Trump's Goals

What could possibly go wrong when you move hundreds of millions of records that are affected by an extremely convoluted tax code that is continually changing?

Jury rigged, workarounds upon jury rigged workarounds. I suspect it would be vastly more complicated to do this transition than doing an airlines. With an airline, it seems like you could freeze the system at a particular date and start everyone after that date on a new system. I’m not sure that’s feasible with taxes where there is so much carryover across long periods of time.

They will and already have.

10 year US government bonds are already much higher than less important countries. Canada is at about 3.3% and Germany 2.3% for 10 year bonds.

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LOL, OMG are you serious? Have you not seen the republican play book every time the Republicans are in office? I mean this time the tax cuts are more than going to pay for themselves in productivity gains! pinky swear!!!

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Not sure why people keep ignoring the bond market.

The US has limits as well.

“This time will be no different” does not apply.

No one is ignoring the bond market and the likely recession that Republican Tax Cuts will bring. But it doesn’t change the fact that tax cuts, probably targeted at the most wealthy and largest corporations are very likely coming next spring when the dysfunctional republicans figure out the extent of their wish list and just how much they can ram through.

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Sure.

But they will have to come with some spending cuts or spreads will materially rise.

Thats my entire point here.

Trump vs Bond Market = I can assure you Trump will lose.

I think the DOGE is there to get round reducing revenue by also reducing expenditure. They want to do tax cuts all they need is justification.

When I posted the link from BBC I thought it would be interesting to understand the extent of the cuts that are being envisioned by the DOGE team.

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SNAP, Education, EPA, MEDICAID, ACA Subsidies (assuming ACA even survives another Republican trifecta), Science Funding, EITC, among others are all probably going to get hit hard. It won’t come near off setting the tax cuts but it won’t stop them from claiming it will.

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Agreed.

They don’t have to be aligned. But they do need to make them at least look chunky if they don’t want investors to sell.

I understand the difficulties of system change and accept your point that at a national level it maybe a couple of degrees more difficult than I think.

I however am still shocked by the thought of shuttering IRS. This would send the debt markets crazy because if they setup a new thing it will still need access to the old system. They have no way to go about it without the system problem.

How does spreads rising materially hurt the billionaire class? Does this change in the Bond Market (spreads rising materially) reduce the ownership and control of the largest private owners (billionaires large corps) in comparison to others players in the market.

Oh, I agree shutting the IRS would be dumb. I was just focused on the difficulties of modernizing it.

Is the argument they could just do a flat tax and eliminate it? It’s still going to be complicated to administer that.

Isn’t that what Cooke pointed out?

For someone like Musk where he’s reportedly borrowing his living costs against his shares to avoid paying taxes on his gains, I’d think this would increase his annual living costs somewhat.

He did sell a lot the other year right? That year that he told UNESCO to do a plan and he would look at it.

I think that might have been a forced sale for one reason or another

Legal Eagle has made some prediction of what we might be coming in the next 4 years.

There may have been more to it and I don’t know if he gave UNESCO the money. I remember he got himself cornered in a twitter debate with UNESCO. They said something like they just need like 6 billion and they would meet some important goal. He asked them for a plan and it was submitted and he couldn’t back out.

Any entity that was not going to hold the bonds till maturity would be impacted.

If you buy/sell bonds, their MV would be driven down (making you poorer on paper)

After that it depends on what those assets are connected to.

Collateral?
Retirement?
Backing pension liabilities?
Investment portfolio?

It could get very messy. Not just in the US either. But also abroad.

Coupon payments are nominal (for standard t-bill), so higher inflation would simply eat into your real income from the bond coupon payments.

The real problem is that if they drive up inflation this way, there is a decent chance the Fed would have to raise rates again to control it.

And thats when debt service costs would be a huge problem.

Billionaire class would reduce their exposure to Govt Bonds and build up inflation proof positions in stocks, housing, options etc

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lol thats funny