The race is neck and neck now but let’s assume Trump loses. He’s probably too old for another run in 4 years and will most likely fade away. What I’m worried about is the vacuum he leaves behind. Who will be the next charismatic leader that will fill that vacuum and grow the movement to its critical mass and cause a civil war?
if u are the charismatic type, this is a golden opportunity for historical fame. Just join your local republican party and start spouting insane things like democrats are demons and the great awakening and the apocalypse and you’ll get really far
He’s not fading away unless he dies, and even then I expect his supporters to build an altar to him somewhere.
Should he be too old in 2028? Probably. Will that stop him from running? I suspect not, especially since he’ll still have Secret Service protection as a former President and can continue to milk that for everything he can - but if for some reason and he’s still alive but doesn’t run there’s a >50% chance the Republican Party lets him name who their candidate will be by decree.
The name I’ve always heard to watch: Tom Cotton. Has many of the same dangerous “conservative” ideas re: freedom of the press and is a staunch advocate of eliminating any form of welfare such as SNAP and the like, but he’s full of ambition and unlike Trump he’s smart.
He’s too polished. Hulk Hogan would beat him in a primary. There’s actually a non zero chance that the republican primary will be decided by an actual cage fight in the near future.
I think even he knows Junior and Eric are dipfucks. (But I’m repeating myself.) Ivanka is somewhat an artifact of him, but Jared would drag her down with every bad decision possible and I think she doesn’t have any respect from anyone in Republican circles without daddy forcing it. Tiffany is the (intentionally) forgotten child, and Baron is 18 years away from being eligible and by then the Trump Effect will have worn off.
That said, none of them give him something he doesn’t have. Every other candidate who wants to be his successor will grovel at his feet and lavish him with praise and money and that’s what he really wants if he can’t be President.
Elise Stefanik will be a MAGA torchbearer in the House, but I think she lacks the charisma to be the face of the party and of course has the GOP-side disadvantage of being a woman.
DeSantis will vie to be the new Trump. He’s shown time and time again that he’ll talk a big game, then when things get tough he’ll whine and lose. Obviously, that isn’t a dealbreaker for MAGA, but I’m not seeing him take up the mantle.
JD Vance will try, and he has the backing of the Heritage Foundation, so he can’t be ignored. However, assuming a Trump loss we will have to see how badly Trump throws him under the bus. He already has stated “I don’t talk to him much” when asked about gross things that Vance has said, like “childless women’s votes should count less”. If we assume a 2024 loss, and at my estimation something like a 60% chance for Trump to be alive in 2028, I anticipate lots of blaming Vance alongside every other target.
I’m not sure Vance will be able to run in 2028 off the foundation of “I lost the election for Trump”. At the same time, I’m expecting Trump to be mentally incapable of doing even the campaigning he currently is. If he puts his name in for President, I foresee some tepid online-only campaign via released video, for the purpose of squeezing out final grifts.