn’t clear. Arizona is like 85% reported with a biden lead of a 100k. I think I saw that ny times took it away. Still looks like biden will win that.
This will be a nail biter that comes down to Michigan and Pennsylvania l think…
Biden now leading Michigan. And they are saying that the late Michigan vote is mail in ballots. And that Nevada is also mail in ballots. This seems like an advantage.
My math right now as of right now LOL! Sorry for the sloppy presentation, Excel doesn’t paste well
Trump Biden Outstanding Biden % of remaining needed
NC 50.1% 48.7% 6.0% 60.97%
GA 50.5% 48.3% 6.0% 67.23%
MI 49.4% 49.0% 8.0% 52.30%
PA 54.8% 44.0% 36.0% 59.60%
WI 48.9% 49.6% 5.0% 43.35%
NV 48.6% 49.2% 33.0% 49.39%
AZ 47.6% 51.0% 16.0% 41.08%
538…“We’re getting a lot of questions about polls” - ummm…yeah…you should be getting a lot of questions about it.
Biden just overtook Trump in Michigan.
Its over. PA doesnt even matter.
My friends in Trump country are admitting the same.
Latest I saw had Biden barely ahead in MI.
Ahead 10K in Michigan and 8K in Nevada. They are both mail in though. Do you know the demographics of how many dems to reps sent in mail in ballots. I know generally it was 2:1 in favor of dems overall. However, I think by state it was a lot different.
Probably even more important is the areas that the mail in ballot remains to be counted. It sounds like it is mostly democratic areas.
Yeah, I’ve been wondering about that. Democrats more likely to answer the phone?
my vote is for
there’s also
but it looks sort of hyperbolic to me, whereas I read as the real thing.
Your state does have a Looooooong name.
Welcome back. I’ve missed you.
I heard a Wall Street Journal pollster say they got the weights wrong. He was saying that for white non-educated rural (I think - I don’t recall exactly which group). They had like a 15% weight when it was more like low 30s…
Also really interesting is the senate races. Those are also too early to call.
So if Biden wins and Republicans remain in senate, then it will be a challenge to accomplish things. Hopefully, another stimulus will be passed.
Current count has it 227-213 Biden, remaining states are NV, AZ, GA, MI, WI, PA, NC.
AZ - will go to Biden
WI - expected to tip Biden later today as mail-in ballots are tallied
MI - also expected to tip Biden later today
PA - lots of votes in Philadelphia still to be tallied, they were swamped with early voting
GA - votes hanging in the Atlanta area, also mail-ins.
NC - Trump leads by about 1.5%, but suspicion is that remaining ballots skew to Biden.
NV - everyone gets sent a ballot, may not know for a while but feeling is that could go Biden too.
Just the first three states moves Biden to 264 and then he only needs one of what’s left.
I think the disheartening thing for Democrats is that for the Senate, right now they’re only +1 [won CO and AZ, lost AL]. Gideon lags in ME and I don’t like where she’s at because she’s -6 to Collins while Biden is running +11 which infers lots of split ticket voting. Cunningham lags in NC [he needs remaining votes to break for him in the same way Biden does], Peters is trailing in MI so he needs uncounted votes to break his way. They didn’t pick off Ernst in IA, they didn’t pick off Graham in SC. If they could get to 50, Harris could be the tie-break but as it looks right now, 50 is the upper-bound and they’re staring at 49 max and needing to pick off one of the GA seats in the run-offs and that might be asking a hell of a lot.
True but the remainder to be counted will lean heavily Biden.
CNN isn’t calling MI, WI, or AZ yet, but it’s hard to imagine that Trump has a chance in any. If remaining states go as in 2016 that’s sufficient for a Biden win.