1695814
September 8, 2024, 6:02pm
101
zConsensus picks
zConsensus
zConsensus’ Predicted Standings:
AFC East
Jets 12 5
Bills 11 6
Dolphins 11 6
Patriots 0 17
AFC North
Ravens 14 3
Bengals 13 4
Browns 8 9
Steelers 7 10
AFC South
Texans 13 4
Jaguars 10 7
Colts 7 10
Titans 2 15
AFC West
Chiefs 16 1
Chargers 10 7
Broncos 3 14
Raiders 3 14NFC East
Cowboys 14 3
Eagles 14 3
Giants 4 13
Commanders 3 14
NFC North
Lions 12 5
Packers 12 5
Bears 10 7
Vikings 3 14
NFC South
Falcons 10 7
Buccaneers 8 9
Saints 8 9
Panthers 1 16
NFC West
49ers 15 2
Rams 9 8
Seahawks 6 11
Cardinals 3 14
1695814
September 8, 2024, 6:04pm
102
Actually, I think I will…just to mock & ridicule it…but it wasn’t a part of zConsensus’ picks, I’ll tell you that.
2 Likes
1695814
September 8, 2024, 6:43pm
103
36 SURE THING ™ Picks this year!
1695814:
SURE THING ™ Picks:
The Bears, Browns, Buccaneers, Eagles, Packers, & Seahawks appear on both lists.
Three times, the Away team is the picked winner – Week 4 Bengals Over Panthers, Week 12 Chiefs Over Panthers, & Week 15 Ravens Over Giants.
Here are the frequencies for the consensus-picked-winners:
Here are the frequencies for the consensus-picked-losers:
1695814
September 8, 2024, 6:56pm
104
1695814:
Participation by Year
2009: 20
2024 Participants
UltimateAnyone
*Real actors, not people
**not even acting, just pretend
An almost-respectable showing of participants this year – The Committee on Participation is awfully grateful for your participation and commitment in the FSP contest. They also appear to be awfully awful at drumming up participation.
1695814
September 8, 2024, 7:30pm
105
1695814:
Preseason Awards :
The Great Minds Think Alike award for the two most correlated entries goes to @1695814 & @Jahiegel , matching 190 (94.5%) of their picks.Opposites Attract award for the two least correlated entries goes to @IPD & @Mitch - TheBottomLineView, matching 184 (57.4%) of their picks.@IPD & @Vorian_Atreides , matching 204 (57.7%) of their picks.Sheep award for the most correlated with the Consensus picks goes to @Jahiegel , matching 239 (92.6%) of the Consensus-picks.Goat award for the least correlated with the Consensus picks goes to @Conor Orr, matching 226 (68.4%) of the Consensus-picks.@IPD & @zConsensus , matching 207 (70.2%) of their picks.Homer award for the player who chose the most home teams goes to @Kid_Rock picking the home team 170 (78.7%) of the time.Rough Road Ahead award for the player who chose the most away teams goes to @redearedslider picking the away team 154 (51.5%) of the time.
If a non-real player won a preseason award, I also awarded one to (a) GoA participant(s).
1695814
September 8, 2024, 7:34pm
106
For good measure, here’s the Awards Summary for those who received pre-season awards:
1695814
September 8, 2024, 7:37pm
107
1695814:
zConsensus’ Predicted Standings:
AFC East
Jets 12 5
Bills 11 6
Dolphins 11 6
Patriots 0 17
AFC North
Ravens 14 3
Bengals 13 4
Browns 8 9
Steelers 7 10
AFC South
Texans 13 4
Jaguars 10 7
Colts 7 10
Titans 2 15
AFC West
Chiefs 16 1
Chargers 10 7
Broncos 3 14
Raiders 3 14
NFC East
Cowboys 14 3
Eagles 14 3
Giants 4 13
Commanders 3 14
NFC North
Lions 12 5
Packers 12 5
Bears 10 7
Vikings 3 14
NFC South
Falcons 10 7
Buccaneers 8 9
Saints 8 9
Panthers 1 16
NFC West
49ers 15 2
Rams 9 8
Seahawks 6 11
Cardinals 3 14
Patriots & Chiefs are notable.
1695814
September 8, 2024, 7:43pm
108
Penultimately, let’s check in on the pick-correlation between our top two winningest players, both members of the prestigious Hall of Fame:
TheArbitrary-PatientZombie Correlation Report:
year
match
differ
pct
2009
194
62
0.758
2010
183
73
0.715
2011
190
66
0.742
2012
182
74
0.711
2013
144
112
0.563
2014
190
66
0.742
2015
206
50
0.805
2016
214
42
0.836
2017
220
36
0.859
2018
222
34
0.867
2019
216
40
0.844
2020
224
32
0.875
2021
233
39
0.857
2022
240
32
0.882
2023
237
35
0.871
2024
245
27
0.901
—
—
—
—
ttl
3340
820
0.803
More correlated this year than ever before.
1695814
September 8, 2024, 7:46pm
109
Finally, a look at the all time standings is in order:
All Time Standings
All Time Standings
Champ
player
wins
losses
ties
%
#
+
PatientZombie
2387
1485
15
0.62
15
+++
TheArbitrary
2387
1486
14
0.62
15
zConsensus
2382
1486
19
0.62
15
Kid_Rock
2342
1532
13
0.60
15
+
Ezekial_Cumberland
2186
1433
12
0.60
14
++
Funemployed
2068
1294
13
0.61
13
ldancer911
1932
1430
13
0.57
13
+
1695814
1873
1233
13
0.60
12
rekrap
1861
1202
9
0.61
12
UltimateAnyone
1838
1268
13
0.59
12
A_Student
1715
1107
10
0.61
11
zAll Home Teams
1582
1270
11
0.55
11
MountainHawk
1527
1072
8
0.59
10
IPD
1478
1119
10
0.57
10
+
Carrie’s Carebears
1417
925
9
0.60
9
+
trondogss
1358
939
7
0.59
9
3rookie
1349
993
9
0.58
9
Vorian_Atreides
1273
1068
10
0.54
9
BingBoing
1219
823
6
0.60
8
+
Jahiegel
1165
667
7
0.64
7
redearedslider
1045
785
9
0.57
7
Standtall
890
641
5
0.58
6
DownInTexas
868
661
7
0.57
6
Oliver Klozov
777
499
4
0.61
5
twig93
768
537
6
0.59
5
Agadefe
704
573
3
0.55
5
+
JUICE
630
391
3
0.62
4
+
YetAnotherCareerChanger
610
411
3
0.60
4
yankeetripper
603
419
2
0.59
4
MayanActuary
595
425
4
0.58
4
glassjaws
587
436
1
0.57
4
Italian Halibut
581
440
3
0.57
4
DyalDragon
523
496
5
0.51
4
+
OutdoormanNowActuary
504
307
4
0.62
3
JudgeSmails
502
310
3
0.62
3
bluecup129
475
290
3
0.62
3
KS6392
466
298
4
0.61
3
SirVLCIV
459
307
2
0.60
3
R Daneel Olivaw
458
307
3
0.60
3
panther
447
319
2
0.58
3
Mog
440
326
2
0.57
3
Grizz
327
213
3
0.60
2
Random Poster
318
193
1
0.62
2
FastAsATurtle
312
200
0
0.61
2
tometom
311
200
1
0.61
2
jesusislord
310
199
3
0.61
2
keyser soze
310
202
0
0.61
2
The Wizard of Awe
309
201
2
0.61
2
Efc1878
306
205
1
0.60
2
WillTreaty
305
205
2
0.60
2
accobra_kid
305
206
1
0.60
2
Sheeeeeeeed
301
210
1
0.59
2
CSPAN
299
212
1
0.58
2
Sweetness0632
297
214
1
0.58
2
Ego Leonard
295
216
1
0.58
2
BallaActuary
295
217
0
0.58
2
General Apathy
294
216
2
0.58
2
ditkaworshipper
294
218
0
0.57
2
Ginormous76
293
219
0
0.57
2
MAX.
291
220
1
0.57
2
statman4
288
222
2
0.56
2
Kool-Aid Man
287
225
0
0.56
2
ichbinnreine
281
229
2
0.55
2
Happy Skunk
261
249
2
0.51
2
+
sam10gle
167
89
0
0.65
1
ultfrisbee
167
89
0
0.65
1
R2T
165
91
0
0.64
1
Abused Student
164
91
1
0.64
1
Da Bears!
164
92
0
0.64
1
punmanbowler
164
92
0
0.64
1
Schnook
163
93
0
0.64
1
SportingNews
163
93
0
0.64
1
LifeIsAPoissonProcess
160
96
0
0.63
1
SteveWhite
159
110
2
0.59
1
Dr. John Zoidberg
158
97
1
0.62
1
gomer_tree
158
98
0
0.62
1
andyphillips
157
99
0
0.61
1
mjpetragnani
156
99
1
0.61
1
Conor Orr
156
116
0
0.57
1
RedSoxFan
154
102
0
0.60
1
AccruedAwakening
153
102
1
0.60
1
Dr. Nuke
153
103
0
0.60
1
silentassassin
152
103
1
0.60
1
Tmaas
151
103
2
0.59
1
Dr. Stranger Things
151
104
1
0.59
1
Slippery Jim
150
105
1
0.59
1
Warrior04
149
107
0
0.58
1
InSpades
149
107
0
0.58
1
Roy Hobbs
148
107
1
0.58
1
Bruton Gastor
148
108
0
0.58
1
Hojo
147
108
1
0.58
1
Force of Interest
147
109
0
0.57
1
Adam Ranks
146
126
0
0.54
1
malkusm
145
109
2
0.57
1
Numbers Nerd
145
110
1
0.57
1
Blue Man
145
111
0
0.57
1
vividox
143
113
0
0.56
1
Gandalf
143
113
0
0.56
1
actubear
141
114
1
0.55
1
J.T.
141
115
0
0.55
1
ShundayBloodyShunday
140
114
2
0.55
1
dinosaur
139
117
0
0.54
1
Arden Bensenhaver
137
119
0
0.54
1
B695814
137
119
0
0.54
1
Browncoat
132
123
1
0.52
1
1 Like
1695814
September 8, 2024, 7:48pm
110
Enjoy the season…but keep an eye on the intern.
1 Like
1695814
September 8, 2024, 9:58pm
111
Would’ve been an STP™ w/o Mr Orr’s pick:
1695814:
Patriots
He even devoted quite a bit of electronic ink to justify this pick:
A Week 1 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals? What? I actually checked—there are supposed to be clear skies in Cincinnati (as of now) so no strange weather game. I just wonder whether Joe Burrow will still be working his way back and Jerod Mayo can throw an absolute screwball of a defensive game plan to muddy things up for the Bengals. I’m talking about a real random 17–14 deal where the Bengals are still getting used to a new offensive coaching staff, kinks are getting worked out and the Patriots just find themselves on a heater (because they do have a pretty darn good defense). We’ve spent a large portion of the offseason discussing how bad this team is going to be, but I do wonder if there’s enough firepower to uppercut the Bengals while they’re looking ahead before falling a bit more into the rhythm we expected.
:toth: to him, I guess.
1 Like
1695814
September 9, 2024, 12:13am
113
Going into the night game, it’s all about SNF, because MNF is an STP™.
Rams, [Jets,49ers] - @OutdoormanNowActuary ; Runner up: @PatientZombie ; VALSA: @redearedslider @PatientZombie
1 Like
1695814:
The Great Minds Think Alike award for the two most correlated entries goes to @1695814 & @Jahiegel , matching 190 (94.5%) of their picks.Opposites Attract award for the two least correlated entries goes to @IPD & @Mitch - TheBottomLineView, matching 184 (57.4%) of their picks.@IPD & @Vorian_Atreides , matching 204 (57.7%) of their picks.
I’m having trouble reconciling the data points where IPD and I match more items than ### and Jahiegel but have nearly half the percentage.
1 Like
1695814
September 9, 2024, 1:40pm
115
I’ll have the intern look into it.
1695814
September 10, 2024, 2:58am
116
Who knows where that 204 # came from.
fix’d like a puppy from a rescue organization.
1 Like
1695814
September 10, 2024, 3:38am
117
Here are the results for week 1:
No. Player
3 PatientZombie 14-2
1 UltimateAnyone 13-3
5 TheArbitrary 13-3
6 1695814 13-3
14 Jahiegel 13-3
17 Mitch - TheBottomLineView 13-3
21 zConsensus 13-3
2 OutdoormanNowActuary 12-4
4 Funemployed 12-4
8 Vorian_Atreides 12-4
9 Ezekial_Cumberland 12-4
13 Mountainhawk 12-4
15 ldancer911 12-4
19 CoPilot 12-4
7 Kid_Rock 11-5
11 Carrie’s Carebears 11-5
12 3rookie 11-5
20 zAll Home Teams 11-5
10 redearedslider 9-7
16 IPD 9-7
18 Conor Orr 8-8
Congrats to @PatientZombie ! Kicking off the season with a stellar 14-2 record, you’ve set the pace for the rest of the field and claimed the coveted front-runner status in this prestigious game. For your sharp prediction skills, I’m pleased to award you the You’re Gonna’ Like the Pick You Made… I Guarantee It honor! As a reward, you can lock in one matchup from Week 18 as an automatic win—because when you pick, you guarantee greatness.
The default will be to guarantee your Jaguars over Colts pick. However, you can override the default by replying in this thread (preferred), sending a PM to @1695814 (also fine), or shooting an email to actuary1695814 [at] gmail (though it might disappear into the void). If you want to make a different pick, just let us know before the Thursday game kicks off. Otherwise, the default stands as your choice.
But hold on – there’s more! You’ve also snagged the coveted Change One Future Pick award. This lets you switch up one of your upcoming picks for any game down the line. Just make sure to declare it before kickoff of the game it affects. No pressure, though—you’re not obligated to use it, and it’ll expire at the end of the season if you don’t.
There will be no VA’s Lion’s Share Award, because, well, misery loves company.
Better refine that a little more, there, buddy.
Guarantee Dolphins over Jets - Thnx
1 Like
