I don’t disagree that we need to be careful with the numbers, but from what I have seen people are treating kids as “safe”, rather than at “some risk”. The situation with kids has changed since the emergence of the original Wuhan pathogen.
The P1 variant in Brazil for example can actually kill children. And the incidence of long covid is likely to be far higher than in the UK, which is dominated by the less virulent B1.1.7 variant.
The Brazil variant is at present already circulating in the US and the UK. Genomic sequencing has confirmed this fact.
Some of the variants in India, also identified in the US (and probably the UK, but that doesn’t make the local morning news here) also kill kids. Although they are still a lot more likely to kill young adults than kids.
This all happens because the problems (blood clots and oxygen deprivation) migrate to those areas and cause damage.
It’s like throwing a wrench into an engine. If its a small wrench, the engine will have issues, but will very likely keep working with some weird noises. You can potentially fix these issues. But the larger the wrench, the larger the problems in the engine, and the less of a chance you have of fixing them all.
This is difficult to answer because I do not think it is possible to extrapolate from Brazil to more developed countries (due to the better healthcare support systems), but in Brazil infant mortality has doubled or tripled in rural areas.
I saw my friend for brunch a few weekends ago. he had covid early in the pandemic, and still a year later gets chest pains. not sure if that’s considered “long covid”. He had covid-related symptoms for a while, and he says it’s not as bad as it was at the beginning.
also, oddly enough, he is ideal weight and in good health otherwise, whereas his husband is morbidly obese. both got covid. my ideal weight friend had pretty bad symptoms where he hallucinated and thought he needed to go to the hospital at times and still has side effects a year later. OTOH, his morbidly obese husband had a very minor case that lasted only a few days. you would guess the opposite on looking at them.
I think that the worst part of the Pandemic is when health professionals have to choose who got oxygen or not based on what was available (Hospital wide).
That seems to be the deciding factor on who survives or not based on the less serious cases (the more serious cases pretty much always need ventilators).
Based on the stories I have read about and heard, that is what it comes down to.
Hmm, I was looking at reported cases. So… the CDC’s latest estimates are that we have been under-reported by a factor of 3.5.
I’m going to guess that a lot of the excess 2.5xReported were not serious cases, however, and therefore may not have imparted much immunity. I guess we’ll find out. I hope you are right that we are approaching herd immunity.
Yes, I’m a little surprised at their estimates of symptomatic vs asymptomatic infections (I’m also a bit skeptical of their ‘unreported hospitalizations’ multiplier).
Like you, I would also guess that a lot of the unreported infections were asymptomatic or mild cases, and it could be that they were so mild as to not impart immunity, but the causality could be reversed & they were mild because of say, cross-immunity from prior exposure to similar antigens (e.g. SARS1).
I also hope we are approaching herd immunity. As you say, we’ll find out.
The Seattle Fire Department is reporting they vaccinated 83 fans at last night’s game. I’m curious how many got the J&J vs. the Moderna shot. Mostly J&J is my guess.
Also, the game was an overwhelmingly positive experience. Not only was the game great, but the fans around me were are very kind and respectful. The majority kept their mask on while eating and drinking, briefly pulling it down to take a bite (as did I), even though they didn’t have to. Being around so many people exceeding COVID guidelines made me feel really good.
