25 months of the 2/10 being inverted.
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The NAIC is developing a new scenario generator. One current controversy is whether long-term projection of an inverted yield curve is a realistic scenario. 
Looks pretty realistic to me
The yield curve took about 2 years to get out of its inversion. 
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And now we have just about as flat a curve as I can recall. Lock in your forward rates
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New 1.5 month T-bill rate on the Treasury yield curve today.
:-?
It’s true:
Why? 
? Maybe?
Yeah, at the top of the Daily Treasury Bill Rates page it says:
Effective with the inaugural auction of the new benchmark 6-week Treasury bill on Tuesday, February 18, 2025, Treasury plans to include 6-week bill prices in its input data set for the daily yield curve. Treasury also plans to add a 1.5-month CMT to the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates and 6-week bill rates to the Daily Treasury Bill Rates that it publishes.
Changes to the published tables and data files to accommodate the additional rates will appear beginning in the evening on February 14, 2025.
That 6-week Treasury bill is going to be a real game-changer for the American economy and financing the federal government. Maybe we can Treasury bills for 10 weeks, 16 weeks, 23 weeks and 41 weeks while we’re at it.
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Treasury yield curve inverted a little again today.
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More inversion today.
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Pretty flat for a couple years. The pessimist in me says to go long bonds. I have a little in long ETFs but am mostly stocks and short/intermediate maturities. Also a lot of my bond allocation is still in Prosper notes.
The Prosper notes have actually worked pretty well and I’m thinking about moving a lot of my traditional IRA to Prosper when I’m close to retirement. I figure that the Prosper notes can make a decent perpetual annuity drawing about 90% of interest paid and reinvesting principle and 10% of interest. That payout would fluctuate with market conditions but with current conditions would throw off about 5% and sustain the portfolio. Current delinquencies are running at 2.5% of a conservative portfolio.
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https://money.usnews.com/funds/etfs/rankings/long-term-bond
Any favorites?
The first two are all corporate, the third, ILTB, is 50/50 US/corporate. I think between these I would go for ILTB but I’d mix it with AGG or BND to lower the average maturity and reduce the weight on corporates.
Disadvantages of corporate bonds:
- Many are callable.
- With bonds I am looking for safety, in the event of a recession corporates will have some defaults.
- With long maturity corporates, quality of some companies will deteriorate over the period of the loan.
The holdings lists for the first two ETFs both included questionable entries like CVS and PFE in their top 10, not exactly the security blanket that I’d prefer to use.