Trump Tariff Watch

Truly great writing. I relish the ability to get alternate perspectives on an issue. Old risk management habits die hard.

The more I learn about an issue, the more clear it becomes of just how complex human-made systems can be. Perhaps I should take up that offer on a trial subscription?

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There were many great articles in the Globe today on the Trump tariffs: they have a lot of good columnists.

The Globe is the paper of record in Canada and its business section is the jewel in its crown. It does not have a Sunday paper but offers a NY Sunday Times subscription as an add-on, which I bought.

My friend Gordon was a features columnist for the Globe’s business section for many years until his retirement.

So many countries ranked higher than the US (#65) on trade freedom got slapped with retaliatory tariffs. Don’t know how these countries can make their markets more open to US imports given they already are.

WSJ has a graphic describing how the tariffs impact the cost of components in an iPhone:

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The US always used to have the cheapest prices for new electronics.

Thats going to evaporate now. I see a lot more Americans shopping abroad now for cheaper goods.

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Tarrifs so high the Mafia will find it profitable to smuggle in tax-free goods.

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is this before all tariffs even currently existing ones? Don’t recall any tariff increases at 54%

Looks like the graphic is slightly misleading.

The claim is that tariffs add 54% to the cost of components, not that the new tariffs will increase the cost of components by 54%.

The Dear Leader’s tariffs are in addition to those previously announced / already in place.

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So its +20%, followed by another 34%.

China tariffs.

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JLR is the largest car exporter in the UK

https://on.ft.com/3R1egbQ

I’m finding buying anything but American products is mostly achievable. There are a few items I’m still buying from the U.S. (breakfast burritos, drink mixes, and streaming services). I definitely think Canada and EU need to do a digital services tax. I suspect it will make Trump and his billionaires apoplectic.

Oh yeah the funny thing about the de minimis exemption is it’s there because customs doesn’t have the manpower to enforce taxes on small ticket items.

Basically same reason why deductibles exist. You’d spend more money enforcing the tax than the revenue generated on those items.

I usually have sympathy for farmers but the ND and SD ones massively supported Trump in the last election.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/canada-us-tariffs-north-south-dakota-farmers-1.7502342

Its the usual excuse.

I voted for Trump because of [A], but he is doing [B] [C] [D]

So its not our fault /s

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There is now a very good chance that the US could be facing inflation over 4% before the end of the year because of the tariffs. That means stagflation.

The leopards are feasting on all the faces.

You know I’m going to look into where the money is flowing. In this case, fertilizer, or potash.

First a look at the US domestic production. Dominated by 2 firms. With about 40% and 35% market share.

  • Nutrien: Produces a significant portion of North American potash and controls a large share of potassium fertilizer sales.
  • Mosaic: Also a major player, producing a substantial amount of North American potash and controlling a significant portion of potassium fertilizer sales.

Canada is the world’s largest producer of potash. So what do you think will happen to the price of domestically produced potash when the cheapest source goes up 20%. This is not a trick question.

So farmers are getting it up the butt. By April, the decision of what crop to target is a done deal. And now the profit/loss by product is radically altered. Gonna be a lot of pain.

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More subsidies like last time? Isn’t that what happens next?

Definitely. Trump will listen to them.

Man, I would love more of that sweet, sweet giveaway money, assuming they have the same naïve rules on eligibility.