Private capital was due for a rough patch. I think soon it will be time to buy Blackrock, Aries, Apollo etc. I’m not keen on the investments they offer but the companies packaging PC deals will continue to make a killing.
So I went back in and now I’m down $100K (but still up 55 for the year). Very tempting again to sit on the sidelines. Sometime tell me to stay in, or to pull half of everything…
Feels like the market went down because we didn’t get a reduction in interest rates?
Could have something to do with an orange clown causing global chaos. I don’t know, just a hunch.
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I’m sitting on a fair amount of cash in my investment accounts at the moment and continue to hold onto it. I don’t think we’ve hit that really bad day yet and Trump keeps on doing things to hurt the economy. He’s currently investigating Canada and a bunch of other countries for slave labour with the intent of applying tariffs. Perhaps when that happens?
I haven’t pulled anything out, but I also haven’t added anything in since November-ish. Just accruing cash until someone making major decisions appears to understand literally anything.
Pretty much the same, I’ve rotated to bonds over the past six or so months, and I’m buying a lot of BND and SCHD with my new money.
I put about 85% of my bonus money into TBIL. 10% into a China etf, and 5% into a health etf.
I have about 100k parked in TBIL, so looking for buying opportunities. It’s earning around 3.75 in the meantime.
Trump is talking a big game on Iran right now while delivering 0. Prediction: stocks decline 5% over the next week as this drags on, he will announce an end/ victory before next weekend, stocks will pop 3-4%, and by the following Monday everyone will watch oil continue to be a problem without a quick solution and we fall 10-15% by 6/1.
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I believe he will do so several times before next weekend.
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On Truth Social? For sure.
I’m thinking primetime address. “we have completely and massively won in a way that has never been seen before” with an announcement of a new “phase” that focuses on stabilizing the region with our new oil trading partner Iran.
Eh, he thinks the two are the same thing.
It’s been a brutal week for this portfolio. It has been for mine at least.
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It’s not great. At least I’m not 100% equities, I guess. Pretty rough across the board.
I suppose the consolation prize is I’m still up slightly on the year.
So, down 7-8% in the last month. Time to buy in with the dry powder or more to come?
That chart annoys me in that the blue line does not sit on/between the other two during MArch.
I also think that is a bit dated and undershoots the damage that has been done to oil infrastructure in the last week.
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I think of it as a minimum damage baseline scenario.
I don’t see this lasting less than 3 months.
Only way out is for India/China to negotiate a detente with Iran vs the West. They won’t trust anybody else.
Here is Qatar thinking along the same lines. They don’t see a short-term solution either
I sold off 7/8 of everything Thursday (leaving behind some energy and pipeline stocks and bonds) and am taking the sure 3.3%-3.6% day by day for now. At this point I am willing to sit out the volatility even if I lose out until the Iran War situation clearly turns around. I’ve been pretty happy to start out retirement +16% two years in and I’m good with being mostly out for now.
Listen to me I sound like an old person. Probably will turn into one soon enough.
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I mostly just pay attention to what is in my brokerage and let the retirement accounts do their thing. I’m 10 years off from touching that money.
Interest rates have been painful as they hit bonds and dividend etfs. Going to stay focused there, maybe shift TBIL over into corporate bonds and div etfs.
The fed rate cuts started in September. They are on hold right now. Markets bottom 6-7 months later. Iran is extending this out a bit. I’m thinking we get a panic day this week with a 5% drop before Trump starts his TACO.