If every state shifted by as much as that poll suggests, the map would be
That’s not happening
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Is that Biden + FL, TX, IA?
And OH and NC.
Apparently Buttigieg is campaigning for Harris in IA so maybe they have some internals that partially match Selzer.
While it’s possible, I wouldn’t extrapolate that much. It is certainly interesting when a well respected polling org posts a contrarian result.
[nitpick]If there was that much of a leftward shift, I assume Maine’s second district would be some shade of blue, no? I think it’s usually in play, so in a blue wave hypothetical I assume it should be blue.[/nitpick]
I would say that 2020 in Iowa was a bit of an anomaly.
Iowa voted for Obama twice, as well as Gore and Bill Clinton both times. It’s a swing state. To vote for the loser with an 8.2% margin is very unusual. (They did vote for the loser in 2000, but it was very close.)
I don’t know enough about Iowa politics to know if Hillary Clinton particularly shot herself in the foot in Iowa or they just really love Trump or there was a statewide race that boosted GOP turnout or what.
Does anyone have any insight there?
That said, if we assume that the 8% margin was half some other non-repeating anomaly and half real and cut it in half to 4% and add on the 3% margin that Harris now has according to the latest poll, that’s a 7 point swing.
Applying a 7 point swing to 2020 the map would flip North Carolina, Florida, Texas, and maybe Maine’s 2nd district depending on the decimals… they’d be right on the edge and I’m doing this back-of-the-envelope.
Still an encouraging result. 
Iowa ranks high in education and low on religion for a state that is mostly rural. Maybe that aligns them more with a typical suburban mindset? That seems like the most difficult demographic to understand generally from state polling.
It would be nice if the Iowa poll was credible but I am not a big believer in poll predictions.
Wish I was home in the Pacific time zone on Election Day and watch the results roll in. I expect there won’t be much settled by my bedtime in the Eastern time zone.
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From X:
Final Selzer poll findings (and the actual result)
2022 Senate: R+12 (R+12)
2020 President: R+7 (R+8)
2020 Senate: R+4 (R+7)
2018 Governor: D+2 (R+3)
2016 President: R+7 (R+9)
2014 Senate: R+7 (R+8)
2012 President: D+5 (D+6)
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I’ve seen people point out that Iowa farmers suffered heavily from the Chinese retaliatory tariffs on soy beans, although that would have been true before the 2020 elections, and that Iowa’s deeply restrictive abortion law is very unpopular, which is new for 2024. But the main thing for me is that if Selzer is close to accurate, it could mean a general midwest shift, which would be good news for WI.
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Euopean media is predicting a lot of instability as votes come in Nov 7 and 8 in the swing states.
I do hope we don’t have a replay of Jan 6th in various State Capitals.
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I also hope the gvts have taken steps to step in quickly if things get out of hand. Part of the problem last time was that Trump sat idly by hoping things would be chaotic and lead to a favourable outcome for him.
This ad came on during meet the press this morning, so it’s on NBC as well. It’s quite disturbing.
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On an aside, do you think the USD will lose value if there is drama?
Political risk is definitely negative, but I don’t see much linkage with the US Economy unless its literally down to a handful of votes like in 2000.
Heres my prediction. Harris wins decisively. Few if any gather to use violence afterwards because they’ve seen the January 6 folks land themselves in jail.
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If she wins by a large enough margin, I would agree.
If recounts are involved because its very close, thats when I think there might be trouble.
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Just to update this post, it looks like the market is now unwinding quite a few bets regarding a Trump win due to that Iowa poll.
From the looks of things, if Trump loses its very likely going to come down to women voting en masse against him.
Conservative or not, voting for Trump as a woman is probably a bridge too far for many now.
That Iowa poll has left me feeling a bit upbeat today. Even the part it talks about there being more young voters that expected. Hopefully they vote Harris.
The last few weeks have been a reminder of how exhausting Trump can be. He never pivoted away from the grievances to give anyone something to vote for.
Turnout will still be the deciding factor for tomorrow, but it feels like Harris has the momentum into election day.
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