United States Presidential & Congressional Election 2024

Michigan has a serious court case to keep Trump off the ballot that doesn’t require a felony conviction - from what I can tell just the judge (judges assuming it goes to the SC of MI) need to agree that Trump engaged in insurrection (14th amendment argument.)

I’ve heard from legal people that if the Colorado case rules against Trump, MI is likely to follow the precedent.

Overall, I do feel this is appropriate. It gives MAGA people ammo to scream about cheating, but I do believe that he actively encouraged a coup, and that’s the law.

If Biden did something similar I’d be incredibly angry at him and the party, and I’d want him immediately impeached and tried. And I’m a progressive who votes in line with Democrats. So although I don’t love the feeling of removing Trump from a ballot, it does feel like the proper legal action.

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In a 3 way race Biden receives 39 percent support, Trump receives 36 percent support, and Kennedy receives 22 percent support.

Somewhat supports the theory that maybe Trump is hurt slightly more than Biden is by Kennedy as a 3rd party candidate

Huh, I agree with Thomas on that one. Oh well.

I don’t put too much weight on polls but was still surprised to see Kennedy at as high a number as 22%! That is higher than Ross Perot’s popular vote in 1992 but that did not translate into any electoral votes.

And… what was Perot polling at? I bet he was polling higher than he ended up. It was cool to tell people you were voting for Perot, but I bet a lot of folks who polled for Perot ended up pulling the lever for GHWB or WJC.

I think about 6 months before the election Perot was polling in the lead and hit a high point of around 38% in the polls with Bush ~30% & Clinton ~26% the rest undecided. I think this support dwindled as the election neared and a lot after all his charts at the debate IIRC and his choice of “gridlock” Stockdale as running mate didn’t seem to do him any favors.

I think America loves the idea of a 3rd party candidate in theory but aren’t as enamored when the 3rd party candidate’s warts start getting aired nightly on the 6 o’clock news.

I mean I always thought it was hysterical that a guy that made a fortune off government contracting was going to be the one who said he could reign in government spending and waste.

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His campaign staff lost control of him and it all went bonkers that summer. He actually stopped his campain and withdrew from the race in July. He claimed that the “New Black Panther Party” were plannjng ro assassinate him and his family.

He rejoined the presidential race in October, and then did his crazy economic plan you remember.

No idea of he could have maintained his support if he had stayed in the race or if the end result was inevitable.

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Though he did do well enough to take 2nd in Utah. The only state where Clinton finished 3rd.

It does amaze me how Utah goes sometimes. I doubt Kennedy will do very much in Utah, but may draw enough from Biden that another third party candidate from the middle/right could end up taking second.

Trump on Viktor Orbán:

10/24: Says Orbán is leader of Turkey, talks about how Orbán’s country borders Russia. Turkey does not border Russia.

10/29: Figures out Orbán is PM of Hungary, talks about how Hungary borders Russia. Hungary does not border Russia.

11/4: Talks again about how great a leader Orbán is. Orbán is a fascist, Hungary has 20% inflation. Talks again about how Hungary borders both Ukraine and Russia, still not true.

And Biden is the one with cognitive issues.

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Pretty much only pays lip service to Orban because that is precisely what Trump wants in the US.

A right-wing authoritarian who also has control over the media and major businesses. The country is basically sinking while Orban extends his grip on the economy.

Well Hungary does border Ukraine and since Trump probably considers Ukraine to be part of Russia, he’s really only wrong about confusing Turkey and Hungary. Which probably both remind him of eating so… really he was pretty much right all along.[/red]

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I am starting to get very concerned now because it looks like things are lining up for Trump.

The US will likely face an economic downturn in 2024, and the twin situations of Ukraine and Israel will polarise voters against Biden. Some polling is now showing Trump ahead, which is worrisome.

I know there is a long time until the next election but it looks like Trump could stretch out his legal woes till then.

Trump leads in 2024 polls as fears over war and economy hurt Biden - Subscribe to the Financial Times via @FT

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I’ve been feeling same as I felt in 2016 for the past year. Trump was projected to have a 33% chance of winning then… feels the same. I hope it doesn’t happen again, but in 2016 I wasn’t so much surprised as just disappointed in America. Anybody who counted him out then or counts him out in 2024 had/has blinders on.

Trump has a lot of stumbling blocks in front of him - for example, any lengthy prison time for violating a gag order could harm his campaigning. But he also has a clear possibility of delay, delay, I’m the President now so f*** your court cases, then die.

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It was very important that Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 election.
It is very important that Trump does not win the 2024 election.

ifyq

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I agree with that edit

I wonder how much today’s limited slate of elections will be a harbinger of 2024?

5 “biggest” that I know of, maybe there are more -

Ohio - Constitutional Abortion Amendment
Ohio - Legalize Marijuana
Kentucky - Governor (red state but Dem Gov is reasonably popular I think and has incumbency)
Mississippi - Governor (should be slam dunk for Rs but scandal has surrounded current Gov making reelection much less certain than it should be)
Virginia - State Legislature balance up for grabs. Rs trying to take back control after grabbing Gov mansion last time)

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Yeah, those seem to be the ones getting the most press from what I can see which may be skewed by the fact that my family is mostly on the Ohio / Kentucky border and those two states comprise 3 of the 5 issues you listed.

What is the feeling on how these will go?

The feeling is that the Prop one guaranteeing a right to abortion will pass based on the pseudo referendum on the issue in the August special election. But as I understand it there has been quite a bit of dishonesty from the no on #1 side.

I have no idea how the folks in Ohio feel about legal weed.

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