Truly great writing. I relish the ability to get alternate perspectives on an issue. Old risk management habits die hard.
The more I learn about an issue, the more clear it becomes of just how complex human-made systems can be. Perhaps I should take up that offer on a trial subscription?
There were many great articles in the Globe today on the Trump tariffs: they have a lot of good columnists.
The Globe is the paper of record in Canada and its business section is the jewel in its crown. It does not have a Sunday paper but offers a NY Sunday Times subscription as an add-on, which I bought.
My friend Gordon was a features columnist for the Globe’s business section for many years until his retirement.
So many countries ranked higher than the US (#65) on trade freedom got slapped with retaliatory tariffs. Don’t know how these countries can make their markets more open to US imports given they already are.
I’m finding buying anything but American products is mostly achievable. There are a few items I’m still buying from the U.S. (breakfast burritos, drink mixes, and streaming services). I definitely think Canada and EU need to do a digital services tax. I suspect it will make Trump and his billionaires apoplectic.
There is now a very good chance that the US could be facing inflation over 4% before the end of the year because of the tariffs. That means stagflation.
You know I’m going to look into where the money is flowing. In this case, fertilizer, or potash.
First a look at the US domestic production. Dominated by 2 firms. With about 40% and 35% market share.
Nutrien: Produces a significant portion of North American potash and controls a large share of potassium fertilizer sales.
Mosaic: Also a major player, producing a substantial amount of North American potash and controlling a significant portion of potassium fertilizer sales.
Canada is the world’s largest producer of potash. So what do you think will happen to the price of domestically produced potash when the cheapest source goes up 20%. This is not a trick question.
So farmers are getting it up the butt. By April, the decision of what crop to target is a done deal. And now the profit/loss by product is radically altered. Gonna be a lot of pain.