The US has also ruined our credibility with regards to mutually beneficial trade deals. In the future, if a deal with the US has the potential to go downhill should the US renege, Canada and other countries will think it over much more carefully.
Just got back from Costco. We sure do get a lot of food here from Guatemala…
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Totally. If Mark Carney is our PM after next week he is not going to make any significant concessions to get a trade deal with the US. He has “moved on” from the historical close relationship as the US has zero credibility at this stage. The UK needs to wake up.
If you start seeing meat from El Salvador, maybe pass on that.
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He has made 0 deals in 3 weeks, right? He’s losing leverage quickly as the rest of the world is making decisions that leave out the US.
You will see a handful of deals/announcements in the next month or so that mostly involve promises by US companies to move some jobs to the US from overseas. The 90 day pause on tariffs will never be unpaused, and we will go back to mostly status quo with Europe, North America, Japan, and Korea with a 10% tariff remaining on automobiles and appliances.
The market is pricing in this outcome - real damage to the economy for 2 years with little long term benefit.
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From a lot of reporting I’ve seen, the Trump admin is barely trying to make trade deals:
They’re just doing tariffs and throwing a child’s tantrum “until countries stop ripping us off”, while doing nothing beneficial.
Seems increasingly likely. I’m mostly curious where we’ll end up regarding China. If we continue to tax ourselves out of Chinese imports and in exchange they tax our exports, we’ll gradually decouple our economies.
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I’m thinking their could be a decent opportunity in selling Chinese appliances to Americans at duty free stores in Canada. The difficulty might be that Americans largely don’t seem to want to travel out of the U.S.
Real negotiations? With other countries? Of course not. Bullies stomp until they get something they think makes them look good. Trump wants to show up at Ford and Whirlpool to break ground on a new factory that will move 10% of their foreign production to the US. A real deal on paper won’t give him much to show for it - that isn’t a job created, which is why we are going through all this nonsense right now.
He looks a the stock market and thinks it is reversible. DEAL MARKET UP! Doesnt matter we are 15-20% off where Biden left it.
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Is it easy to find the difference in activity between retail investors and institutional? Has one group outperformed the other historically?
Or back to 5500.
Don’t jinx us
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Or both, because you know at some point Trump is going to blow everything up again.
Trump fires Powell, S&P 4850
Interest rates of -1%, S&P 6000
Another 145% of tariffs, S&P 4500
This is how stable countries function.
Poly has posted that, but what is driving it? The previous increases happened during a recession. We didn’t have an official recession in 22-24, but we did have inflation. Is that it?
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Side effect of higher mortgage rates, perhaps?
That should only be the case for those with adjustable rate mortgages and short teaser rate term
I feel like it should have more to do with tenants not paying rent for various reasons
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…or for newly-acquired (or “acquired since mortgage rates went up”) properties.
I don’t know what the turnover rate is for ownership of rental properties, but… 