Well shit, TACO just happened when i was typing that out. Futures up 2.5%
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Open the strait or we destroy everything!
You destroy me I destroy you!
Well on second thought…
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It isn’t even Tuesday, when the 48 hrs were to be up!
You have x hours to edit your ultimatum, he was just getting it in before the edit window lapsed
I am convinced at this point that TACO is also done for market manipulation purposes.
Someone is making a lot of money trading insider info.
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It feels like “flood the zone” with economic policy. Tariffs are 10%, 1000%, 300%, we’re appropriating Venezuelan oil, bomb Iran a little bit, nationalize part of the superconductor industry, kidnap Venezuela’s President while people bet on it, drugs will be 1500% cheaper, sell TikTok to American oligarchs, go to war with Iran while anonymous betters make tens of millions of dollars.
Did somebody do an insider trade? Who f-ing knows; I can barely keep straight what’s blatantly occurred.
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You do you. Better to sell now than wait until you are down 20%. Myself I have decided to be more aggressive about trading in growth assets for dividends.
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Yeah, Trump’s buddies were tipped. I wonder how much they had to pay in campaign contributions and donations to the White House ballroom they paid for that info.
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I like this strategy. Lean in on dividends when the market is getting frothy and come back to the growth opportunities once things settle. Also, plenty of decent 6% bond ETFs and 3-4% dividend ETFs to generate returns even if stocks decline. If they do decline you can buy more for cheap.
A quote from the article: Earlier this year, House Administration Committee Chair Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) introduced a bill seeking to ban members of Congress from buying new stock but allow them to keep what they already own.
Of course it will never pass. If voters want to impact this behavior, they need to act at the ballot box.
Interesting view of private credit in the insurance context
Your retirement is collateral: the $3.8 trillion structured finance trade hiding inside US life insurance
Last week was brutal for my brokerage. It’s a stagflation scenario with rates up and economy down.
This week was better.
That chart doesn’t exactly scream “bond and equity returns are usually uncorrelated”. So them moving in tandem now doesn’t seem anomalous.
That said, the mantra “in the tail, correlations go to 100%” exists for a reason.
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It’s also only 2.5 years of data.
But also, typical Poly post: here is a chart + the most pessimistic interpretation (that requires a lot of squinting) possible.
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