Trump Tariff Watch

EU mercosur deal getting close, needs some parliamentary ratifications.

This is going to be a gigantic mess. The legalities will go on for years.

Wondering if there is precedent for a country to sue usa for tariffs not legally voted on by Congress, as required.

Trump threatening 200% tariffs on French wines if they don’t join his board of peace.

The futures market appears to be telling Trump to STFU this morning. TACO Tuesday. Maybe we need a good 20% correction to get this moron back on his heels.

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I’ve got several thousand dollars awaiting a correction at the moment. I figure between the tariffs and messing with the Treasury he’s going to push the market over the edge at some point soon.

I’ve got plenty in TBIL and other bond funds that I can shift over if a buying opportunity comes along. I have built up enough of a buffer in more conservative ETFs that I have been ready for a while now. I took advantage of the opportunity last April to pile in while everyone else was bailing out.

I assume the Irish Star is related to the Daily Star. I love the “bombshell” link in the article that he really didn’t have bone spurs. Duh.

I feel lied to

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Trump’s tariffs and immigration raids are having a larger effect on the native US population vs foreign born.

Note that the BLS data comes from the Current Population Survey. The immigrant vs. native born information is volunteered by the participants and not checked. And, people can simply decline to participate. Hence the results are subject to both selective non-participation and intentional misstatements of immigration status.

I believe Trump has claimed a big increase in native born employment. Skeptics have said that looks like an artifact of the survey methods.

This paper has a discussion of the problem and says the CPS shows a growth in native born population that is “implausibly large”. (Since some of those extra people are employed, that would lead to an increase in the reported number of native born employed.) https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/dec/what-is-affecting-cps-data-shifts-immigration-native-born-populations

It seems that these survey problems could also impact differential unemployment rates, or not, it’s complicated.

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I expected this even though Trump praised Carney a few days ago for negotiating more trade with China.

Trump forced Canada to seek new trading partners. Terrible to be squeezed between two behemoths!

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trump-tariff-canada-china-goods-9.7059561

The only rational thing you can do is ignore the orange cheeto and keep diversifying away from the US.

I suspect leaders around the world are figuring this out now. There was far too much nostalgia and magical thinking before, where leaders thought trade with the US would return to the status quo ante position when Trump is gone.

Carney’s Davos speech will be viewed historically as the pivotal moment in terms of this movement.

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These people are truly pathetic.

Other US officials criticised Canada at Davos. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said it was a bad idea for Canada to engage with China while US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent raised Alberta’s referendum push to break away from Canada.

“Albertans are very independent people,” said Bessent during an interview. “Rumours that they may have a referendum on whether they want to stay in Canada or not,” he said, adding that “people are talking. People want sovereignty. They want what the US has got.”

“There are lines that are being crossed here,” said Goldy Hyder, president of the Business Council of Canada. “The comments on Alberta sovereignty are entirely inappropriate.”

Trump officials can interfere in Canadian politics as much as they want but woe-betide any foreigner saying anything about the US

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Trump has been a net negative for the average blue collar worker though. Take a look:

Blue collars shouldn’t take it personally though. He doesn’t consider healthcare workers professional either.

I want to believe that will hurt MAGA in November.

Slightly off-topic, but I’m seeing a number of posts with people upset about spiking electricity and gas bills. I wonder if that has a bigger negative effect.

Don’t underestimate the power of the Kool Aid.

It might, but the challenge is that the average voter has a short memory, and the general election is not scheduled at a time when consumers will be facing peak heating or cooling bills.