I hope to have my Irish citizenship application in the mail on Wednesday!
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This part is key:
This is precisely what happened in Brazil.
High import tariffs that were originally designed to protect nascent private industry became normalised, leading to those same companies not becoming more productive (competitive), so the higher domestic prices remained.
For the US, I would bet on the import tariffs causing a permanently higher price level alongside lower long-term productivity growth.
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Good for you.
I found this article in today’s Globe to be of interest.
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A couple years ago my Canadian family pointed out how easy it would be for me to become a Canadian citizen because my dad was born there (and shortly thereafter whisked back to england with a divorced mother).
All the same, actuarial is hyper competitive in Toronto, no?
Aston University in the UK has now modelled the tariff and counter-tarrif responses, alongside their long-term impacts.
So effectively we have scenarios 1-6, with #6 looking at the long-term impacts.
The countries that will be most damaged are:
Mexico (-6.6% reduction in GDP per capita)
Canada (-4.9% reduction in GDP per capita)
Ireland (-2.5% reduction in GDP per capita)
US (-2.5% reduction in GDP per capita)
South Korea (-1.6% reduction in GDP per capita)
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
Scenario 5
Scenario 6
At my company, the last time I looked, the quick approximation to convert between US and Canadian P&C actuarial pay scales was to take the US pay scale, multiply by 0.9, and search-replace “USD” with “CAD”.
I’m not certain, however, whether there’s a difference in target bonus schedules that also needs to be considered.
That’s another reason why I decided not to move north when I did a detailed number-crunching a few years ago.
Makes sense, yes combine that with Canadian housing scarcity sounds painful.
Goshdarnit, Dan!! We got butter tarts tooooo!!! And poutine!!! 
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I’d have a caesar. I’m surprised we aren’t having caesars right now.
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back to chorin
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Not surprising that the US identified Bill 96 as a trade barrier. It is an issue in our Federal election.
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Not so much a scarcity when you’re looking at houses that actuaries can afford. Competitive, maybe. But there’s lots of stuff available.
Just bought a bunch of BC wines here. Thought the Americans might like to see what the US wine section looks like at our liquor stores.
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Actions have consequences, Europeans plan to buy less from American arms manufacturers.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-officials-object-european-push-buy-weapons-locally-2025-04-02/
Sold out!
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Going to Europe tomorrow, genuinely nervous about the reaction
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US wine producers wish this was the case. Bottles are sitting in a warehouse somewhere.
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I suspect in this case, the stores wish they were sold out, given that they (or someone back up the supply chain) paid for the bottles when they took possession from the producers.
Meanwhile, the producers are wishing that more bottles were being sold into the supply chain.
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