If you are only explaining where the polls get their margins, i think i agree.
My argument for why results are different than polls sometimes:
Now apply to non-indepedent sampling.
I think @now_samantha 's post says it more data-sciency.
Judicial ruling that the new, heavily criticized rule that initial GA results have to be hand counted will not go into effect for this election.
https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/4935690-georgia-judge-blocks-ballot-hand-count-rule/
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Every time I head Vance talk about his kids, it continues to weird me out about how he says that his wife has 3 kids, rather than âwe have 3 kidsâ.
But the latest thing that reminded of this is even weirder. Usha Vance is Hindu, and goes with him to church every week so that she can keep the kids quiet. Wat? (And it also reminds me of the differences between churches. At my church, the kids have separate activities during the arguably more boring portion of the service.)
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Paraphrasing a line from the play I saw over the weekend:
Statistics talk gets me hot.
Update on this: as usual with any Trump-related item, thereâs record-breaking demand.
[taps earpiece] ⌠wait, Iâm getting an update from the newsroom.
Itâs meaningless to the extent that ânew votersâ are assumed to have different voting intentions than registered voters. The problem with polling, generally, is that people lie about their intentions.
Polls use random sampling. There is no reason to assume that the outcomes arent independent. The problem with polls is that
a)people lie
b)you are sampling from registered voters which may not represent the entire voting population
It is fascinating how Trump and Trump world represents all the worst aspects of American capitalism and culture. Itâs like if you had a huge list of all the pros and cons of American capitalism, economics, government, culture, religion and threw out the pros and used the cons as a bucket list.
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âMost people get none because, you know, you put them in the young. You tend to put them in young. Only stupid people put old.â
âYouâre a 78-year old man running for president,â Micklethwait responded incredulously to the comment.
âSo I got three,â Trump continued, appearing to not have registered Micklethwaitâs reaction. âA lot of judgesâa lot of presidents get none. I got three.â
Of all the exchanges in that train wreck interview, thatâs not one that I find bad for Trump. Yes, you want younger people for a lifetime appointment than for a 4 year term.
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Polls use sampling methods that they try to make as random as possible. It isnât the same as truly random sampling.
Even assuming voters are truthful about who they intend to vote for right now, if you believe that voter aâs influence on voter b is as independent as two cards from a deck of cards you are sorely mistaken.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4935954-georgia-early-voting-record-shattered/
âWith the record-breaking 1st day of early voting and accepted absentees we have had over 328,000 total votes cast so far,â Sterling wrote, noting that the previous record was set in 2020 when 136,000 people opted to vote early.
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The difficulty is Iâm not sure that who answers a phone call from an unfamiliar number is random. Pre-1980s, maybe even pre-2000s, I think it was, but with. The widespread adoption of cell phones and a switch from a single phone in a household to everyone having their own phones, I think the assumption that itâs random is no longer safe.
Iâd be curious to see if poll respondents are biased towards people living alone.
Wouldnât cell phones actually reduce this bias?
(Iâm assuming that 30 years ago they only polled one person per phone number, but maybe thatâs wrong.)
I just voted early. I had zero wait for each of the 3 steps in the process: signing in/ID check, voting, or submitting my ballot. The parking lot was extremely busy with cars circling for spots, but I found immediate street parking and walked right in.
just mailed mine in
But itâs so much more exciting to vote on the day!
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on a cruise
We dropped our ballots off yesterday. Zero hassle.
I guess it depends on how they pick who they call. my impression was they used random dialers. I think they also had a process for trying to get whoever they wanted in the household (e.g. male/female, voting age). However, I think it would have been more likely someone would answer as multiple people are sharing the phone and they donât know whoâs calling, so youâd think at least one person would pick-up. Today, itâs easy to screen calls and in many cases, itâs just one person deciding to answer or not and with all the scam calls, the preference is for not. My suspicion is the people who answer are biased towards people desperate to talk to others.