Super Bowl LV Prop Betting Game

The Sandbox Sports
1

Welcome back to this game, the always fun, never won by betting on the coin toss, SB Prop Bet game. You know the rules (oh wait, you probably don’t), you get 20 ArbyBucks to bet on whatever prop bets you want down below. Whoever has the most ArbyBucks at the end wins. (Note that 1 ArbyBuck = 7.35 AO$, a defunct currency in ArbyLand).

On to the betting options (being generous on the even money bets)…

Heads 5/4 (For rookies, if you bet 4 ABs and win you get your 4 ABs back and win 5 more)
Tails 5/4
KC -3 5/4
TB +3 5/4
Over/Under 56.5 (5/4 odds)
KC 2/3
TB 3/2

First TD
Kelce 6/1
Hill 6/1
Fournette 10/1
Evans 11/1
Godwin 13/1
Williams 13/1
CEH/Hardman/Jones/Gronk/ABrown all 17/1
Either QB 18/1
Any Other 20/1

Player O/U bets… now with parlays… (each is 5/4, parlay 2 and get 5/2, parlay 3 and get 5/1, parlay 4 and get 10/1)
Passing Yds
Mahomes 325.5
Brady 295.5
Rushing Yds
Fournette 48.5
Mahomes 19.5
Brady 1.5
Receiving Yards
Gronk 29.5
Hill 92.5
Kelce 94.5
Evans 63.5
Godwin 77.5

Fat Man TD?
Will an Offensive Lineman Score a TD? Yes 20/1, No 1/20
Will a Defensive Lineman Score a TD? Yes 8/1, No 1/20

MVP?
Mahomes 1/1
Brady 2/1
Hill/Kelce 12/1
Fournette/CEH 25/1
Evans/Godwin 20/1
Any Other Offensive Player 15/1
Any Defensive Player 20/1

Gatorade Color on Coach
Orange 3/2
Red 9/4
Green 5/2
Yellow 5/2
Water 8/1
Blue 8/1
Purple 10/1

Performances
Anthem Time O/U 1:59.5 5/4
First Song at Halftime:
Blinding Lights 7/4
Starboy 5/2
Pray for Me 5/2
Can’t Feel My Face 3/1
Total Songs O/U 7.5 Songs 5/4
Wardrobe Changes for Weeknd O/U 0.5 5/4
Will Ariana Grande be on stage for Halftime Show Yes 4/1, No 1/8
Will Doja Cat be on stage for Halftime Show Yes 4/1, No 1/8
Will Drake be on stage for Halftime Show Yes 4/1, No 1/8
Will Kenny G be on stage for Halftime Show Yes 4/1, No 1/7
Will the Weeknd mention Canada during the show? Yes 3/1, No 1/5
Will the Weeknd wear a “Canadian tuxedo” (blue jeans and matching jean jacket) Yes 3/1, No 1/5

Weird Stuff
Giselle mentioned O/U 1.5 (5/4)
Streaker on the field 9/1
Streaker is shown on TV 29/1
Streaker is identified as an actuary 69/1 (Gronk made these odds)
Game is delayed due to COVID concerns 12/1
Player/Coach sidelined due to the 'Rona 4/1

More could be added if I see them and have the time… looks like some bets are being held back (especially player props). If you see something you want to bet on let me know and I’ll get some odds up on it.

2

This creates all sorts of potential issues. Does it pay off if the only streaker is the one who placed the bet? Is it right to treat an actuary who posts on GoA different from a non-actuary who posts here? If there are two streakers, one an actuary and one not, does the bet pay off?

3

It does pay off if the streaker is the same person who paid the bet. I do believe this creates a situation where the better can take matters into their own hands (as they will have nothing else to keep their matters covered with).

As to equal treatment between actuaries and non-actuaries, I do believe the site name implies that actuaries should receive higher esteem within the confines of the site. However in the interest of fairness, if the non-actuary would like to take matters into their own hands, they simply must have their GoA name marked on their body in either clearly identifiable black Sharpie or a tastefully designed tramp stamp.

If there is more than one streaker, and any are identified as actuaries or have self-identified as GoA members, the bet pays off.

4

Another way of putting this:

If you bet $4, the house will place $5 in the pot; if you win, you get all $9. If you bet $6, the house will place $7.50 in the pot; if you win, you get all $13.50

5

$20 on Brady getting sacked at least 3 times.

6

15 ArbyBucks - KC -3 5/4

Fat Man TD?
1 ArbyBuck - Will a Defensive Lineman Score a TD? Yes 8/1

MVP?
1 ArbyBuck - Mahomes 1/1

Gatorade Color on Coach
2 ArbyBucks - Orange 3/2

Weird Stuff
1 ArbyBuck - Player/Coach sidelined due to the 'Rona 4/1

I think I did that right.
I think I did that. Right?
I think, “I did that right.”

I wonder what the exchange rate is for ArbyBucks to GoA£.

7

Guessing you want the Yes on FatMan TD?

And the exchange rate is the same as the ratio of leprechauns to unicorns.

8

Note, I updated the parlay odds. Was drinking when I put up the original post. Now that I’m thoroughly drunk I can do math again.

9

Yes, post edited to note that.

Well, then I’d also like to cash in my Schrute Bucks and Stanley Nickels to enter this fun-filled extravaganza of a game!

10

$20 Hill MVP 12/1

Edit to reflect mvp

11

Can I parlay any 5/4 bets, or only those player O/U bets?

12

all of it on 1st TD, other

13

$4 KC -3 @ 5/4
$4 Over 56.5 @ 5/4
$4 first TD CEH @ 17/1
$4 Parley of Mahomes over 325.5, Hill over 92.5 @ 5/2
$4 Brady MVP @ 2/1

14

Waiting on odds for this one.

15

You have to pick Hill or Kelce… I was just too lazy to split them out.

16

Well it wasn’t what I planned, but screw it, any 5/4 bets.

17

5/4… 4.5… I’ll give you 5/4 if you want to throw it in a parlay, 3/2 straight bet.

18

First TD
2 on Either QB 18/1
1 on Any Other 20/1

Player O/U bets… now with parlays… (each is 5/4, parlay 2 and get 5/2, parlay 3 and get 5/1, parlay 4 and get 10/1)
4 bet parlay 2 on
Passing Yds
Under Mahomes 325.5
Over Mahomes 19.5
Receiving Yards
Over Gronk 29.5
Over Kelce 94.5

MVP?
5 on Brady 2/1

8 on KC -3 5/4
2 on Can’t Feel My Face for first song 3/1

19

Keeping this as is but based on someone else’s question, if you want to parlay your 5/4 bets into a higher payout let me know.

20

I’ll leave it alone.