Are multifamily properties more likely to have ARMs?
Haha yeah maybe loose underwriting
But recently purchased multifamily homes won’t show up as delinquent until after a multiple months of non payment so there will be some lag
Zero idea I’m just trying to think of why they thought rising mortgages rates would drive delinquencies
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I get it. I think your idea of rent delinquency is good, plus there is at least a chunk of these with ARMs.
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Could be immigration related. Immigrants would be more likely to move into MFH. The border was closed during COVID and regardless of what you think of Biden, he step up border enforcement during 2024. People could be walking away and moving back to the South.
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I’ll speculate it’s a result of investors purchasing new condos with the expectation of making rental income. Too many buy a low cost property, one of those Tiny Apartments, and then watch as the prices for the units plummet. A lot stay empty, leaving oversupply.
And if you bought the property because it only had a small negative cash flow hoping to cash in on the equity rise…well might be best to just hand over the keys. Sorta like a time share.
Moving back south or back to the south? Southern have been asking
Dropoff in tourism is on the Fed’s radar. Maybe interest rate declines are not far off if the US economy weakens further.
Just another data point: US is already in recession for an increasing slice of people.
Those BNPL loan stats are scary. The income inequality is staggering.
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That’s a data point about troubling financial trends in the US but does not support your conclusion.
Here is what they mentioned about recession.
"He stopped short of calling the results a recession indicator but said conditions are expected to decline further before they get better. "
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I’m kind of noticing it in my YouTube viewing. The travel vloggers I used to watch every week keep on taking more and more exclusive travel opportunities and they’ve become unrelatable to me. They started off as naive American international travelers who were living on nothing. Now they’re comparing the quality of the suites on the various international airlines or staying at resorts that cost multiple thousands of dollars a night. I could maybe, possibly get a trip in a suite if I played the airline mile game extremely hard. The resorts and the super luxury trips just don’t seem plausible. And then I remember the people with the private Boeing 787 or super yachts. While also remembering there’s people between those two levels who ride on chartered planes and ships and aspire to owning their own jet/yacht.
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Walking into the grocery store today, I encountered a guy barging out of the store through the security gate with a cart loaded with meat. My guess is he was stealing it to pay for drugs rather than out of desperation for food.
When I first started working in the 70s, there were folks who lived a luxe life but the amount of wealth shifting to that segment has measurably increased over the past 50 years. I don’t see how that level of income inequality can be sustained when many folks can’t afford food.
There was a great article in the NY Times a week or so ago about the incomes of partners at the big law firms. I was amazed at how many folks get 8 figure incomes from lawyering.
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This happens a lot in the UK (not necessarily for drugs: they resell the stolen meat and other higher value items) and they have now added additional security measures to try to stop it as the security guards didn’t usually try to stop them (quite a lot of shpppers have complained about this over time).
Same system as you see in Germany and Norway where you have to scan the final receipt at an additional sensor and you can then leave the secure areas after paying.
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It is not a recession indicator if simply viewed in isolation. But it is a component of the credit stress that you see in a K-shaped recovery (Biden and general inflation) turning into a recession (caused by Trump).
Also, when GDP grows by say 1%, the distributional effects of the rise in consumer spending (the bulk of what drives that 1%) are very much skewed to the top 10% earners in the US economy now (they are now responsible for 50% of the spending). Those BPNL loans targeting food tells you the bottom c30% are seriously struggling now. And while this may account for a smaller part of consumer spending (sub 20%) it points to the US getting much poorer at the bottom of the distribution.
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I went into an Aldi in Prague and was temporarily trapped when I decided not to buy anything. (I was looking for a good reusable grocery bag as a practical souvenir) finally got one, cost me one whole euro.
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The Dow isn’t looking to reverse anything. It’s just a linear combination of individual stock prices. I wish they wouldn’t frame it like they do.
So it’s showing poor Americans are getting poorer, not that the US is now in a recession.
I can agree with that.
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Had not heard much about student loans in the US recently until I saw some stats today in the NY Times: 42 million people with student loans totalling $1.6 trillion. Is that a serious concern for the US economy?
Canadian student debt is about 1% of that figure so not much of an issue here.
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