The K shaped economy

I read that as Canadian rabbit at first.

They’re complaining on social media. Its the cost of groceries (and rent) that make them feel poor compared to 2019.

Disney hasn’t made things better by having an extremely popular annual pass (AP) program that results in lower gate receipts, which causes higher prices of single- or multi-day passes, which, in turn, causes more people to choose the AP and then go more frequently to “get their money’s worth.” which, then, causes the upgrading experiences to be offered.

Now the AP Prices are pretty high. Those who buy them are the “have’s” and center their vacations (if away), or more of their leisure time (if local, which most of them are), at the Parks.

I liken it to an annual gym membership – gyms love selling these, as more people generally don’t go than those that do – except that an AP is used VERY frequently by those who purchase them. 1 million passes sold/renewed annually, at one time. And this caters to the obsessed crowd. Some even brag about spending every day in the park, cuz mental, and cuz an online audience.

More like a “K-shaped strategy” by companies, not necessarily a goal of a government. Or, at least, shouldn’t be.

Social media causes people to hyperfocus on those things though. Many things are cheaper now (a lot of technology). And some things had been stagnant for years before 2019 (like housing). Maybe CPI numbers are extremely flawed, but its really hard to find things that support this stuff:

And I realize that stuff is a couple years old now…but just poking around trying to find interesting things.

They are a macro stat. Prices of things affect people based on what each buys, not what the average person buys. You don’t buy 10% of a car every year, yet the CPI includes car prices.
Yet, people think the CPI affects them precisely that amount.

Might be a little better to have CPI’s based on income quartiles. Or by Region. But that would require a government that actually cares.

ITA. When perception is based on relativity of what “the rich” look like–and a strong desire to “be rich” (at least look that way)–folks are going to feel more and more that their plight has gotten worse.

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Right. The thing that I am going to be upset about (and tell others) is the one thing that I need today that is now more expenseive than it was yesterday.

Oddly, while cars and homes are getting expensive, people still brag about buying them, regardless of the price.

CPI could be better, but I think it is still better than personal anecdotes, social media or otherwise.

Individuals generally do better finanically as time passes, which I find is still true with almost everyone I know. The exception is always the young people moving away from home becoming adults, where those large purchases are all hitting at a time when they are expensive. Houses were expensive in 2008 as well. Then they were cheap for the next 10 years.

Very interesting that the red “overall average” line is going down. Makes me wonder how the price of “ground turkey” would play out in this graph as I believe that it is the primary alternate to ground beef.

Google AI is telling me the rebalancing is primarily from beef to chicken. It is also telling me about a third of the index is beef. I guess that is mostly consistent with the chart.

Avian flu was a big story last year with chicken and egg prices? We heard about all that nonstop, now its just crickets. No one is celebrating the return of the $1.49 carton of eggs.

Is that “third beef” at the beginning or end? I don’t expect to see the overall average going down if the distribution remains the same (or at least wrt beef) . . . and I would still say that turkey prices will have an impact on that red line.

This graph tells the tale…

Money at higher %'s…is much harder to lose. It becomes a bit like monopoly money when you have enought 0’s after the 1 accummulated.

Thats the world we live in now. Wealth > Income.

The FT agrees:

https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/04ca98e5-1a16-4b49-a4d0-22a65309c197

I’ve been telling our kid, the only way to acquire wealth in adult life is to make your money work for you, so you can ride on the coattails of the rich.

Earning income is how to make enough to live.

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Eggs were spiking back in January 2025

By pure coincidence, I was at Universal Studios last year for the first time in 40 years. Rides have “vehicles” of some sort that carry riders. Every other vehicle is reserved for express ticket holders. The express line was much, much shorter than the regular line.

The total ride throughput is the same, but half the seats are reserved for the 20%(?) who bought express tickets, the other half for the 80%(?) who bought regular tickets.

Suppose a ride can handle 1000 per hour. If there are 500 riders during that hour, they can each ride twice (30 minute wait time).

Now say that 100 express ticketholders get half the seats - 500 per hour. They can each go 5 times (12 minute wait time).

The other 400 regular tickets get 500 seats per hour. That means they can each go 1.25 times in the hour. That’s a 48 minute wait time.

Looks to me like the 30 minute wait for regular tickets increased to 48 minutes and decreased to 12 minutes for express tickets.

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Mackinac Island is a long time tourist attraction, a city on an island in Lake Huron, essentially at the strait where Lake Michigan flows into Lake Huron.
It famously bans all cars and trucks. It’s all bicycles and horses. In my teens i used to bicycle up there myself…a long ride since I lived in Illinois. Visitors must ride a ferry to the island, leaving their cars behind.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/08/us/mackinac-island-michigan-ferry-dispute.html?unlocked_article_code=1.31A.1FWf.KhOV1bq0kanr&smid=nytcore-ios-share
TLDR
For years there were multiple ferrys servicing access from the mainland to the island. A private equity firm from Winnetka IL has bought all of them and consolidated the operations.
The tiny city had agreements in place with the prior carriers regarding prices and times of operation. Those agreements are now up for renegotiation. The newly formed monopoly, Hoffman Marine, is seeking higher prices to remain a viable business.
At the heart of the dispute is how much it should cost to get to Mackinac, and who should decide that price. As it stands, a round-trip boat ride for one adult costs around $40. Add in parking ($15 to $75 a day) and costs for bringing a bike on the boat ($21), and the total price tag can quickly add up.”

And “Hoffmann countered that its price increases had been below the rate of inflation, and said its ability to run a successful business was being threatened by the island’s regulatory efforts.”

So it’s off to court we go. The tiny city wants to maximize the number of visitors. The PE firm wants to maximize profits. The two goals were once in alignment when there was a competitive market for ferry service. Now that alignment is gone.

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